LT,
Good discussion and it seems you thought about some of these factors too. Not to quibble too much but your conclusion that being selected involves a criminal that is "statistically novel" and is "specifically set on administering special negative treatment" hits a sour note with me.
Your quote was...
What you must understand is that your entire scenario is extremely weighted in that you have set specific parameters for the criminal encounter.
1. The criminal is statistically novel and is personally invested in the crime.
2. The crime encounter is novel and lasts longer than is statistically likely.
3. The criminal is specifically set on administering special negative treatment and is looking for victims in a novel and statistically irrelevant way.
When taking these factors into consideration, then yes, this philosophy of Blending In will help to deflect attention from yourself. But the General Rule that will statistically serve you much better in the long run states that:
1. The criminal will be garden-variety and want 2 things: Target + Escape.
2. The crime encounter will be over quickly, lasting only a few seconds.
3. The criminal will choose their victims based on likelihood of high payout + minimal risk of danger, resistance, or capture.
4. Anything deviating from these premises is therefore novel and thus the likelihood of their occurrence is inversely related to how many exceptions are applied to this rule.
When taking these factors into consideration, we can see that by looking like you are not an easy target both physically and behaviorally, you are much less likely to get ANY type of negative attention from the much more statistically likely criminals that you will encounter, thus serving to decrease your overall personal conflicts much more efficiently.
First, I posit that any criminal is personally invested in the crime he commits against another person. His belief is that he will control you through fear and you will thus do what he wants (hand over wallet). If you disrespect him, laugh at him, he may then injure you out of anger.
The "grey man" relies on the
school-of-fish theory that if you blend in to the crowd or background, when the predator strikes, he is likely to select a closer, gaudy or eye-catching target. You are virtually unnoticed or indistinguishable as a unique individual amonst many. On the other hand, if you are walking alone or one of only a few, you may be selected anyhow.
This will work on the street where the predator is looking for someone who stands out as successful or having money -- or at least likely to have valuables. It also works should you be in a grocery (liquor or convenience) store that's being robbed. You look like the unassuming Joe who isn't a hero or a big threat to his actions.
I agree that we are most likely to meet the garden variety thief who wants your watch and wallet. But we must also guard against being too visible when that
statistical oddity comes along -- the guy who comes into Dwight's church to assassinate his ex-wife and her family; or as recently happened target specific people at his employer. In those cases, you want to "blend in" or appear to be "low threat" to him. That way, when his focus is elsewhere you can hopefully end the conflict rapidly.