Oil going out of style?
For me, gasoline is not a significant cost compared to housing and medical, and comes in somewhere around other utilities and food. Interestingly, I heard on the radio today that the peak prices (after adjustment for inflation) were back in 1980, and that we would need to get up around $3.10-$3.20 to match the prices then in today's dollars.
Certainly, crude oil prices have gone up a lot in the past few years - here's about 8 years price history for light sweet crude oil, and there is an approximate tripling in raw material price:
So, no matter how you slice it, gasoline prices have got to go up to follow crude oil prices. As someone noted though, there nevertheless does seem to be increased profits for oil companies, which suggest they are raising prices on a schedule that does better than recoup their costs. I wouldn't mind some attention to be paid to this by our government, but with two oilmen at the top, won't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
While I think that some government oversight would reduce prices somewhat, with the raw materials going up so quickly, I fear the effect would still be limited.
As far as making more domestic oil available to ease supplies... the US has already harvested the bulk of it's oil, and what's still left will be costlier to get out. Even the much discussed Arctic National Wildlife Refuge doesn't hold much oil from a strategic perspective. According to the most recent assessment done by the US Geological Survey (1998):
The total quantity of technically recoverable oil within the entire assessment area is estimated to be between 5.7 and 16.0 billion barrels (95-percent and 5-percent probability range), with a mean value of 10.4 billion barrels. Technically recoverable oil within the ANWR 1002 area (excluding State and Native areas) is estimated to be between 4.3 and 11.8 billion barrels (95-and 5-percent probability range), with a mean value of 7.7
billion barrels.
See:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.pdf
So, without considering
economic feasibility of extraction, there is about 10.4B barrels of oil available for exploitation in the entire ANWR region. That sounds huge, until you go to the US Department of Energy, and look at US oil consumption. US refineries process about 16M barrels per day, which is about 5.84B barrels per year - so a fair estimate is less than 2 years consumption in the entire ANWR region.
See:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html
Additionally, it will take at least a decade to get that oil out.
Noone wants to face it, but oil supplies are declining. Most of it is already gone. That means prices in the long run can only increase - there is no other possible outcome. Higher oil prices will drive the market towards conservation, and exploitation of other sources of energy. At an individual level, conservation is where you should be looking.