This was posted on another forum and it will either confirm what some of you already know, blow your minds, or you can keep denying the truth.
Before anyone only looks at the 9mm, .40, and .45 numbers (the most popular rounds) and declare how the .40 and .45 still has an "edge" compare the numbers to .380 and smaller calibers. That doesn't mean I'm gonna switch to the .380 or .32 just that there really isn't that much of a difference. It really is true. Handguns only poke holes. All handguns generally suck about equally.
Before anyone only looks at the 9mm, .40, and .45 numbers (the most popular rounds) and declare how the .40 and .45 still has an "edge" compare the numbers to .380 and smaller calibers. That doesn't mean I'm gonna switch to the .380 or .32 just that there really isn't that much of a difference. It really is true. Handguns only poke holes. All handguns generally suck about equally.This was posted by Greg Ellifritz, TDI Instructor/Staff
Firearm Stopping Power…a different perspective.
I’ve been interested in firearm stopping power for a very long time. I remember reading Handguns magazine back in the late 1980s when Evan Marshall was writing articles about his stopping power studies. When Marshall’s first book came out in 1992, I ordered it immediately, despite the fact that I was a college student and really couldn’t afford its $39 price tag. Over the years I bought all of the rest of Marshall’s books as well as anything else I could find on the subject. I even have a first edition of Gunshot Injuries by Louis Lagarde published in 1915.
Every source I read has different recommendations. Some say Marshall’s data is genius. Some say it is statistically impossible. Some like big heavy bullets. Some like lighter, faster bullets. There isn’t any consensus. The more I read, the more confused I get. One thing I remember reading that made a lot of sense to me was an article by Massad Ayoob. He came out with his own stopping power data around the time Marshall published Handgun Stopping Power. In the article Ayoob took his critics to task. He suggested that if people didn’t believe his data, they should collect their own and do their own analysis. That made sense to me. So that’s just what I did.
Over a 10-year period, I kept track of stopping power results from every shooting I could find. I talked to the participants of gunfights, read police reports, attended autopsies, and scoured the newspapers, magazines, and Internet for any reliable accounts of what happened to the human body when it was shot. I documented all of the data I could; tracking caliber, type of bullet (if known), where the bullet hit and whether or not the person was incapacitated. I also tracked fatalities, noting which bullets were more likely to kill and which were not. It was an exhaustive project, but I’m glad I did it and I’m happy to report the results of my study here.
Before I get to the details, I must give a warning. I don’t have any dog in this fight! I don’t sell ammo. I’m not being paid by any firearm or ammunition manufacturer. I carry a lot of different pistols for self defense. Within the last 2 weeks, I’ve carried a .22 magnum, a .380 auto, a .38spl revolver, 3 different 9mm autos and a .45 auto. I don’t have an axe to grind. If you are happy with your 9mm, I’m happy for you. If you think that everyone should be carrying a .45 (because they don’t make a .46), I’m cool with that too. I 'm just reporting the data. If you don’t like it, take Mr. Ayoob’s advice….do a study of your own.
A few notes on terminology…
Since it was my study, I got to determine the variables and their definitions. Here’s what I looked at:
• Number of people shot
• Number of rounds that hit
• On average, how many rounds did it take for the person to stop his violent action or be incapacitated? For this number, I included hits anywhere on the body.
• What percentage of shooting incidents resulted in fatalities. For this, I included only hits to the head or torso.
• What percentage of people were not incapacitated no matter how many rounds hit them
• Accuracy. What percentage of hits was in the head or torso. I tracked this to check if variations could affect stopping power. For example, if one caliber had a huge percentage of shootings resulting in arm hits, we may expect that the stopping power of that round wouldn’t look as good as a caliber where the majority of rounds hit the head.
• One shot stop percentage- number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall’s number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number.
• Percentage of people who were immediately stopped with one hit to the head or torso
Here are the results.
.25ACP-
# of people shot- 68
# of hits- 150
% of hits that were fatal- 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.2
% of people who were not incapacitated- 35%
One-shot-stop %- 30%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 62%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 49%
.22 (short, long and long rifle)
# of people shot- 154
# of hits- 213
% of hits that were fatal- 34%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.38
% of people who were not incapacitated- 31%
One-shot-stop %- 31%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 60%
.32 (both .32 long and .32 acp)
# of people shot- 25
# of hits- 38
% of hits that were fatal- 21%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.52
% of people who were not incapacitated- 40%
One-shot-stop %- 40%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 78%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 72%
.380 ACP
# of people shot- 85
# of hits- 150
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.76
% of people who were not incapacitated- 16%
One-shot-stop %- 44%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 62%
.38 Special
# of people shot- 199
# of hits- 373
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.87
% of people who were not incapacitated- 17%
One-shot-stop %- 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 55%
9mm Luger
# of people shot- 456
# of hits- 1121
% of hits that were fatal- 24%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.45
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 34%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 74%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 47%
.357 (both magnum and Sig)
# of people shot- 105
# of hits- 179
% of hits that were fatal- 34%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.7
% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%
One-shot-stop %- 44%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 61%
.40 S&W
# of people shot- 188
# of hits- 443
% of hits that were fatal- 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.36
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 45%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 52%
.45 ACP
# of people shot- 209
# of hits- 436
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.08
% of people who were not incapacitated- 14%
One-shot-stop %- 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 85%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 51%
.44 Magnum
# of people shot- 24
# of hits- 41
% of hits that were fatal- 26%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.71
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 59%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 88%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 53%
Rifle (all Centerfire)
# of people shot- 126
# of hits- 176
% of hits that were fatal- 68%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.4
% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%
One-shot-stop %- 58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 80%
Shotgun (All, but 90% of results were 12 gauge)
# of people shot- 146
# of hits- 178
% of hits that were fatal- 65%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.22
% of people who were not incapacitated- 12%
One-shot-stop %- 58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 84%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 86%
Some interesting findings:
I think the most interesting statistic is the percentage of people who stopped with one shot to the torso or head. There wasn’t much variation between calibers. Between the most common defensive calibers (.38, 9mm, .40, and .45) there was a spread of only eight percentage points. No matter what gun you are shooting, you can only expect a little more than half of the people you shoot to be immediately incapacitated by your first hit.
The average number of rounds until incapacitation was also remarkably similar between calibers. All the common defensive calibers required around 2 rounds on average to incapacitate. Something else to look at here is the question of how fast can the rounds be fired out of each gun. The .38spl probably has the slowest rate of fire (long double action revolver trigger pulls and stout recoil in small revolvers) and the fewest rounds fired to get an incapacitation (1.87). Conversely the 9mm can probably be fired fastest of the common calibers and it had the most rounds fired to get an incapacitation (2.45). The .40 (2.36) and the .45 (2.08) split the difference. It is my personal belief that there really isn’t much difference between each of these calibers. It is only the fact that some guns can be fired faster than others that causes the perceived difference in stopping power. If a person takes an average of 5 seconds to stop after being hit, the defender who shoots a lighter recoiling gun can get more hits in that time period. It could be that fewer rounds would have stopped the attacker (given enough time) but the ability to fire more quickly resulted in more hits being put onto the attacker. It may not have anything to do with the stopping power of the round.
Another data piece that leads me to believe that the majority of commonly carried defensive rounds are similar in stopping power is the fact that all four have very similar failure rates. If you look at the percentage of shootings that did not result in incapacitation, the numbers are almost identical. The .38, 9mm, .40, and .45 all had failure rates of between 13% and 17%.
Now compare the numbers of the handgun calibers with the numbers generated by the rifles and shotguns. For me there really isn’t a stopping power debate. All handguns suck! If you want to stop someone, use a rifle or shotgun!
What matters even more than caliber is shot placement. Across all calibers, if you break down the incapacitations based on where the bullet hit you will see some useful information.
Head shots = 75% immediate incapacitation
Torso shots = 41% immediate incapacitation
Extremity shots (arms and legs) = 14% immediate incapacitation.
No matter which caliber you use, you have to hit something important in order to stop someone!
Conclusion
This study took me a long time and a lot of effort to complete. Despite the work it took, I'm glad I did it. The results I got from the study lead me to believe that there really isn't that much difference between most defensive handgun rounds and calibers. None is a death ray, but most work adequately...even the lowly .22s. I've stopped worrying about trying to find the “ultimate” bullet. There isn't one. And I've stopped feeling the need to strap on my .45 every time I leave the house out of fear that my 9mm doesn't have enough “stopping power”. Folks, carry what you want. Caliber really isn't all that important.
Take a look at the data. I hope it helps you decide what weapon to carry. No matter which gun you choose, pick one that is reliable and train with it until you can get fast accurate hits. Nothing beyond that really matters!
A "little" about Greg...
Greg Ellifritz is a 16-year veteran police officer, spending the last 11 years as the fulltime tactical training officer for his central Ohio agency. In that position, he is responsible for developing and instructing all of the in-service training for a 57-officer police department. Prior to his training position, he served as patrol officer, bike patrol officer, precision marksman, and field training officer for his agency.
He has been an active instructor for the Tactical Defense Institute since 2001 and a lead instructor for TDI’s ground fighting, knife fighting, impact weapons, active shooter, and extreme close quarters shooting classes.
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