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the 125gr .357 Magnum, assuming that the shooter can handle the recoil, would be a more effective loading than the 124gr 9mm
Well, then. The only substantial difference between those two bullets is velocity. Game over.
Not really. As I explained earlier, velocity was only one part of the equation. The old .357 Magnum loadings had reputations for effectiveness not only at 1450fps from a 4" or longer barrel, but also at 1200-1300 from a 2-3" barrel. That is, of course, the same velocity range as a 124gr 9mm +P, so why then did the .357 still have such a fearsome reputation? The answer, I think is that the design of the bullet used was such that fragmentation was still occurring even at the reduced velocity. The biggest difference in performance between a 4"+ barrel and a snub was that the snub probably gave a bit more penetration.
That is a really good breakdown of what becomes of the 357 MAG once in the body. Essentially the engineered limits of the bullet have been exceeded when fragmentation occurs, as I doubt it was designed that way. While that may make a horrible wound channel, or channels, there does not seem to be a stopping problem with the similar sized 357 SIG bullet, which was engineered not to fragment on impact.
Actually, certain .357 Sig loadings are able to behave quite similarly to the older .357 Magnum loadings. Cor-Bon's 125gr loading, for example, shows shockingly similar performance.
http://www.brassfetcher.com/index_files/Page608.htm
As far as other .357 SIG loadings that don't fragment, they have good reputations because they work well. Of course, there are also many loadings in 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP that work very well also. Are some of these loadings better than others? Sure they are but that doesn't mean that one is totally inadequate.
Also, remember that a lot of the development in non-fragmenting .357 Sig loadings was done very early on in the cartridge's development. When it first debuted in 1994, the .357 Sig was simply driving then-current 9mm bullets at .357 Magnum velocities. This was a period in time in which even 9mm loadings were just barely able to maintain adequate penetration along with expansion. When the same bullets were driven 200-300fps faster, they too-often fragmented violently and rapidly or at the very least over-expanded an wrapped their petals back around the base of the bullet. The bullet makers, at that time, simply did not have technology to make a 9mm bullet that could fragment in the same way that .357 Magnum bullets could (something that's still extremely difficult to do), so they had to settle for the next best thing: expansion with little or no fragmentation.
The problem with comparing the reputations of the .357 Magnum and .357 Sig is that, by and large, they haven't been used side-by-side. What I mean by this is that by the time .357 Sig gained much popularity with police, the days of the police revolver, and thus the .357 Magnum's use by cops, was already pretty well over. The reputation of a cartridge's effectiveness is typically based on how it performs in comparison to the other cartridges in common use at the time. In the .357 Sig's case, such cartridges would include 9mm, .40 S&W and .45 ACP against which it stacks up quite favorably.
.357 Magnum, on the other hand, had a somewhat different set of contemporaries to be compared against. At the time of the .357 Magnum's greatest popularity among police, the other common service cartridges for it to be compared against were .38 Special, 9mm, 10mm, and .45 ACP. .357 Magnum was unquestionably head and shoulders above both .38 Special and 9mm both because of it's better ballistics and because of the rather primitive bullets available at the time (remember, in the 1980's Winchester Silvertips were cutting edge). The interesting thing, however, is that .357 Magnum was still considered to be "king of the hill" even when compared with .45 ACP and 10mm Auto loadings such as the Speer 200gr "Flying Ashtray" .45 load and the Norma 170gr JHP 10mm load which could, even with the primitive bullets available, still perform adequately by today's standards. These .45 and 10mm loadings were able to at least get "in the ballpark" in terms of kinetic energy compared to .357 Magnum (the Speer load produced 400-450fpe while the Norma load produced 600-650fpe) and both penetrated well enough, but neither fragmented like the .357 Magnum could.
Given the above, fragmentation can be somewhat ruled out or least significantly discounted as a factor in stopping power, which leaves velocity as the main causal factor to immediate incapacitation. Which is, of course, what happens to most folks hit by lightning bolts.
Fragmentation has been demonstrated to have significant effect on incapacitation through Fackler's observations about fragmenting rifle bullets. Unfortunately, most of the best work on handgun effectiveness was done after the .357 Magnum had fallen out of favor with police, or at least near the end of its popularity. Because of this, about the extent of our knowledge about the cartridge is that it works very well, but the reasons why have remained somewhat unclear. In looking at the information that is available, however, I can't see any reason to believe that the effects cause by fragmenting rifle bullets would not also happen on a smaller scale (due to the difference in kinetic energy and thus temporary cavity) with a handgun bullet that fragments in a similar fashion.
What is often misunderstood, I think, is that not all fragmentation is the same. As I said before, most semi-auto cartridges fragment in a way that is not desirable. From what I've seen and read, about the only way to get useful fragmentation out of a semi-auto bullet is to drive a "tough" medium-to-heavy weight JHP like a Hornady XTP or Speer Gold Dot fast enough to slightly exceed it's designed velocity window. Unfortunately, very few semi-auto cartridges are capable of driving bullets of that weight that fast, .357 Sig and 10mm are about the only two common semi-auto cartridges I can think of that seem to be able to do it, and even they can only do so in a few loadings. At the velocities attained by most semi-auto handguns, the bullets that are available seem to either fragment too rapidly or they don't fragment much at all. I think you're probably right in that the 125gr .357 bullets probably weren't specifically designed to fragment the way they do, but I think that the ammo makers did simply stumble on to something that happens to work very, very well. It certainly wouldn't be the first or last time that something good was discovered by accident.
Revolvers, however, are capable of using bullets that semi-autos can't. With a semi-jacketed hollowpoint, the "sweet spot" of velocity between overly rapid fragmentation and lack of fragmentation seems to be much lower and have a much wider window for a given bullet weight than with a fully-jacketed hollowpoint commonly used in a semi-auto.
Personally, I prefer to drop down in 357 MAG velocity to 1250 fps and go up in weight to 158 grains, approximating a similar 155 grain 40 S&W load. Since I shoot it through a three inch barrel, you can lop off another 1000 fps, and there you have it: The Super Police 38/44 as developed by Elmer Keith and associates in response to police demand for something bigger than 38 Special.
Make no mistake, the 125gr SJHP loadings aren't the only good .357 Magnum loads available. In my own informal testing (shooting wet and dry catalogs), I've found that it isn't particularly difficult to get Remington Express 158gr SJHP or Winchester 145gr Silvertips to shed their jackets either. The performance of the 158gr Remington loading in particular is strikingly reminiscent of the Remington 125gr loading (unsurprising as both bullets use the same basic construction). The only significant difference that I've been able to see between the 125gr and 158gr Remington loadings is that the 158gr does basically the same thing as the 125 but at a deeper penetration depth. While I've not tested them, I would expect similar results from the 125 and 158gr Federal loadings because they have the same reputation and similar construction to the Remingtons. Actually, I have long been a proponent of the heavier .357 Magnum loadings particularly from a short barrel because they seem to "lose" less velocity than their lighter counterparts.
The only real problem with 158gr .357 Magnums is, like the Texas DPS found, some of them don't expand particularly well and as such you have to be somewhat picky about them. A prime example of this is the 158gr Speer Gold Dot. This loading seems to be designed as a dual-purpose self-defense/hunting load and does not expand nearly as aggressively as Gold Dots in other calibers and weights. One gelatin test that I saw showed a 158gr .357 Mag Gold Dot fired from a 2 1/2" barrel. While the bullet did expand, it only expanded to a somewhat disappointing .5" or so and the velocity was an equally disappointing 1000-1050fps (I prefer at least 1100-1150fps from that weight). The reason for this, I suspect, is that Speer engineered both the bullet and powder burn rate for longer barrels commonly used for hunting. Because of this, I would not recommend the 158gr Gold Dot in anything less than a 4" barrel.
But alas, since the gun has fallen out of favor with law enforcement, data from police shootings with the 357 MAG and modern hollowpoints are virtually non-existent. We will never really know which is the best in class, the 125 grain or the 158 grain 357 MAG.
You're absolutely right about that. Even more so, it is unfortunate that we don't have much testing data on any .357 Magnum loadings, old or new, with the exception of a few downloaded "low recoil" loadings like Remington's 125gr Golden Saber or Speer's 135gr Short Barrel Gold Dot. From what little information I've been able to dig up over the years, it appears to me that both the 125gr and 158gr .357 Magnum loadings (as well as a few in between) have much to offer and that the difference in performance between them is not huge (this is unsurprising because the kinetic energy and bullet constructions between them is quite similar). While I'm not one to take the Marshall & Sanow numbers too literally (I think there are too many variables to come up with a concrete one-shot-stop figure), I do note that both the 125gr and 158gr .357 Magnum loadings scored very high and that the numbers on them were based on large amounts of data. While I don't think that we can absolutely say that these loadings will give you a concrete xx% chance of incapacitation with a single shot, I do think that we can safely say that these loadings are very, very effective.
I am a bit hopeful though. Revolvers seem to be making something of a comeback, particularly small CCW-oriented snubs. It is my hope that, with the renewed interest in revolvers perhaps we will see not only resurrected interest in excellent revolver cartridges by the ammo makers but also perhaps some new testing and interest from the terminal ballistics people. We are, actually, already seeing this to some degree as both .38 Special and .45 Long Colt have been the topics of great interest over the past few years. I can only hope that such interest will spread to other cartridges like .357 Magnum, .41 Magnum, .44 Special, and .44 Magnum as I think these are often overlooked even though they have much to offer.