Distances involved in shooting instances by LAPD, etc.

One thing that is really interesting. If you compare the NYC and LA data, the differences are pretty striking.

Looking at cumulative data for LAPD 2010 shootings:

12% took place at a distance of 10 ft or less
37% took place at a distance of 20 ft or less
86% took place at a distance of 60 ft or less

Looking at the NYPD 2010 shootings:

65% took place at a distance of 10 ft or less
89% took place at a distance of 20 ft or less
100% took place at a distance of 60 ft or less

The differences in distance are highly significant between two large well trained police depts. This tells me that small changes in circumstance and location can play a big role in police shooting distance. In other words, if the NY and LA data had been very similar, I would conclude that there was probably a lot of commonality between urban police departments all over the US. But that is not the case at all.

Because there is such a large difference between NY and LA police data, I would be very hesitant to extrapolate either data set to other police departments. I would also be very hesitant to extrapolate either data set to non-police self defense shootings.

Jim
 
This is an outlier example even for LE shootings.
Click to expand...

This is an interesting discussion, but all the information provided seems to be outliers. As a retired financial executive that was responsible for financial forecasting (for large corporations) one of the things you find out very fast is that you have to be better than the local weather man in making your forecasts for the year ahead.

So you use empirical data (history) but as many have mentioned you throw out the outliers whether it is 10% above and below or 20% above or below your bell curve. The other criteria is that the data sets have to be for the same information, apples to apples or oranges to oranges, comparing apples to oranges just does not give good results. The third criteria is that the data sets have to be large enough to provide a statistical probability (80%) of correctness. A data set of 100 points is definitely not usable sometimes a data set of 1,000 points is also too small depending on the population (history) of the graph like when forecasting $150,000,000 in sales.

So of the 350,000,000 people or so here in the USA, at what distance and how many will have to defend themselves tomorrow I really can't say from the information provided, but I can tell you we will have 5 inches of snow tomorrow (LOL).

Jim
 
Last edited:
I just finished reading through the LAPD report, and I think either I missed (I went back and still cant find it), or it was not in the report, which is how many of the incidents in question involved more than one officer discharging a firearm? If anyone can point that out to me, I would appreciate it.

I don't doubt the LAPD/NYPD stats listed by btmj, though I don't think they would be typical of my small area, in that most of the shootings I remember here over the years involved multiple officers, and varying distances before it was resolved, which would account for 7 incidents (either barricaded suspects, or armed suspect pursued on foot by multiple officers). Events involving one officer and one suspect are more the exception in my area, of which I can only think of 2.

Comparing that to the non-LE self defense incidents, all the ones I remember over the years the majority are close distances, mostly conversation distance (robbery/assault) or across the room distance (break ins), and all of which involve just one person discharging a weapon.
 
Hi Fishing Cabin...

I did not look at the online reports, I just put the data presented in posts 1 and 18 into a cumulative form... percentage from 0 to 10 feet, percentage from 0 to 20 feet, etc.

My point was that there was so much difference between the Los Angeles and New York data that I don't think the data is applicable outside of, well, LA and NY. If similar police shooting data was gathered from Chicago, Houston, Atlanta, Boston, and Miami, would it look like NY, or like LA, or would each city be unique? my guess is each city would be unique, and there would probably be variations from year to year in the same city.

I tend to think that we can draw no real conclusion from this data regarding armed citizen self defense shootings.

I also tend to think that the vast majority of armed citizen self defense shootings are within 25 feet. No proof, just my opinion...

Jim
 
btmj,

I mentioned this earlier in reference to the difference between the distance figures from NYC and LA. One is a city of 700 miles of subway track, 10 story apartment buildings with thousands of tenants that stretch for miles crammed on a small island surrounded by boroughs of a good deal of the same and close packed brick single family homes. The other a place stretched out over 469 square miles of single family dwellings surround and chain link fences, strip malls, and freeways. It's hard to visit L.A. for even a few days without seeing a car chase on live TV spread out over 50 miles of freeway and often more. You don't see that live entertainment in N.Y.

In general cops "roll up" on folks in L.A. They walk up in N.Y.

tipoc
 
btmj said:
My point was that there was so much difference between the Los Angeles and New York data that I don't think the data is applicable outside of, well, LA and NY. If similar police shooting data was gathered from Chicago, Houston, Atlanta, Boston, and Miami, would it look like NY, or like LA, or would each city be unique? my guess is each city would be unique, and there would probably be variations from year to year in the same city.

I tend to think that we can draw no real conclusion from this data regarding armed citizen self defense shootings.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree that there is no real conclusion from the data, as presented. If one did gather the needed data from the major cities, it would more than likely only be comparable to similar sized cities. More rural areas with only a few deputies or a small town with 1-3 officers would not fit the same mold as compared to a larger city, since the actions would be different considering they have a much smaller amount of manpower/resources, save for large active events when assisted by other nearby departments. Try to compare self defense incidents by non-LE as well, and the results would be even murkier.
 
Hal said:
For your average gun enthusiast, that's probably twice the number needed -

On the whole, cops aren't real good shots.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, your average gun enthusiast thinks he's twice as good a shot as he actually is, so I'm guessing it evens out. :D
 
I did not look at the online reports, I just put the data presented in posts 1 and 18 into a cumulative form... percentage from 0 to 10 feet, percentage from 0 to 20 feet, etc.
Click to expand...

Often when they present whole reports there is other information in them that can help a fella understand.

But, the reports don't try to draw broader implications from them then what they do. They are not meant to help civilian shooters figure out how they should train. They are meant to recap what the departments preparing the reports did and draw what conclusions for them that they can from one year to the next. They are also reports to the public on how they performed their jobs or not and fulfill a responsibility to the people that they are supposed to serve.

So you learn from them what you can but don't expect the reports to show you what they were not intended to. What they do show is interesting and useful enough.

tipoc
 
The vast majority of cops I know think way less about their gun than they do their footwear or flashlight.

They're perfectly content if they can qualify.
Click to expand...

A target shooting bud of mine, is now a retired State Trooper, but I asked him about the attitudes of State Troopers toward their firearms and firearm skills.

He told me of several instances where he checked on the condition of the pump shotgun in Police Cruisers and the things were effectively rusted shut. The average Police man, thank God, is really is not interested in getting into gun fights and their shooting skills reflect a live and let live attitude.

I say thank God, because there are people in the Armed Services who want to go in harms way, and I mean, really, really, want to go in harms way, and if you have ever met them, you noticed it was questionable whether they have the patience to take the sort of abuse that regular Policemen take on a regular basis, and the trunk of their squad car would probably be filled with bodies after each shift.
 
I think you're really selling both the police and military short on that one.

Fire teams in Iraq and Afganistan have constant contact with less than enthusiastic civilians, yet we don't keep creating new Mai Lai massacres. Being an aggressive soldier isn't the same as being psychopathic killer.
 
AMEN BROTHER.

The warrior who yearns for a battle is just like a through- bred race horse.

Any 20-25 year old that has spent YEARS training to be the top of their field wants to test himself. Doesnt mean hes a crazed killer

I take issue with that statement
 
One of the ladies in my firearms class has a daughter the graduated from Syracuse University with a Masters in Forensic Firearm Investigation.

She's been coming to my class so tonight I discussed the "shooting distance" article with her.

She's studied and conducted thousands of test determining shooting distance. She told me a huge majority of civilian involved shooting was 5-6 feet. LE is handed different in the lab, but roughly, the move out to 15 feet for most. Another category where the suspect had long arms, the distance for LE moved to 30 feet.

Based on her studies and experience the 3-3-3 rule is valid. Her finding pretty much matched my experience of 20 years in LE and my CSI work (though not near as extensive as hers).

So file the into "the what its worth department".
 
Wait, what?

If there is one thing we can take away from this discussion is that the .40 really is better than the 9mm and the .45.

Glad we finally put that one to bed. :p
 
so 91% involved 10 shots or less?

my commander has 8+1=9. that should suffice for my needs without having to haul spare mags everywhere i go.
 
... my commander has 8+1=9. that should suffice for my needs without having to haul spare mags everywhere i go.
Click to expand...

Magazines are one of the weak points when it comes to 1911-style pistols. Even the best mags need to be checked & maintained for proper condition & function of the parts. Cleanliness of mag bodies, weakened springs, worn followers.

I remember one day when one of the special enforcement guys issued a 1911 was running some range drills, having come in off the street/on-duty. At one point his primary mag (in the gun) experienced a stoppage, causing him to clear & rip the mag from the gun, going to a spare ... which also exhibited a stoppage. He went for his 3rd spare mag, but it had already been used and was laying on the ground. End of drill (out of mags & time).

He hadn't replaced his mag springs for a while. Those guns (issued 1911's) see usage for training every month (once a month), and they tend to eat recoil & mag springs. Probably doesn't help that they use +P loads, although they've changed from +P to standard pressure for most training, due to cost and amount of the amount of the training ammo they use.

Whenever I carry one of my 1911's, I carry a spare mag as much for being able to resolve any potential mag-related stoppage as for having spare ammo. I periodically inspect my 1911's as an armorer, too, and keep them sufficiently lubricated, and with good springs, etc. The mags get carefully inspected & maintained, as well. I've gone through more mags than I can remember over the years, as once they can't be kept properly functioning with parts replacement (mag bodies get too worn), they get tossed and replaced.
 
I look at the LAPD report (and SOP9 for that matter) as more of a understanding of what ranges a gunfight can happen to ANYBODY.

True cops stick their noses in other peoples business and thus the situations can be much different that what a citizen might be in, but.... the operative word is 'might be in'.

A gunfight is a gunfight.

Even if we consider the 'average' citizen or 'average' shooting, well average means the 50 percentile.

So I look at the studies to see what ranges and numbers of shots fired do actually happen and plan accordingly. Especially in these interesting times.

Deaf
 
Average means the 50th percentile only in symmetrical distributions (a stat quibble) but the point is well taken. I have always said that you should plan for a reasonable cut in the extreme tail of the incident intensity distribution.

For example, the average gun fight is close. But there are rampages in place like where I work. Our hallway is 284 long. That's not close. It is not inconceivable if you carried, that's the shot. Recall the AF military police office who engaged a rampager at similar distance.
 
Recall the AF military police office who engaged a rampager at similar distance.
Click to expand...

I think it was about 65 yards. There was also a controversial Border Patrol shooting @ 50 yards with a head shot in El Paso a few years ago.
 
So... The take home msg is "train for the worst and hope for the best"

If it happens at 3' and i point shoot the attacker 3 times, stopping him/her then thats great

If i have to shoot someone across a parking lot who is threatening my wife... I better be capable of making those shots.

To only train for the close stuff leaves a hole in your ability to control your entire environment. Id rather over train then under!!!

The same goes for one handed shooting, malfunction clearences, reloads, flashlight usage, hostage rescue shots.... The list goes on

Statistics are fine, but a 1 in Million chance dont mean a darn thing if YOU are that ONE.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top