Crimes Stopped By Brandishing - Does Caliber Matter?

[GoodSouthernBoy]

New CWP holder, trying to make wise (and practical) choices:

"How many crimes are averted just by the victim, or a nearby CWP holder, brandishing a firearm and not shooting? Or, rephrased: In what percentage of crimes, on average, does an assailant give up or turn tail and run when confronted with a handgun?

I don't know if this can be accurately gauged, since crimes stopped by brandishing might not be accurately reported.

Main reason for asking this question: Folks on this forum, and elsewhere, tend to bash small caliber handguns for Concealed Carry (.22, .25, .32) because of their limited stopping power. My CWP instructor told the class you needed a minimum of a .38 Special or 9mm to be effective. And granted, I wouldn't want to go up against a 300 lb. drunk man charging at me with only a .32. But, I also don't plan on putting myself or my family anywhere near a place I fear that I might run up against a 300 lb. drunk man.

I also don't want to tote a .45 around with me all day long - especially in the SC heat and humidity.

My logic is: if a majority of crimes are averted by simply drawing a gun, why not opt for a smaller caliber? (Nobody I know wants to take 3 or 4 hits from any type ammo, even .22 short )

Small caliber handguns are (generally):

Less expensive to purchase.
Easier to carry and conceal
Less expensive to shoot and train with

So, why all the push to carry pocket howitzers?

Thoughts/Relevant Data?

 

[Chris_B]

...lots of assumptions. You seem to be rationalizing, and you'd like data but you're not really sure of what type of numbers of crimes are stopped by your notion of brandishing to prevent crime. Aside from the fact that brandishing itself may be a crime, I wonder how well your idea will really work

But just so I get this straight- you would like to bet that by chance, the time you need to draw a ccw to protect your life or that of a loved one, the BG will

1) see the pistol
2) rationally decide that he or she may get hurt or killed
3) and then go away

instead of

1) not knowing you drew a weapon
2) not being in a rational state of mind
3) pressing home an attack any way

"Nobody you know" doesn't matter. You probably don't hang with a bunch of crackheads. You most likely associate with rational law-abiding folks who don't commit violent crimes. Your assumptions seem rather dangerous to me. To my logic, you're just as well served by your plan as to pretend you're a kung-fu master or jedi knight, and hope that scares the BG

Carry a reliable pistol you are comfortable with and are accurate with under stress is my opinion, and I also strongly suggest getting out of the mindset of "I will carry a pistol that I may have to draw but I'll never have to fire it in self-defense because it will probably scare the BG, so I'll make small caliber my main concern instead of Self Defense being my main concern"

 

[ZeSpectre]

My logic is: if a majority of crimes are averted by simply drawing a gun, why not opt for a smaller caliber?

In my opinion the OP has a few flaws in his logic because it's based on "hearsay" not factual evidence.

1) There will never be more than anecdotal evidence for this since very few people risk the hassle of reporting a crime that doesn't happen. In other words we hear it a lot but we don't actually KNOW that this is what happens a majority of the time, or even frequently.

2) To me the firearm is about "insurance". If the sight of a firearm causes the bad-guy to abort his plans that's great and a desired outcome (nobody is injured or dies) but if it doesn't go that way you're going to need to back up your action of drawing a firearm.

3) Drunk, Drugged, Crazy, suicidal people don't care about how your firearm looks, the only thing that is going to work on them is one (or more) of the "big three". See this link for that discussion.

 

[rattletrap1970]

This is true. A BG is not going to look at the bore and weigh his chances for survival. All he's going to see is "A gun". If he decided attacking you is worth the risk, you're gonna have to put him down. Now, anyone who looks at a gun and says, "Screw it, I'm gonna do it." is probably impaired and you are going to need a gun CAPABLE of putting him down. It's not a matter of a larger caliber gun being more menacing to an attacker, it's a matter of F=MA

 

[hoytinak]

Everyone knows that if a bad guy sees a .45acp he'll stop dead in his tracks, however if he sees a puny little 9mm he'll just laugh and keep coming at you. (I carry a 9mm myself)

 

[GoodSouthernBoy]

Interesting thoughts:

You are correct in that I am being hypothetical.

I do not have the mindset that just by carrying a pistol, it's mere sight will solve every crisis situation. In fact, if I have to draw a gun on a bad guy, I'm going to shoot him. I was more looking for any concrete research on whether the mere act of drawing a gun is a significant deterrent.

I'm more interested in if the convenience (purchase price, ammo cost, ease of carry) of a smaller caliber handgun outweighs it's lack of stopping power?

 

[rattletrap1970]

I do not have the mindset that just by carrying a pistol, it's mere sight will solve every crisis situation. In fact, if I have to draw a gun on a bad guy, I'm going to shoot him. I was more looking for any concrete research on whether the mere act of drawing a gun is a significant deterrent.

I'm more interested in if the convenience (purchase price, ammo cost, ease of carry) of a smaller caliber handgun outweighs it's lack of stopping power?

There is no definitive answer. Some will run away, some will not. You carry larger typically for the ones that don't run away. You carry smaller for a variety of reasons:
1. You don't have the money for a larger gun.
2. You have to carry concealed and carrying a larger gun is too difficult.
3. You carry somewhere where it is preferred you don't, like work. And it MUST NOT be seen.
4. Ammo cost is not an issue, unless you are carrying something in an obsolete caliber, or something so large that it would require a full size handgun anyway.

Also, saying if you draw you will fire... You aren't a Gherka soldier. (ie. your knife must taste blood if you draw it) Sometimes merely drawing ends the confrontation. Say you are at an ATM and some punks close in and say, "How about taking out some money for us." Simply turning and showing a gun in your holster and replying, "I think you should run along so no one get a hole in their head." will avert actually having to fire. BUT NOT ALWAYS.
My belief is, you should carry the largest caliber that you believe you can reliably use and control (and if you must CCW, hide).

 

[pelo801]

the pistols maybe cheaper, but last time i checked 9 mm ammo was cheaper than .32 and .380. so that really just leaves you with .22 in a smaller caliber. and for me, carrying around a .22 for protection, would leave me feeling a little less than secure.

 

[old bear]

I have few hard and fast rules in my life but a BIG one is: Never point a gun at someone your are not ready to shoot, and never shoot anyone you are not ready to kill.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

My logic is: if a majority of crimes are averted by simply drawing a gun, why not opt for a smaller caliber?

Well, you could just not bother loading your gun if most crimes are going to be averted by simply drawing a gun. Think of all the weight savings.

I also don't want to tote a .45 around with me all day long - especially in the SC heat and humidity.

Okay, so convencience and comfort supercede self defense for you and your family.

(Nobody I know wants to take 3 or 4 hits from any type ammo, even .22 short )

What makes you think you are going to be able to hit anyone with 3-4 hits?

However, since you mentioned 3-4 hits, if you did have to shoot in self defense, would you rather land 4 shots of .45 on the bad guy or 4 shots of .22 short? Which do you think would be more likely to stop the bad guy?

In fact, if I have to draw a gun on a bad guy, I'm going to shoot him.

You might consider revising this line of reasoning to say that if you have to draw your gun that you are prepared to shoot the bad guy as by the time you draw, the situation may have changed.

I'm more interested in if the convenience (purchase price, ammo cost, ease of carry) of a smaller caliber handgun outweighs it's lack of stopping power?

I would be more concerned with the opposite end of the problem...if carrying a more convenient smaller caliber handgun that is more lacking in stopping power outweighs the value of my life and the lives of my loved ones.

 

[rtpzwms]

As long as we are being hypothetical, this is all about risk. Are you willing to risk the BG thats hyped up on crack and over 300 pounds and in a very crazed state? If so a 22 might be what you want. If not then its not your choice. "life is like a box of chocolate you never know what you're going to get" BG's are the same way.....

 

[SwampYankee]

you are going to need a gun CAPABLE of putting him down

Yawn. Not this again.

My brother is a cop. He's seen at least two people killed by head shots at close range with a .22. A .22 to the head is not always certain to stop an assailant, but it is a high probability. That said, if you are good and accurate with a .32 and can consistently make a head shot under pressure, you have all the caliber you need. If you can't hit the side of a barn with a .40, you are not doing yourself any favors if that is what you chose to carry.

Even a .45 is no guarantee if your assailant has lost his mind. As has been said a million times before, shot placement is critical.

 

[Jimmy10mm]

Brandishing may deter some but not others. The problem is that once you pull it if the fellow is one not easily deterred you have to worry about him taking it away from you if you are not fully committed to use it. Living in the heat of Florida I ccw a 380 some days, a 9 on others and a 40 sometimes. I always feel more comfortable with the 380 physically and more comfortable with the 40 emotionally.

 

[Magnum Wheel Man]

1st off... this is the internet, some of the advice you get is only worth what you paid for it... ( perhaps even this one )

I agree with the O.P. that ( normally ) bad guys are looking for lower risk targets... If a weapon is drawn, & the holder appears to know how to use it, they are likely to disappear & look for an easier victem but if you look like an easy source to get a gun, because you either don't look like you would use it, or don't look proficient, you are likely more at risk

Also I'm 100% sure that if you are carrying & draw a NAA mini revolver in a self defense situation, that you will need to actually fire the gun in a much higher percentage of situations than if you were holding a "44 Magnum" ( for example )...

I also feel that you are probably actually in more danger of serious injury or death carrying a gun if you couldn't kill someone quickly & without hesitation if need be, than if you were unarmed completely & complied with the bad guys demands fully...

part of the trouble with really anylizing "real" crime today, is that we can't always look at it rationally ( criminals are most often not rational ) often crimes that you may feel your life is in danger, can be committed by "kids" often even pre teens in some areas... if you can't kill a kid if you felt your life threatened, don't carry... also there are situations, where someone is just going to die... maybe the bad guy didn't wake up at noon & decide he was going to kill someone today, but maybe he had a fight with his "old lady" & ran out of drugs, & was "jonesin" & his car wouldn't start, & you just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time... no matter what, you should never assume that by displaying a weapon alone that the presence of a gun will remove the threat... even with "kids" as bad guys, so many of them are looking for something to belong to, that a gang initiation may put you in a position, that it's kill a kid or two, or they kill you...

so... how risky is your lifestyle... mine is really pretty low risk... I live in a small town in the midwest... I feel confident carrying a gun that most would scoff at, & rightfully so, if they have a riskier lifestyle than I do... but I'm also aware that by carrying more of a "mousy" gun most of the time, that I'm more likely to have to shoot it if I need to draw it, & I'm prepared to do what is needed if I feel my life is threatened... but then I also I carry a "real" gun if I'm going to the big city, & would regularly if I lived there no matter if it was hot or not..

 

[Daryl]

My logic is: if a majority of crimes are averted by simply drawing a gun, why not opt for a smaller caliber?

Because regardless of "odds", you might actually have to use that gun to save your (or your families') life.

If the person threatening you or your's has a gun (more likely than not, if you feel a need to brandish your's), you'd better be ready and willing to use your's. If you have to use your firearmi to defend your life, you're far better off with a .38 special, 9mm, or larger rather than smaller.

There's no 2nd place winner in a gun fight.

Daryl

 

[Magnum Wheel Man]

BTW... since you are new at this... you do get used to carrying ( even a full sized weapon )... & also... get a good holster... it makes all the difference in the world

BTW #2... my 1st carry gun was an Air Weight S&W J frame in 32 H&R magnum ( the 32 holds 6 instead of 5 ) I then graduated to a S&W Air Light L frame in 44 special ( 5 shot ) but I also have a CZ Compact 9mm & even a full sized Witness 10 mm in my current carry battery... as well as one of those NAA mini's

however a year or so ago, I got into old black powder era cartridge guns, & since I have a low risk lifestyle, today on my belt is an old S&W top break spur trigger single action snubbie revolver in 38 S&W... I shoot it quite a bit, & have gotten pretty proficient with it, & without the trigger gaurd, & the birds head grip, it's one of the smallest 38's around, & I reciently compared ( empty gun to empty gun ) this revolver & my buddies new Ruger LCR ( plastic ) revolver, & my lil 38 is both smaller, & lighter in weight, even though it's a steel ( er well maybe iron ) revolver...

 

[nate45]

(Nobody I know wants to take 3 or 4 hits from any type ammo, even .22 short )

I don't know anyone that wants to take three, or four hits from a BB gun. However, that fact does not make the BB gun an effective self defense weapon.

My CWP instructor told the class you needed a minimum of a .38 Special or 9mm to be effective. And granted, I wouldn't want to go up against a 300 lb. drunk man charging at me with only a .32. But, I also don't plan on putting myself or my family anywhere near a place I fear that I might run up against a 300 lb. drunk man.

No one knows what shape, or form an attack will be in. I'm certain that the vast majority of people forced to use their concealed weapon, did not plan on the confrontation.

So, why all the push to carry pocket howitzers?

Handguns by their very nature are relatively puny. So it only makes sense to carry the largest and most effective one you can.

A famous gun cliche is 'I've never met anyone who was in a gunfight, who wished they had a smaller gun'.

 

[Don P]

Quick, start collecting the worms, they're escaping.

 

[BradH]

Many years ago I was confronted at a mac machine late at night. I suddenly had two people, one on each side, crowding me from behind and getting closer as the money was about to be dispensed. This took place in a fairly isolated area at a shopping center. Propper mac machine etiquette teaches all of us to keep our distance when "standing in line" at a mac machine. No words or looks were exchanged. At the time I was carrying a full size Colt1911 series 70 45ACP. As the series 70 didn't have a firing pin safety I always carried with an empty chamber (something I do no believe in doing today). I'll only carry a gun that can safely be carried with one in the chamber. The empty slide may have actually served as a deterrent at this particular situation. Without saying anything, no threats, no eye contact, I simply grabbed my weapon and racked the slide to chamber a round. I held the weapon subly in front of me and aiming down but so it could be seen, but without actually making an "armed threat". Both of these indivuduals took off like bats out of hell. I always wondered how things would have turned out had I been carrying a pea shooter or worse yet nothing at all.
I do think the "engine" of a gun and of a car are similar in that there is "no replacement for displacement".
I also insist on being extremely proficient with any weapon I carry. I wouldn't even apply for my CCW (have over 30 years now) until I was quite accomplished with my weapons and was even competing at that point in IPSC shoots. Just my $.02 though with inflation might not be worth much!

 

[Brian Pfleuger]

I do think the "engine" of a gun and of a car are similar in that there is "no replacement for displacement".

Sure there is....

In a car engine, it's called a turbo charger.

In a gun, it's called velocity.



Virtually all unbiased sources conclude that all major calibers are essentially equally effective.

The size of your gun will not matter to whether or not a BG is scared by it. It's "getting shot" that causes fear, not "getting shot by a 9 vs a 45".