Beating around the ...Bush

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unemployment is very high here.Columbus is low,its growing.My county is high,well over 6 percent if not higher.Median wage of 16+ an hour, lol, not here.All those local places left a long time ago.I also know people with college degrees that cant find a job.There's alot of them here too.I also know people that have college degrees that are flipping burgers and making boxes for 10 hours a day on minimum wages and traveling 30 minutes to work.I know guys that are almost at retirement age that dont know whats going to happen to their retirements because the places they work are shutting down.Theres real pain in the economy here.Sheriffs' sales of homes has gone up.


"Unemployment: eliminate 7.5 million illegal workers and there would be more than enough jobs for everyone who wanted to work.

Energy independence: eliminate environmental restrictions preventing drilling for more oil in the US and development of nuclear plants (there have been improvements in reactor design, efficiency and safety in the 10 years since the most recent US nuclear plant came online).

Value of the dollar: stop out-of-control government spending and the value of the dollar will spring back"


I agree with gc70 125 percent.Why is this so hard to do?
 
I agree with him about Nuclear power.

"Nuclear power is safe and clean??? Chernobyl,and other reactors haven't proven that to me.
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What other reactors? 3 mile island, um... no one died there.
Does the coal industry have the same safty record, I don't think so.

Btw... "The Chernobyl type reactor was designed to produce weapons grade plutonium and to generate electricity at the same time."

http://www.ans.org/pi/matters/chernobyl/faq.html

This as well as "russian engineering" is what led to the disaster.

RBMK reactors were intended to produce power and also to produce plutonium for military use. This required that it be possible to remove fuel rods for reprocessing by means of a crane on top of the reactor at short intervals in order to get Pu-239 without substantial admixture of Pu-240. These facilities made the reactor too tall for a containment structure used in Western and other Soviet reactors.

The reactor had several other features which were regarded as unsafe in the Soviet Union as well as by experts from other countries. The Soviet Union never exported RBMK reactors.
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http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/chernobyl.html


I do agree that the rest is "Beaureaucratic bullcrap".
 
gc70,
Perhaps you misunderstood what they meant by that? It's a footnote explaining the difference between the 2 groups. Which was...you know...the point of posting it.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_seas.pdf#search="unemployment seasonal adjustments"

Beginning in January 2003, BLS started using the X-12-
ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average)
seasonal adjustment program to seasonally adjust national
labor force data from the Current Population Survey (CPS),
or household survey. This program replaced the X-11 ARIMA
program which had been used since January 1980.
Click to expand...

More to the point, it's a little absurd to assume that the economy will be peachy after doubled gas prices and 6 years of deficit spending.

Having said that, I recognize that there's only so much a sitting administration can and should do about the economy.
 
That's true, but it's also true that there are things that an administration most definitely should avoid doing, and one of them is deficit spending. The current administration has been running up the National Credit Card like freshman at college with daddy's plastic.

I'm starting to think that the only thing worse than a tax-and-spend Liberal is a borrow-and-spend Conservative. In the end, there's very little difference between them--one takes the money out of my pocket, the other takes it out of my toddler's future paychecks.
 
"...to process the oil, we are not allowed to drill for!"

From cnn.com today...

"Chevron says Gulf drilling a success

Well could become the nation's biggest new domestic source of oil, according to newspaper report.
September 5 2006: 9:23 AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Chevron Corp. said Tuesday it had successfully drilled for oil in the Gulf of Mexico's deep waters, and one published report suggested the breakthrough could increase U.S. oil reserves by as much as 50 percent.

The successful well, known as Jack 2, reached a record total depth of 28,175 feet, coming in 7,000 feet of water, and more than 20,000 feet under the sea floor Analysts said the find suggested the success of that drilling may mean more oil than previously believed is available under the Gulf of Mexico, a region that already provides a quarter of U.S. output."
 
previously by GoSlash27
Actually, no. the Bush administration changed the calculations so the numbers looked better.
<3 links to Bureau of Labor Statistics>
Without the "not in labor force" and "seasonal" adjustments the unemployment rate would be more like 7%.

recently GoSlash27
Perhaps you misunderstood what they meant by that? It's a footnote explaining the difference between the 2 groups. Which was...you know...the point of posting it.
Click to expand...
Actually, I do understand. You claimed the administration fudged the unemployment numbers and threw out some links to try to give your claim credibility. You were called on the inapplicability of your links and are now squirming to recover. :p

Nevertheless, I'll play along, but since my clarivoyance is running low today, why don't you just clearly and directly state the devious changes made by the administration in the X-12-ARIMA program compared to the previous X-11-ARIMA program. :)
 
You're kiddin' me, right? The answer's right in front of you in those (very applicable tyvm) links. Rather than snarking about reading comprehension vs. clairvoyance, I will spell it out for you....

The charge is that they have altered not only the process for calculating seasonal work, but the equipment with which it's calculated. This in itself is no big deal, and is admitted in the last link I gave you.
It does, however, mean that it is different from previous assessments, thus direct comparison is misleading.

What makes it 'nefarious' is that these changes continually understate the number of people in the work-force. See "inapplicable" chart #1.

Our population has increased over the last 6 years, yet the work-force is shrinking. Where are they all going? Did the aliens abduct them?
These are people whu *used* to be called "unemployed" who are now ignored.
Suppose we did call them "unemployed" (like they used to be). Where's your unemployment rate now?

There's no shame in admitting that the economy was better under Clinton. After all it was the result of all that hard work by Reagan, remember? :cool: And the current problems are all a result of Clinton's mis-management. Or did the argument suddenly change? It's so hard keeping the message straight...

And congratulations on the successful thread-jack.
 
What's always fascinated me about unemployment, professionally speaking, is how quickly most people get back to work. These numbers are from August '05 IIRC, but the newer numbers are similar.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

Total unemployed.................................. 100.0
Less than 5 weeks............................... 33.6
5 to 14 weeks................................... 33.0
15 weeks and over............................... 33.4
15 to 26 weeks................................ 14.1
27 weeks and over............................. 19.3
 
It doesnt really matter who is at fault when it boils down to the nitty gritty,We do need to find a solution instead of blaming either a democrat or republican.Fact is, everybody knows that healthcare is getting almost unaffordable and Im sure we have all heard senior citizens expressing concern about it as well.Just about everyone has seen the people,illegal or not, hanging around grocery stores or similiar places looking for work.One can go to an unemployment office and sit or a homeless shelter if one wants to see it.It might be more visable and in your face than a chart on the television with numbers and graphs.

Im glad some places are showing growth again and oil has been found but we still need to try other things to have several solutions or fall back into the same rut as before.


We are the ones that are paying for the illegal immigrant,energy,economic and security issues.We are the ones paying in taxes and higher costs.
 
We are the ones that are paying for the illegal immigrant,energy,economic and security issues.We are the ones paying in taxes and higher costs.
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Exactly, no matter your status is life we all need to understand this country is in trouble, millions of illegals, growing population of poor under educated people, over 50% of minority kids dropping out of high school, while at the same time manufacturing jobs shipped to third world countries and prices on those items going up in cost.

Greed is name of the game and no matter how educated you are or how much money you make it will impact you at some point. We need to let our elected officials know and vote them out of office at this point our options are few but they need to be sent a message.
 
You're kiddin' me, right? The answer's right in front of you in those (very applicable tyvm) links. Rather than snarking about reading comprehension vs. clairvoyance, I will spell it out for you....

Our population has increased over the last 6 years, yet the work-force is shrinking. Where are they all going? Did the aliens abduct them?
These are people whu *used* to be called "unemployed" who are now ignored.
Suppose we did call them "unemployed" (like they used to be). Where's your unemployment rate now?
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Yes, the joke's on you. They weren't abducted by aliens, but by Florida realtors. The population is getting older. They are not unemployed, they are retired.
 
That could actually be a very good point.
Have they all suddenly started retiring en masse or are you just making an assumption?
 
Have they all suddenly started retiring en masse or are you just making an assumption?
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It's based on both the increasing age of the population (census data) and an increasing trend of earlier retirements. I have hard numbers on earlier retirements somewhere at work (from retirement fund managers, who are very interested in such things), but I'm on vacation this week. Basically, the leading edge of the post-WWII baby boom started hitting 55 in 2000. Early data shows that group is retiring earlier than previous generations and the wave hasn't crested.

Just hope that we don't become like Europe and have to import workers who later become unruly.
 
gc,
That's worth reviewing, and I look forward to seeing it.
But just so I'm getting this straight, you're claiming that 5 million people have retired within the last few years (above and beyond the people entering the workforce)? Is this correct?
Because otherwise, it looks more like this:
http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/ppb/2005/ppb052.pdf#search="katherine bradbury"
Note that the 55 and older crowd are one of the few groups actually trending *upwards* as far as employment....

Somebody might interpret the data differently....something more like this:
http://www.pww.org/article/view/7640/1/284/
 
;) GS27, I think we are both probably correct, but only when both answers are taken together.

I believe the reported unemployment numbers are inherently understated due to the way they are derived. And I think Americans are getting older and getting out of the labor force at an increasing rate.

I also honestly believe that without the 7-8 million illegal immigrants in the workforce, we would have a labor shortage that would hurt the economy.
 
"I also honestly believe that without the 7-8 million illegal immigrants in the workforce, we would have a labor shortage that would hurt the economy."


Im not trying to flame you but I disagree with that assessment.They are taking good jobs too my friend,not just mowing lawns and picking apples.


You know what I saw at the food pantries and the unemployment lines?Kids and moms and dads.There were a few retirement age and older people there also.I heard their stories all afternoon.Some of them had 2 jobs at minimum wages but fell short a mere hundred dollars by the guidelines to get aid.Some had this or that income but the utilities were left unpaid because it wasnt enough.So they are given the names of people hiring and more food pantries.

Everyone wants those same jobs,illegals and citizens.
 
I also honestly believe that without the 7-8 million illegal immigrants in the workforce, we would have a labor shortage that would hurt the economy.
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I would guess the numbers are much higher over 10 million. Overall it would help the middleclass if they were removed from the work force. Two groups benefit from the illegal work force, wealthy here and in Mexico, simply it hurts the American taxpayer.
 
There are some interesting facts in George Will's column "Japan Must Choose Between Economic Models" in today's Richmond Times-Dispatch.

"Japan has fertility rate - the number of children per woman of childbearing age - of 1.32."

"The replacement rate, which keeps the population from shrinking, is 2.1."

"The U.S. fertility rate is barely at replacement level, but immigration is one reason demographer Nicholas Everstadt expects America to be the "only industrialized country to hold its share of global population in the next half century.""

Now whether this is good or bad is open to debate, but it feeds the argument that the country needs, or is going to need, more immigrants.

And about the baby boomers and the job market in general - What we see at work, vocational counseling, etc., are the older folks becoming unable to do manual laber jobs involving nail banging, ladder climbing, lifting, etc. & many of the younger folks unwilling to do them.

There was an article in the 9/5 Washington Post called "Dream On, Kid" by Elizabeth Agnvall, subtitled Reality Doesn't Meet the Ambitions Of Many Teens.

Just to pick a quote as an example of how people can get discouraged and either drop out of the market or not be prepared to compete for jobs...in this case speaking of advanced degrees...

"The percentage of high school graduates between 25 and 30 who eventually earn advanced degrees has remained fairly steady since the 1970s. But the gap between those who expected and earned such degrees nearly doubled over the years. In 1976 there was a gap of 22 percentage points between expectations and reality. By 2000 the difference was 41 percentage points."

"Grossly put, more time spent pursuing high-risk pathways in schooling and work means less time spent getting a start on other means of employment."

Just a few idle thoughts before lunch, but the employers around here are having a heck of a time finding people to do the less glamorous jobs that pay by the hour. It's no surprise that they'd hire a smiling hard working immigrant in a heartbeat.

John

edited to correct the spelling of Agnvall
 
"I also honestly believe that without the 7-8 million illegal immigrants in the workforce, we would have a labor shortage that would hurt the economy."

Im not trying to flame you but I disagree with that assessment.They are taking good jobs too my friend,not just mowing lawns and picking apples.
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I was not making any assessment about the kind or quality of jobs that illegals have; I was only commenting on numbers. If the number of illegal workers (say 6) is greater than the number of unemployed (say 4), eliminating illegal workers would result in a labor shortage (-2).
 
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