I have a feeling they'll get him on the producer negligence thing.
Legally speaking, it is the easier conviction in this case. First off, they've already convicted the armorer, who didn't point a gun at anyone, shot no one, and wasn't even on the set when the shooting happened, and ultimately, Baldwin was HER BOSS, the guy who hired her, and is therefore responsible. It will be up to the jury to decide if that responsibility meets the standard of the criminal code.
Next point, going after a conviction because of his responsibility as "Captain of the Ship" avoids, or minimizes the defense claims about him not being responsible as an actor for knowing the gun was loaded. (he is, and didn't do it) and it also defuses the defense claim that the gun was broken/defective at the time of the accident and now, thanks to the damage inflicted by FBI testing, they cannot determine that with certainty.
I'm a simple guy, and I know how Single Action revolvers and many other guns work. For me, pointing a gun at someone, and having it go off is enough evidence they are responsible for that happening.
To me, the how, and the why, while important, are not able to cancel the WHAT that actually happened.
The claim is made that as an actor Baldwin was not responsible for personally checking to see if the gun was loaded. TO ME, this is PARTLY true. He's not required to check the gun by his JOB. However, his JOB RULES require him to be there, and see the gun being loaded, and what it is loaded with.
HE DIDN"T DO THAT. Either! You don't get it both ways, you cannot claim immunity from responsibility because of your job rules when you do not follow those same job rules!
The entire issue about the gun being broken is, to me, a red herring. A possible legal, procedural matter, perhaps, that's something for the court to rule on, but the reality is, the gun was working properly when the FBI began testing and worked properly up until the point it broke, so, (again, to me) is a logical and valid assumption that the gun was working properly before the FBI testing, and there is a clear chain of custody on the gun from the time the Sherrif's deputies took possession of it on the movie set after the shooting.
As far as the movie "bombing" at the box office (if it ever gets that far) I would expect nothing less. I see any attempt to market the movie as a "tribute" and to raise money for the victim's family is a cynical ploy to appeal to our sympathy. Any money raised will be used to pay the legal bills (current and looming), and do remember that money owed the family as a result of the accident IS one of the legal bills that Baldwin (and his company) are responsible for paying, whether he is convicted, or not.