agtman,
Would this then be an accurate summary of why the FBI turned to the 10 Auto in the late '80s (in declining order of importance)?:
Better penetration than 9 Luger and .45 Auto, and
Slightly greater capacity than .45 Auto (a distant second).
From their testing of the 9mm, 10mm and .45acp (pursuant to their ballistics protocols - the most important of which was "penetration first, everything else second"), the FBI FTU concluded:
1) the 10mm was the superior penetrator;
2) the 10mm was the most accurate of the 3 cartridges;
3) only the 10mm offered an energy curve large enough to permit use of its lower end in the 1076 pistols and a higher/hotter end in tactical sub-guns or in custom 1911s used as entry pistols by their HRT teams. If you recall, HK made 10mm MP5s for the Bureau. The 10mm MP5s used double-stack mags, and back in the '90s I got to see and handle several of these weapons. Typically, they were carried and stored behind the back seat of Bureau SUVs.
4) the 9mm and .45 were tapped-out on bullet-designs, i.e., styles and especially
weight, whereas the 10mm's potential for using various projectiles was just being tapped. In that era, exiting bullet-weights were 170gns, 180gns, 190gns & 200gns (again, circa 1989-1990).
5) depending on pistol and magazine design (i.e., double-stack v. single-stack), the 10mm would give you 1 or 2 more rounds over the .45, but less than the 9mm. The FTU heads preferred a single stack design, and while they liked the S&W 645 (the 45XX-series models weren't built yet), they also liked Sig-style ergonomics (e.g., the 220)
Then, is it fair to say these are the reasons the 10 Auto failed?:
Too much recoil,
Grip too long,
Gun too bulky, or
Capacity inadequate.
I wouldn't accept the premised that the 10mm "failed"; the Bureau simply concluded that training issues and weapon-size made the .40 a better choice for *most* of its non-shooter agents, as I mentioned in a post above. Many state & local agencies that had adopted the 10mm, like the Kentucky State Police, continued with it for many years after the FBI moved to the .40. Indeed, even after the FBI "officially" adopted to the .40, a huge number of senior agents, albeit dwindling as time passed with retirements, still carried the 1076 thru the '90s and into the early 2000s. I talked to a number of these guys over the years. Overwhelmingly, they accepted the opportunity to keep their 1076s upon retirement.
As far as the four reasons listed above:
1) "Recoil" had been addressed by the FTU's specifications for the so-called 10mm-Lite load (180gn @ 990fps). The shooters at the FTU liked and had shot some of the hotter 10mm ammunition that was available back then - not just Norma's loads; Hornady, Remington & Winchester were also marketing a hot 10mm load or two. But as practical firearms-trainers, they also knew that felt-recoil would affect the successful qualification of non-shooter agents, which back then included more & more women being hired by the Bureau as a consequence of court orders and settled discrimination lawsuits.
But there was a second 10mm load that Federal made for the Bureau, a
190gn bonded JHP @ 1050fps (actually, the first bonded slug designed for LE use), which most SAs who I knew back then actually loaded in their 1076s. This was the so-called '
X' load (XM1003A) and it had nothing to do with the X-Files or Agent Mulder.
FYI, a friend (who had a 5" 1026) and I chrono-ed this load back about 1998-99, and it was doing just a tad under 1050fps from my 1076, and about 1090fps-1100fps from his 5" Smith. Very accurate too.
2) & 3) Grip too long/gun too bulky. As you know, the 45acp and 10mm share almost the same COAL (and if you've read Ron Carrillo's Bren Ten/10mm book, you know that's no coincidence). These cartridges simply necessitate a large-frame platform.
The COALs of the .40 & 9mm are close as well, and it's also no coincidence that the .40S&W's COAL is within a hair of the old 1970's .40G&A, the first experiential "10mm/.40" cartridge. In fact, the gun first used to test the .40G&A was a converted Browning 9mm HP, so the designers of the .40S&W already had a road map of sorts.
As noted earlier, the .40 cartridge allows one to take low-end 10mm "stopping power" and put it into a
9mm-size semiauto. So, yes, for "regular" field agents and other L.E. types who carry their sidearms
way more than they ever shoot them (qual-time being the exception), it was a no-brainer that a 9mm-size auto would yield benefits in terms of handling and portability.
4) And while the "adequacy" of capacity was never an issue per se with the 10mm (notwithstanding the Miami '85 debacle, one FBI study put the *average* shots fired in agent-involved shootings at like 5-rds or less), it goes without saying that a double-stack design (e.g., S&W 4006s, G22s, G23s) gives you more bullets in the mag, which in a gunfight means having to reload less often.
Hope this helps ...