Will ammo prices EVER go down again??

[Rangefinder]

People will realize that 20K rounds is enough... for this weekend.

LMAO... Good one Mike.

Personally, I'm not stock-piling much ammo at this point. Rather than spend a fortune on loaded ammo, I'm diverting that cash to the longer-running raw components Why spend money on 20K of loaded ammo when the same cash will get me 60K worth of reloads for the same amount! That keeps me held over for almost a month on Mike's figures! It's all in how you weigh it I suppose...

 

[oneounceload]

5.56 ammo and 9mm is a hell of a lot harder to find since the war(s) started..

Never once saw a shortage of those two calibers - in fact, they were the ones that were in ample supply everywhere (pricing might have been ugly, but supply was there). Ask the folks about 380 - That was scarce.

Right now, EVERY store in my area has full shelves as their backorders are coming in. I hope the hoarders who helper drive this frenzy get stuck with very high-priced ammo as prices are starting to settle down. There are a few folks here who have been buying everything at walmart and then trying to double and triple their money on the net and at gun shows......they might be hurting

With the election, a rash of new popular little guns that didn't have enough supply made up, and now all those folks getting into reloading, certain supplies will dry up a little and then get filled and settled down.

I know of one individual who has almost 100 years worth of ammo and supplies (based on the amount he shoots) who got caught up in the frenzy and fear. Now he thinks he might have to sell some of it (at a loss) to pay some bills.......oh well.........

 

[rickyjames]

has anyone done any research or tracked the stock or profits of ammunition companies?
it might be interesting to see company profits and stock prices and graph them along with ammunition prices and availability during this price rise timeline.
i'm not saying there is any price gouging because i don't know but if there were spikes it would be an indication.

 

[oneounceload]

i'm not saying there is any price gouging because i don't know but if there were spikes it would be an indication.

And you are right, there isn't any price gouging going on - there are too many competing companies trying to fill an extreme upsurge in demand. There cannot be gouging in that scenario.

 

[Hedge313]

Uh......NO

What we have is the new standard. I expect the prices to continue moving upward. There will always be conflicts, wars, etc. because they are neccessary to perpetuate our economy. Face it, we have become a war nation. (not a bad thing, just the way it is). I still believe we are the good guys, just a lot of bad guys out there. Our manaufacturing base, with the exception of defense contractors has moved offshore.

That being said, ammunition manufacturers see that there are a lot of "preppers" out there. Many are stockpiling caches for SHTF. Others are getting their family members involved and practice takes rounds. I think those that shot very little are now shooting more often, burning up some of the supply.

I can remember when my father and I would go several months between gun range sessions. That is never the case now. Ranges are overflowing, and conservative americans are practicing their 2nd amendment rights. Ranges are full, business is brisk. More people are arming themselves. People are telling family members to stock up, and many are heading the message. Quite frankly, I am surprised ammo prices are as low as they are now. By the way, handgun ammo is very hard to find in my part of the country. People are buying, regardless of price.

If you could get a higher price on a product you make, wouldn't you?

 

[BigJimP]

Its just simple supply and demand / and no, I don't think prices are really going to come down very much, if at all.

The hoarding is out of control / guys buying at Wal-Mart and then re-selling for a profit .. all part of the problem.

I reload / but the cost of bullets, primers and powder are all way up too.

I've see the cost of 124gr 9mm bullets go from $ 45/1,000 to $ 80/1,000 just in the last 2 years.

Its kind of sad - but the shooting sports are pricing themselves out of the middle class as an entertainment option. Some of us older guys are still hanging in there / especially since we reload ....but not guys raising families... where a range trip is expensive at $ 20 for a lane / and a box of 50 rds in .45 acp is $28/even 9mm is $ 15 a box. Taking a couple of kids to the range, even with 4 boxes of 9mm each which isn't a lot ( for 2 kids and 1 adult ) = $ 60 for range fees / $ 180 for ammo = $ 240 for 3 - 4 hours of entertainment.

The ammo companies / gun companies don't owe us anything ...but it is sad that its getting so expensive. There is a lot of guys shooting more .22 these days ......but I'm still holding out / shooting a lot of 9mm for practice instead of .45 acp .

 

[svaz]

....but not guys raising families...

No doubt. I wasn't a little surprised that foghorn bought two cases @ $13/20; I would have to think darn hard about buying two boxes at that price. When a caliber goes north of $0.50/rnd it starts getting too rich for my blood.

 

[Mike Irwin]

Every local source I used to get my 9mm from was pretty much out for nearly 10 months last year.

.223 didn't seem to go scarce (newly manufactured disappeared from the shelves for some time as Winchester and Remington converted lines to fulfill military contracts) but surplus was available.

But holy hell the price sure did go up.

 

[Mike Irwin]

"What we have is the new standard. I expect the prices to continue moving upward."

We've discussed this multiple times.

Recent history shows us that the claims of "We've set a new standard" and "Manufacturers now know we'll buy at any price!" simply has no bearing in reality.

The primer shortage of the 1990s is ample proof that as supply levels begin to return to normal and people return to pre screaming panic purchasing patterns that prices WILL fall.

The highest I saw primers selling for in the 1990s was just over $30 per K.

By 2004 I felt myself to be SORELY abused if I had to pay more than $12 per thousand for primers.

Had that $30 per K price REALLY been the "new standard," this time around primer prices would have easily topped $100 per thousand on average.

They didn't, and primer prices are already falling.

Ammunition prices will start coming down soon.

"There will always be conflicts, wars, etc."

Yes, this is true. But in order for your assumption to be true, ALL military ammunition would have to come from civilian manufacturers.

It doesn't.

In any given year, civilian manufacturers provide very little ammo to the Gov't, and I believe that most of that is handgun ammo. Lake City ammunition plant provides more than enough .223 ammunition to the military to sustain normal training and operational tempos in any given year.

Remington and Winchester were called on to make ammo for the government recently because Lake City's capacity was stripped by ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq and regular training and replacement cycles.

It would appear that Winchester and Remington are already returning to civilian production, having fulfilled most, if not all, of their government contracts for this period.

 

[Buzzcook]

At some point the hoarders will start dieing off. When that happens will there be a glut on the market?
If so, some young folks have something to look forward to.

 

[stantonizm]

I went to Wal Mart today and they had 50 round boxes of Federal .45 acp for 15.95. I haven't seen .45 that cheap for a long time.

 

[GreySmoke]

Havent seen .45acp at the WW's in forever. They have .40S&W FMJ Federal @ $13.47 coming out the WAZOOOOO.

 

[allenomics]

Prices should go down if demand becomes less. Not too likely in the near term.

 

[HiBC]

Suppose I had a gunshop.

Suppose I had a normal,small gunshop inventory of primers,Lets guess

20,000 of each size.Now,back in the low price days when folks mostly reloaded for sporting purposes,they often bought primers by the hundred,or really stocked up with a brick of 1000.

Suppose I had primers for $3 a hundred or $25 a brick.

Powder for $15 a pound .Your $20 box of 50 .44 Mags.

Suppose I really tried to treat my customers right,make a fair profit,and get by.

In ONE DAY,someone would call someone on the phone,my entire inventory would be gobbled up,and some clown at a gunshow would be selling my primers for $50 a brick,thinking he is a genius and I'm a moron.

That is part of the ammo price situation.We are our own worst enemy.

 

[Diamond LawDawg]

Reload 45lc

All set up reloading 45lc..have been past several years Cowboy shooting in SASSand practicing w/6Colt SAA 45's 4 3/4" and lever action Marlin's chambered for 45lc..but for my Glock 30 and Ed Brown Special Forces 4.25" Commander they get new Winchester or Federal..230gr FMJ. just ordered 1500 rds avg cost delivered at 23 buck a box. I can live with that...just a few less beers at the watering hole...

 

[1-UP]

I think folks investing/hoarding ammo now have missed the curve. The brutal thing about bubbles is that they seem to make sense at the time. I think this year will show stead/slightly declining prices. I don't think prices will PLUMMET, but I think they'll keep coming down until we're paying under $10 a box of 50 9mm and bulk .22 is somewhere around $12 a box.

 

[JohnKSa]

...I think they'll keep coming down until we're paying under $10 a box of 50 9mm...

The local Wal-Mart has the 100 count WWB 9mm for just under $20 a box. Availability is still a bit spotty but improving.

 

[XD Gunner]

Heck if I shoot more than a brick of "cheap" 22 ammo in a day, I think about it.

Your kidding right? A year or so ago, two friends and myself went through about 9,000 .22LR rounds in one day. I routinely go through 500+ when I take my rimfires to the range.

Today I went through 80-9mm, 50-357 Magnum, 50-38 Special, 100-22LR, and 150-45ACP.

 

[Fishslayer]

I guess I'm kinda lucky. I bought my first gun a little over a month ago. So these prices are all I know.

Yup. Bought my first centerfire handgun last November (thank that salesman of the year guy from Kenya) and already have my loading bench in the garage.

FWIW the supply has seemed a bit better lately. Even saw .45 ACP "on sale" a couple months ago. Don't know if the prices will go down much, but at least we'll be able to get it.

 

[WVfishguy]

When I lived in a tiny garage apartment, I reloaded on a cheap Lee press.

Now I live in a small house, I reload on another, slightly less cheap, Lee press. My entire reloading operation takes 1/4 of my tiny home office, and I load thousands of rounds.

I have NO sympathy for anyone who says they can't reload. If you are physically able, there's no excuse for not reloading.