When is the firearms industry supposed to get back to normal again?

A

AlongCameJones

Moderator
It seems as COVID has screwed everything up.

There are two new guns I've been hunting for since late last summer. OUT OF STOCK and NOT AVAILABLE is pretty common to read at online gun vendor sites. Ammo is also high priced an rare still too.

1. Mossberg 500, 12 ga., security/field combo (no, I don't want an inferior Mexico-made Maverick 88!) Just about every new Mossberg 500 12 ga. model is out of stock.


2. Smith & Wesson Model 686 PLUS, .357, 3" barrel only. yes, there are some long barrel (4" plus) ones available but too long to fit in my fanny pack.


Are a lot of popular gun models out of production? Is your LGS good about getting the new gun model you want on special order?
 
It's a combination of factors, and all of the factors have far more to do with the consumer than the industry.

As such, it's difficult to predict the return to normal.
 
I've emailed one of my LGS to ask him about special ordering either the Smith or the Mossberg or both for me. I don't know about Mossberg, but he is a factory-authorized Smith dealer.
 
You might have luck finding a Mossberg via gunbroker.com. I’ve wanted a Mossberg 590A1 for awhile but haven’t seen them anywhere except gunbroker at high prices.

As for S&W, you might have better luck with them than Mossberg. When I ordered my M&P 2.0 last summer from my LGS it took 3 months to get. But, they were readily available via gunbroker.
 
I don't like to buy guns online anyway. I want to touch the gun in my hands before putting any money down. I'm in no hurry to get my sought guns anyway.
 
While you may "Buy" a gun online, you take delivery in person from an FFL dealer. This is your "hands on" opportunity, to handle, and inspect the weapon before accepting delivery.

If its not as advertised, SEND IT BACK! If you don't take the time to physically handle and examine the gun, making sure all parts are there, all the accessories you paid for, are there and the gun passes a basic function check, they its nobody's fault but yours if something isn't right and you accept it anyway.

And, your dealer should stand behind you on this. If they don't, its time to find a different dealer!
 
JohnKSa said:
It's a combination of factors, and all of the factors have far more to do with the consumer than the industry.

As such, it's difficult to predict the return to normal.
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Unless there's some shadowy billionaire who is spending all his money on guns and ammo and primers to keep it away from the market, yes, it's all consumer driven, maybe with a little impact from a brand like Remington having been out of production most of last year.

The industry is currently running at max output and that is not enough to meet demand. Normally when this happens it signals a long term trend and industry expands by adding more machines, building more facilities to meet that demand, but the shooting industry has seen these spikes in demand in the past and they've been burned before investing a lot of money into increasing production only for that demand to disappear once the "right President" is in office.

With Jimmy Carter finally getting that elusive 2nd term and fuel shortages having returned, everything going up in price, all these hack attacks, civil unrest, etc. the industry and everyone else is projecting that the anti-gun party is losing the mid terms in 2022. Once that's done the panic will be over.
 
I got a reply from the man at my LGS. He tells me he can't get the guns I want from his distributors. His distributors are out of stock. I then sent him another message asking him if I can keep checking back month after month.

Do gun shops mind if customers keep checking back on things periodically? His shop is full of guns but not a single one that interests me. I'm patient and realize I will have to wait and do legwork to find what i really fancy.
 
Change is always the norm ???

It seems as COVID has screwed everything up.
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Kind of depends on your point of reference. What normal yesterday is not current and change is the norm. We naturally do not care for change but always seem to adapt rather well. Say good-by to the past and embrace the new. ... :D

I smile when I shoot my $5.00 brick of 22LR....... :)

Be Safe !!!
 
I'm glad a cheap brick of .22LR makes some people happy.

There was another gun shop 30 miles away from me that never bothered to answer the emails I sent them twice inquiring about products. This shop is listed by both Mossberg and Smith & Wesson at their respective corporate sites.

Do you avoid gun dealers who are email shy? I like to email them so they are not bothered by telephone calls while they are dealing with customers in the shop.

I'm under the impression most gun shops just want to sell whatever is on their shelves at the time. Even during his time, my local gun shop is always full of guns. The trick is, do they have the gun YOU want at a price you agree with?
 
It will never go back to normal. It is going to get worse in the next few months.

That does not mean availability, but certainly price and selection will not come back.
 
At GunBroker.com I see this listed there for several dealerships listing NEW guns:

Inspection/ Return Policy
AS IS - No refund or exchange

I saw a new Mossberg 500 Field/Security combo listed there by one such dealership and another similar gun without the security barrel. I also saw a couple of sellers there listing the Smith revolver I've been hunting for.

Some sellers have as Inspection/ Return Policy
AS IS - No refund or exchanges while others are unspecified for return policy.

What I did was asked the sellers by email if I'm guaranteed to not be out my money should I find the gun in unsatisfactory condition at my local FFL for transfer. If they state they refuse to take the gun back or give me my money back under those conditions, then no buy by me. If they don't even reply, then still no buy by me. I would not be happy with a certain chunk of change of mine sunk into a new scratched firearm.

Online buying has this disadvantage of not being able to inspect (merchandise in hands with magnifier under eye) before putting money down as well as often getting hit with shipping fees and local FFL transfer fees on top of the selling price. GunBroker and/or their sellers also smacks buyers in the teeth with a 3% credit card fee.

If I buy a new camera at amazon.com and it's damaged, I can return it and get all my money back and not eat the return shipping too. Firearms dealers aren't known for liberal return policies.

Of course I would pay by VISA credit card too. One can make a dispute with one's credit card issuer if the merchant is behaving in an unscrupulous manner as in receipt of damaged merchandise by the customer that the seller won't make good on. Credit cards give you some protection against unscrupulous merchants. Bankamericard has charged back a number of bad sellers on my behalf in the past.

I'm particularly gunshy (no pun intended) about buying firearms online. Firearms consumers seem to have very limited protections. I might chance buying a new gun online if the seller will back it against damage upon my inspection.
 
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I have an email dialogue between me and an online dealer at Gunbroker.

ME: RE: Seller Return Policy Inquiry

Hello:

I'm interested in purchasing this new Smith & Wesson Model 686 PLUS revolver online and to receive it at my hometown FFL dealership for transfer to me. If for some unlikely reason I find this gun damaged upon my inspection at the FFL, am I welcome to reject it for a full refund? Am I guaranteed to not be out any of my money should I find the firearm in unsatisfactory condition provided the FLL has not yet transferred the gun to me? I reside in SW Oklahoma. I expect any NEW boxed merchandise to be received in perfect condition without scratches. Thank you.


HIM:

Hello,

I examined 27 Factory Brand New Smith and Wesson Revolvers in my inventory and I did not find single one that was "perfect" in my opinion. Every single one had polishing, machining swirl marks, blued triggers ( different color than gun ). I also examined 9 high end Kimber revolvers and found same things on them. If anyone tells you they have cosmetically perfect SW, they are lying to you. Smith and Wesson ships revolvers in Blue Plastic cases. Gun is literally covered in greasy/oily Butchers Paper, nothing else.

I am sorry we cannot do business.

Thank you
Livid Horse Armory.

ME AGAIN:

Maybe no business between us, then. Normally when one buys a gun in a brick-and-mortar store, he can examine it with a flashlight and magnifier and then decide whether to buy it at that point. It might have swirl marks but still be acceptable to the buyer. The prospective buyer may use the marks as a bargaining chip too. The big problem with traditional brick-and-mortar stores these days is limited selection. My own hometown dealer can't even special order me what I want because his distributors are supposedly out of stock.

I know if I order a new camera or TV set online from amazon or Walmart, I can easily return it if its broken upon inspection at receipt of shipment. I understand buyers who buy guns online entail certain economic risks. I understand firearms dealers often don't have liberal return polices and consumers may get screwed. Thanks for your reply. You, and perhaps many other dealers online, are too scared to back up the customer satisfaction of your merchandise shipped to FLLs of customers.
 
Define "normal". for now, this is normal. normal will change again. the only question is, how long and will it be a better or worse normal.
 
NORMAL means you go on line and Google "new Mossberg 500 for sale" and get a front page full of gun dealers. In that case, NORMAL means "out of stock" is the exception and not the rule for America's number one shotgun.

Anyway, I just ordered my new Mossberg 500 12 ga. field/security combo and my new Smith 686 Plus 3" barrel both at Gunbroker.com to be FFL-transfered at my local gun shop over the next week or so.

The new Mossy two-barrel combo I paid $91 over manufacturer list price. The new Smith 686 PLUS 3" I actually paid $50 under mfr. list.

I have an older Remington 870 police pump and it sucks. It's a pain to load and unload due to the carrier that gets in the way. I just got rid of a Benelli Super Nova last year for the same reason. I had a new Mossy 500 police pump I bought back in the '90's that sadly got stolen. I love their ease of stuffing shells into the tube and they don't seem to kick as much as my 870. The Maverick 88 is cheaper and made in Mexico. I hear quality is not the same as the American-made 500/590 series. It's also easy to pry unfired shells out of the tube with a Mossy without firing or cycling the action. The shell carrier stays up in a Mossy, out of the way of the generous wide loading port. I will get rid of that 870 when I get my Mossy.

Both of these gun models have been largely out of stock since last summer even at Gunbroker.com. If one of these guns was listed on rare occasions, it would be priced a couple hundred dollars higher than gun maker retail list price. There are quite a number of those listed in stock again at Gunbroker. Either gun factories are in full production again or gun sales are starting to slow down.

The COVID spell seems like that it's on its way to lifting. Walmarts in my area are now designated mask-free again for shoppers. Some people still wear them but not all. I only put my mask over my face when I'm close to people in the store. I keep it handy around my neck. Some places like hospitals and clinics still require masks.
 
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Shadow9mm said:
Define "normal". for now, this is normal. normal will change again. the only question is, how long and will it be a better or worse normal.
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I can't help but agree. If we were to use mean or average as the definition of normal, then seeing ammo at 60 cents a round now vs 20 to 30 cents when it's what so many are calling "normal" and $1 a round at the high, then yes, we're in the average and this is the normal.

Those who can't afford to or won't pay to shoot ammo that costs 50 cents a round would be smart to buy double what they normally do during "normal" times when it's half that price.

An alternative option is to shoot half as much now than what you normally do. It all averages out.
 
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