What the heck is up with steel and China?

Reagan's policies towards the Soviet Union were essentially economic warfare. Perhaps the Chinese are following his example.

How so? Reagan got the USSR to collapse by getting them to keep up with us on defense spending, currently we spend are globally #1 in military spending and spend more than #s 2-6 combined.
 
Really, as China modernizes its military, I see Siberia as more of a target than the United States.
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Any analysis of the Chinese is going to very far amiss if you don't take their amazing national ego into account. I have found the depths of it mind-boggling. They have their panties SERIOULY in a bunch about not being one of the world's superpowers, and they will not be satisfied until they have defeated us militarily.

Yes, they want Siberia - they have long memories and their territorial appetite makes Hitler's Leibensraum look pale by comparison.

But everyone knows we beat the Russians. Everyone who was paying attention during Gulf I knows we stomped Russian military equipment into a mudhole. Without breaking a sweat. The Russians even got run out of Afghanistan!

WE are the people the Chinese need to beat to assuage their egos. Everyone else will have to wait their turn.

Well, except maybe Taiwan.
 
For China to tango with us would be suicidal for them. Not only can we mop the floor with them militarily but they would also be destroying their most profitable business relationship. Without that nice stream of cash coming in they're going to have a hard time funding a military.

Look for ethnic Chinese to populate the resource rich Siberia and to demand territory from an increasing weak and dying Russia.
 
Lak: I guess I misinterpreted what you were saying. As I pointed out in my first post, our system allows other countries to buy into our monetary system, with inevitable and obvious consequences.
The fact that we went to the Bank of Japan to ask them to be kind in their treatment of T-bills told this to anybody who was unaware.

Quartus: China may have hugely inflated egos. But I don't think they will go to war without the resources. Also, they know that a head on military confrontation is not the only way to win the game. This is not cold war Soviets you are dealing with.
You've been to the special economic zones, I'm sure. Some would be amused by the crudities of those new to capitolism, fumbling around with new rules. Some would laugh at their lack of (buisness) social graces. I saw a bunch of hungry sharks. Mix that with the international buisness savvy of Hong Kong (many multi-millionairs on the ground) and twenty years experience and military war will be irrelevant. Plenty in HK want to see a strong China, just one not under current management.
Iraq did not necessarily show the inferiority of military equiptment. That was not the SOTA and certainly not properly supported. In addition, training was very much lacking, as was morale and loyalty. I believe, even in a high-tech battlefield, that people win wars.
China is also more insulted with Russia somehow being included into the G7 (now 8) before China was. You cannot argue that Russian buisness is less corrupt, and their economy is certainly weaker. China will stagger when all those bad loans default, but I don't foresee stagnation to the extent of Russia.
Finally, every country has a large ego. The United States has one of the most inflated egos around. Our saving grace seems to be that, in the end, we as a country want to do right. To be fair, every country who was the strongest at the time had an over-inflated ego.

glock glockler: Exactly. Chinese have been moving to outlying areas of the former Soviet Union. Some areas are more dependant economically on the chinese than on Russia. A strong Chinese military will be able to back up claims of the chinese in Siberia for a seperate state. The state will then become a protectorate, then absorbed.
 
[Glock Glockler]"For China to tango with us would be suicidal for them. Not only can we mop the floor with them militarily but they would also be destroying their most profitable business relationship. Without that nice stream of cash coming in they're going to have a hard time funding a military.

Look for ethnic Chinese to populate the resource rich Siberia and to demand territory from an increasing weak and dying Russia."

....... This is to grossly underestimate China as a military power and threat. Firstly, they have the sort of manpower that would make the problems we are having in Iraq non-existant.

To get an idea of China's potential as a military force just look at North Korea. North Korea has an enormous corps of special forces alone. Their whole young male culture has a sort of militant mindset instilled from an early age. They have a good-size standing army with a military manpower ("fit for service" ages 15 to 49) of over 3.5 million. Multiply this many times over and you have China. China's "fit for service" level is well over 200 million, and their potential is significantly more than this.

Much emphasis is placed on our "technology", air force and navy. While very impressive, to a substantial degree these are over-rated as factors in showdown with a nation like China. The only way we could ever hope to take on China would be a nuclear exchange.

As far as "cash" goes to fund their military (or anything else), if China and a few other countries dump their dollars for euros it'll be we who are suddenly out of funds. It is amazing how so many people are still under the illusion that somehow the United States is "essential" to the economic survival of the rest of the world. Think again.

BTW: Russia isn't dying by a long shot.
 
Finally, every country has a large ego. The United States has one of the most inflated egos around.
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No, sir. Not even CLOSE! Yes, every country has an ego, and often without any rational justification. France comes to mind. :D

But China is different. I guess it's not something that can be understood unless you've seen it up close. It permeates everything, like a strange odor, and it's NOT just the Communist elite - it's every peasant in the field, every college kid in the city. They have a curious love of everything American, coupled with an intense desire to show us that they are better.

Have you ever smelled the fruit, durian? Strange stuff. It's almost like an addiction to people who like it, yet it's banned from most public places, like trains, buses, hotels, etc. For weeks after getting there (the first time) I wondered about the strange odor that soaked into just about EVERYTHING. There was filth aplenty to account for bad odors, but still, there was something else... Something.... unpleasant... Not like rotting garbage, but... unpleasant...

I finally found out it was durian. A strange, sickly sweet, cloying odor that is impossible to describe, but unmistakable once known.

The Chinese ego is like that. Someone said that taking us on would be suicide. I think it was you that said they won't wreck their economic base. Wrong. They are PLANNING to do just that. They WILL do things that we consider irrational. They MUST! Their ego demands it.

They are also patient. That's something else we don't understand.* They will wait 20 years, playing to their strengths and our weaknesses, and biding their time. They'll work their plan while short-sighted America stumbles from one crisis to another, and never putting 2 and 2 together.

They'll use their economy as a weapon when the time is right.

They'll win if we don't get our heads out of the sand.


Look, you can consult all the military experts, all the economic experts, even all the China experts in the world. You can cite statistics and trends and numbers ad nauseum. And all of that is important and relevant.

But if you don't understand the emotional drivers in history - in world events, you will never know what's going on, particularly with China. We Americans are not completely logical in our dealings, but I think we are probably the most logical people on the planet. But that can be a weakness, if we expect everyone else to act the same way, to follow the same logic.

They don't.





*I don't mean that we don't understand that the Chinese are patient. I mean we have no idea what patience is. Americans simply don't know what it is. Therefore, they don't factor it in to their understanding of the world. That's a fatal mistake. One of the wisest things my father ever taught me was this: Don't judge other people by yourself. Just because YOU wouldn't do something, doesn't mean someone else won't.
 
How so? Reagan got the USSR to collapse by getting them to keep up with us on defense spending, currently we spend are globally #1 in military spending and spend more than #s 2-6 combined.
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Note bold text above...

As far as "cash" goes to fund their military (or anything else), if China and a few other countries dump their dollars for euros it'll be we who are suddenly out of funds. It is amazing how so many people are still under the illusion that somehow the United States is "essential" to the economic survival of the rest of the world. Think again.
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Ditto.
 
Waitone makes a valid point. The Chinese economy is based on debt/lending. In many ways, it's like a very large and sophisticated Ponzi scheme at this point. As long as foreign currency flows in, they stay afloat. The inflow stops and the ride is OVER...very quickly and with disasterous results. Some of the major lending practices now have good money chasing bad loans, propping-up an Alice In Wonderland economy -- As long as the Queen keeps the tea flowing, the Cheshire keeps grinning, the Hatter keeps his cool, and Queenie doesn't start shouting, "Off with her head!" :cool:
 
Quartus;
Most people in the United States seem to think that the only people that can be racist are those of the Caucasian extraction. The concept that other cultures can be just as zenophobic as any KKK type just goes past them.

Those of the Middle Kingdom have always looked down on the rest of us as barbarians. Heck, they even consider the Nipponese to be johnny-come-lately's to the concept of being civilized.

The hope is that when things break, as they will, that there are enough independent Warlords? to tie the Chinese up in internal struggles before they can reach out much past their own borders.

Where will it all end? Nobody knows!
 
Very true, Stranger. They do include all of the Orientals as being at least cousins, but we non-Orientals are way below pond scum. I got to see a great (?) Korean war movie on one of my trips. Uh, the North Koreans were the GOOD guys. Courageous freedom fighters bravely struggling against the imperialist warmongers! :D Cool footage of some F-86s in action, though.

Getting shot down!

:eek:

But it's as nationalistic as racist.

I wish I could do a better job of communicating the depth and strength of it - it is THE factor that is essential in understanding the issue.
 
Keep going Quartus. I'm fascinated.

I'm kinda shocked about the rusting building and crane part. Seems like these people would strive to be the model of efficiency, especially considering the magnificence of the Dam project. Of course, I understand the corrupt part. Happens here all the time. We probably learned it from them.

However, comma, we need to make sure our industries have raw materials before China or anybody else. Eh??? This country of ours seems to care less for itself than the rest of the world. In fact, jobs come to mind too. Seems like more and more companies seek Chi-com, Indian, prison labor. WTF???

All great posts, and trust me I'm not against world economic health, but don't we need to make damned sure our own people are covered first??

Our priorities are screwed up. The United States should control the concrete and steel. :)

If I were ever to get the chance to work for an American company over in Chi-com country, I'd jump on it in a heartbeat. Fascinating world.
 
Quartus, I was indeed not the one who said that China will not wreck their economy to win a war.
I was the one who said that they will consolidate their strengths (in a more wordy way) and plan in the long term. Even said that the rest of the world need to look out in 20 years.
They will secure resources and allies first.
They will make sure they are strong.
They will undermine our political and buisness relations. A few presidents that are bad at diplomacy will help them immeasurably in this.
If they see it to their advantage, they would undermine and split the EU and cherry pick the strongest as allies.

Ever read some of the begining comics of Cerebus. Similar economic situation, every country owes another country. One country tries to collect and Boom!, it all falls apart.

As for everybody buying the Euro though, I don't think we need to worry. America waited until it was clearly the worlds strongest economy to help others. If our economy tanked to a huge degree, others would worry about all those missles and warheads. We are also as hateful and irrational as other people, since we are people.

As for others doing things we consider irrational, that depends entirely on goals and perspective. Of course we would see China going to war with us irrational. At present, we are the world's strongest economy and military. We see changing the world order as being irrational for that reason. Not others have the goal of keeping us at the top.

We managed to subagate all the indian tribes and claim the warm part of the continent (well, most of it) in part because of the irrational belief that we were destined to - the Monroe doctrine. I can't really complain, since I live pretty comfortably because of it. Others hold such loft ideas too.

As for the movies, remember this: China (to a larger degree), Viet Nam, and Korea (North) would be our allies if we hadn't tried to force governments on those people. They would never have turned to communism (except China) were it not for the resources that the Soviets gave.
China wanted to ally with the US after WWII, but we backed our corrupt choise, Chang Kai Shek. Without the cold war and with more direct trade, communism would have gone away. Why? Because in the end, people always want stuff. Simple as that, stuff. Our entire marketing is built on that.
Viet Nam fought to get rid of the French before and after WWII, regardless of other political connections. Unfortunately the French were our allies, so we wouldn't support the democratic parties, thereby tacitly approving of colonialism. Because of that, only the "Communists" had resources, allowing them to get rid of their rivals. Had we encouraged the French to withdraw and given some aid to the democratic parties, we could have avoided a bloody war.
 
Let me add that then, as it always has been in history, the war the soldiers fought was not the same as the one that politicians have sent them to fight. The motives of both are different and noble causes are a convenient marketing tool for callous politicians.
 
Something else to remember when considering China's domestic economy; the value of their currency is state controlled. It is not on the floating currency market.

Another consideration in a conflict with China, be it a "cold war" or otherwise; China is a totalitarian state. Couple that with their culture and you have a country that is tailor-made to hunker down and ride out the kind of storms that would throw ours into a mixture of chaos and paralysis.
 
Something else to remember when considering China's domestic economy; the value of their currency is state controlled. It is not on the floating currency market.
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Internally, yes, but the little old men in Beijing can stomp their feet all they want to, and it won't change the fact that externally, on the world market, their currency's worth whatever someone's willing to pay for it, same as anyone else's currency.

Another consideration in a conflict with China, be it a "cold war" or otherwise; China is a totalitarian state.
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So was the CCCP.
 
[Tamara]"Internally, yes, but the little old men in Beijing can stomp their feet all they want to, and it won't change the fact that externally, on the world market, their currency's worth whatever someone's willing to pay for it, same as anyone else's currency."

.... Aye, and those little old men in Beijing have their own special "administrative province"; the drug, shipping port and money laundering capital of the world called Hong Kong, with it's own currency known as the Hong Kong Dollar.

China's export trade to Hong Kong is almost as high as to the United States (18% and 21% respectively in 2002). The over-the-table import/export trade partners of China and Hong Kong respectively, make an interesting comparison in themselves ....

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/hk.html

RE:[LAK]"Another consideration in a conflict with China, be it a "cold war" or otherwise; China is a totalitarian state." ... [Tamara] "So was the CCCP".

... Chinese culture is markedly different from the hodge podge of the CCCP. Most far eastern cultures have similar charactaristics of self discipline and frugality whether it be instilled or out of necessity. And even apart from the political doctrines of communism they tend to have closer family and communial attitudes.

Add their familiarity to basic agriculture, hard labor, menial manual work with little of the luxuries of western living - and contrast that with our current mainstream push-button culture. Imagine most people here suddenly having to stand in long lines for potable water, rationed food, long power failures and breakdowns in sanitation.
 
Another consideration in a conflict with China, be it a "cold war" or otherwise; China is a totalitarian state. Couple that with their culture and you have a country that is tailor-made to hunker down and ride out the kind of storms that would throw ours into a mixture of chaos and paralysis.
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And externally, that is true, but society is changing.
People change. People want luxuries, and with increased money are becoming used to them. Not on the same scale as the US, but it is there.
The people forced change, though the communist party may deny it. The move to partially open markets and special economic zones was not done because old men in power are visionaries.

the drug, shipping port and money laundering capital of the world
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Point out one busy port that is not a center for drug shipments and money laundering. All the legitamate dealings are great cover for both.
And selling drugs is a trade that the British went to war for.
 
Croyance,

It is not "the people" in China that have forced any change. The Chinese have simply adapted to what is advantageous for them and when it is so. There is much emphasis on the "party" in China, but make no mistake about it; "communism" is simply an ethic that has been used to connect the government with the people in China. The "party" is simply the propaganda machine that keeps it in operation. Should that change to a different "party" doctrine, it will still be the same oligarchs running the country. It has been the same in Russia.

There are certainly many people in the larger cities in China who will no doubt yearn for an electric can opener, a TV or other such things. But a very small proportion of China's total population. I believe it is something like 120 million alone are rural transient workers.

Sure, there are no doubt such operations in many ports over the globe; but Hong Kong is argueably the drug import/export and money laundering capital of the world. The place is hardly ever mentioned these days as such, and neither are the groups associated with it, with the attention being directed consistantly elsewhere ;)
 
The extent of changes in China is limited, so the party can monitor and keep power, yes. It would have been more advantageous to have changed earlier. They made the changes to keep power. In the long run, without these changes they would have been ousted.
On thing learned at Tianemen (sp) Square: soldiers from a city will not want to kill people from that city, no matter who is giving the orders. They had to bring in troops from other regions.
Want me to name a dictator who lost power because his soldiers realized they were killing their own people? Marcos.

While the urban population has the largest benifit of the increase material wealth of China, they are not the only ones. Those who do not yet have want. Never underestimate the power of materialistic garbage, such as the useless stuff Madison Avenue pushes on us.

120 million is an impressive number of migrant workers. That would be something like 42% of the US population/ In China though, it is more like 10%. Large, yes. Don't think none of the material wealth has reached them, though. They will want more.

I am not arguing your point about Hong Kong. My point is that it is true because of the scale of trade there that make such a thing true. And I would argue that every center of commerce is that way, not just some. More than a little of England's wealth was made in drug money. If its good enough for them, why not for the world?
 
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