No I agree with azredhawk, id say there is a 95% chance that in 50 years you are going to get yourself into a situation similar to the ones the statistic setters get themselves into, but obviously 2 million people a year don't shoot, so it would just be a pull out your gun thing, and that decison is on you. But remember this could be for anything, road rage, home invasion, robbery intervention, animal defense, carjacking defense. There are a million things that could happen, which is why people carry
What are the odds
- Thread starter Double Impact
- Start date
Let's see if my math minor from almost ten years ago is good for anything:
You do it by figuring out odds of the occurance *not* happening within 50 years, and subtracting it from 100%. The formula I get is 100% x (1 - (0.025 ^ 50)), which means 71.8% of needing to use a gun within 50 years.
Personally, I've been shot at once by drunks in the woods and had close brushes with wild dogs on two occassions, and I'm only 30-something. I ain't taking chances in the future.
You do it by figuring out odds of the occurance *not* happening within 50 years, and subtracting it from 100%. The formula I get is 100% x (1 - (0.025 ^ 50)), which means 71.8% of needing to use a gun within 50 years.
Personally, I've been shot at once by drunks in the woods and had close brushes with wild dogs on two occassions, and I'm only 30-something. I ain't taking chances in the future.
Emphasis by AZAK
Up until this point in my life I have never needed to actually use/draw/point/unholster/deter/or seriously think about using a weapon for self-defense in my home.
I have however drawn/pointed/detered/and seriously thought about using a gun when outside of my home on more than one occasion.
Could be that I live in Alaska, and for the most part the moose and bears stay out of my bedroom, but I go into theirs!
Also, I can not say enough about having dogs at home. Deterrent and loud alarm system rolled into a pretty happy bunch of packages! (Also good for one's blood pressure and such!)
If I thought that because of where I lived warranted a higher likelihood of home invasion than needing a SD gun outside in the rest of the world, I would take additional steps in preparing my home to dissuade a would be invader or just move.
cracked91 said:
So those uf us that have been walking this earth for 50 (or more) years without having to pull a weapon have just been lucky?
I believe the "odds" are very low that I'll have to show or use a weapon in my lifetime. But then I'm very wary of my surroundings and make a concious effort not to put myself into dangerous situations.
On second thought, I have used a shovel to dispatch rattlesnakes on occasion. Does this mean I've already used a weapon in self defense? In hindsight I could have (and probably should have) left them alone.
Are you the type likely to help out somebody else in need? That will affect your odds, bigtime.
Next: what's a "use"?
On the lowest end of the spectrum, just having a piece on you still concealed, you've made no motion towards it yet, may itself still be enough to give you to the confidence to verbally back down an assailant.
Is that "use" of a CCW-carried gun? I believe so. I'm quite sure Sarah Brady and other grabbers would disagree. But it's a VERY common use, maybe even the most common.
Next: what's a "use"?
On the lowest end of the spectrum, just having a piece on you still concealed, you've made no motion towards it yet, may itself still be enough to give you to the confidence to verbally back down an assailant.
Is that "use" of a CCW-carried gun? I believe so. I'm quite sure Sarah Brady and other grabbers would disagree. But it's a VERY common use, maybe even the most common.
Which gives the 63.6% probability I mentioned earlier. However, I don't think the 2% per year is anywhere close to the real figure. I just wanted to make sure everyone understood that there is a "sorta" cumulative effect but you simply cannot add up the odds each year.
But you never know when crime is going to hit. We were out with four other couples a while back and the topic turned to home burglaries. All five of us had experienced some sort of home intrusion. We all live in middle-class, supposedly low crime neighborhoods.
Just don't get you statistics from Mary Rosh
Even more respected people such as Kleck get in trouble when they try to extrapolate from what they get from polling data.
The FBI estimates about 400k crimes per year where guns were used, give or take a few tens of thousands.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm
I tend to doubt that defensive gun use is a bigger number than that.
Even more respected people such as Kleck get in trouble when they try to extrapolate from what they get from polling data.The FBI estimates about 400k crimes per year where guns were used, give or take a few tens of thousands.
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm
I tend to doubt that defensive gun use is a bigger number than that.
In my lifetime, spanning 50 years of either having a weapon on my person or in my vehicle. Twice just showing my gun and only once did I discharge it[ warning shot at a moron coming at me with a knife].Once I was the intended victim of a carjacking; if that is your chosen field, have the gun in your hand not in your waistband and be more selective of your target, I am 6'2" weigh 210 lbs and was carrying a 9mm. I spent six months as a armed bouncer in a biker bar and never once had to draw my weapon. Was held up once as the manager of a finance co. but it was against co. policy to to carry firearms.
Lost Sheep
New member
What do you carry for snake defense?
If you carried the shovel stuffed in your belt under a shirt, you were carrying a concealed weapon.
Lost Sheep
That depends. If you went after the snake with the shovel, you were hunting. If you used the shovel because you feared for you life or well-being (or that of another), it was self-defense.Sport45 said:
If you carried the shovel stuffed in your belt under a shirt, you were carrying a concealed weapon.
Lost Sheep
I'm in my early 50s and have never thought about drawing a gun for self-defense. I think a lot depends upon lifestyle, no guarantees of course. When I was young, my lifestyle was different and, had that continued, I may very well have needed to draw a gun for self-defense at some point. In fact, I can think of one occasion where I might have done so (jumped by five guys outside a bar) but it wasn't legal to carry concealed back then. I think there are a LOT of people who have not thought seriously about drawing a gun for self-defense.
You're going to have to show your work there WESHOOT2.
I may be a very lucky person, but my beating 50/50 every year for 50+ years would seem to test your calculations a bit.
That the average man has the need to threaten deadly force once every other year (or whatever time period you use) would mean that half the population of the US would have the necessity of using a firearm every year. That's about ~150,000,000 times a year someone would need to threaten deadly force.
Lets round up the crimes committed by firearms per year to 500,000. So we have 150,000,000/500,000 = 300. 300 times more per year when some one needs a firearm than there are crimes with guns in the UCR.
So I kinda need proof for real big numbers.