Well, you have a possible 7" of slop. The thing the ballistics programs do is assume a perfectly rigid barrel. With the actually gun, the faster loads will recoil slightly harder, but the bullet will also leave faster. With a revolver or a straight blow-back-operated pistol, I find this influence tends to exaggerate drop (hotter load impacts slightly higher, even at short ranges). With a pistol that has a barrel that locks up, the muzzle rise doesn't usually amount to much until after the bullet is gone, so it behaves a little more like the rigid barrel.
I used to shoot paper plates at 100 with the 1911. The trick was just to pick out a stone or other ground feature about a foot above the plate and then aim at that feature. Elmer Keith did it differently. He put horizontal lines on his front sights to mark how high the top edge of the rear sight blade should be at different ranges, and by keeping that blade level with the appropriate line, could hold the front sight directly on the target.
This series on stats at the Precision Rifle Blog maybe something some find useful.
I used to shoot paper plates at 100 with the 1911. The trick was just to pick out a stone or other ground feature about a foot above the plate and then aim at that feature. Elmer Keith did it differently. He put horizontal lines on his front sights to mark how high the top edge of the rear sight blade should be at different ranges, and by keeping that blade level with the appropriate line, could hold the front sight directly on the target.
This series on stats at the Precision Rifle Blog maybe something some find useful.