There is also a difference in how easily accessible the two places are to criminals from D.C. Montgomery County sits right on the D.C. line. You just walk across a street in Silver Spring, for example, and you are in D.C. But Virginia is across the Potomac River from D.C., so you need a car and have to cross a bridge.
This is Montgomery County, not Dodge City
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CM, I agree. I think that the difference is both based in education and economics. Generally a lower level of education being the limiting factor in the 'economic comfort' level one reaches in life and in per capita comparisons blacks are disporportionately represented in poor urban areas. I also agree that Byron's 'natural barrier' idea holds much merit. We all know that D.C. has a large crime rate and the perpetrators of those crimes would find it much easier and less expensive to cross into Montgomery County than Fairfax.
Covert Mission
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re: "Generally a lower level of education being the limiting factor in the 'economic comfort' level one reaches in life"
In reading the tale of woe in the paper today, about his wealth declining to only $49 BILLION or so, I guess college dropout Bill Gates is one exception to this!
In reading the tale of woe in the paper today, about his wealth declining to only $49 BILLION or so, I guess college dropout Bill Gates is one exception to this!
I learned a long time ago that the level of education that you achieve is not always learned in school. BG and Sam Walton were exceptions. Some people have gifts and talents that can be extremely valuable, as is found in professional sports. These are the exception. Poor Bill. $49 billion down from $90 billion. Do you think that he will have to sell the house?
I lived in the DC area for 25 years and don't claim to know all there is to know about it, BUT, especially for folks who have never been to the area, it is relevant to note that:
1. BOTH Montgomery County and neighboring Fairfax County are among the richest counties, per capita, in the country. This is accounted for in both instances by the high concentration of government bureaucrats who reside in both counties, black and white.Year in and year out the two counties compete to have their respective public high schools declared the best in the country, and they virtually take turns winning.
2. If you want to know the racial residential patterns that are relevant, they are the following. Generally, lower income blacks live in the Northeast section of the District of Columbia. Montgomery County is to the North and Northwest. Lower income blacks tend to move into the Maryland counties to the east of DC, Prince George's county for instance. But the geographical line blurs in the area directly north and continuing around toward PG county. It is impossible to draw meaningful inferences on the population of the two counties based upon race.
3. The biggest historical reason blacks have not moved into Virginia as frequently as to the east of DC is the invisible Mason-Dixon line which, politically at least, runs down the middle of the Potomac River. Remember, Richmond VA was the CAPITAL of the Confederacy.
It is an historical oddity, but remember that DC was supposed to have been created by taking a ten mile square from both Maryland and Virgina. FWIW, the Va part -- now known as Arlington County -- reverted back to Va sometime around the end of the 19th century. Look at a map. Draw a square around DC. It will overlap in the SW quadrant with Arlington county.
4. So what? History and politics explain more here than racial composition of the two counties. The blacks in western most portion of Montgomery County and Fairfax County have virtually the same demographics as their white brethren and sistren.
Income differences are more likely to be the engine for behavioral differences, and those differences don't track closely on a county by county basis because of the patterns I've described above.
The statistics presented don't make a powerful case for black v. white theories of crime because they don't show the income levels of the racial populations involved. Poor whites are just as likely to knock of 7-11's as poor whites, based on the data presented.
All the data shows is that areas with more POOR blacks have higher crime levels than areas with fewer POOR blacks. Go to Kentucky, Tennessee and my home state of W. Va. and you can prove the same thing with poor v. rich whites.
1. BOTH Montgomery County and neighboring Fairfax County are among the richest counties, per capita, in the country. This is accounted for in both instances by the high concentration of government bureaucrats who reside in both counties, black and white.Year in and year out the two counties compete to have their respective public high schools declared the best in the country, and they virtually take turns winning.
2. If you want to know the racial residential patterns that are relevant, they are the following. Generally, lower income blacks live in the Northeast section of the District of Columbia. Montgomery County is to the North and Northwest. Lower income blacks tend to move into the Maryland counties to the east of DC, Prince George's county for instance. But the geographical line blurs in the area directly north and continuing around toward PG county. It is impossible to draw meaningful inferences on the population of the two counties based upon race.
3. The biggest historical reason blacks have not moved into Virginia as frequently as to the east of DC is the invisible Mason-Dixon line which, politically at least, runs down the middle of the Potomac River. Remember, Richmond VA was the CAPITAL of the Confederacy.
It is an historical oddity, but remember that DC was supposed to have been created by taking a ten mile square from both Maryland and Virgina. FWIW, the Va part -- now known as Arlington County -- reverted back to Va sometime around the end of the 19th century. Look at a map. Draw a square around DC. It will overlap in the SW quadrant with Arlington county.
4. So what? History and politics explain more here than racial composition of the two counties. The blacks in western most portion of Montgomery County and Fairfax County have virtually the same demographics as their white brethren and sistren.
Income differences are more likely to be the engine for behavioral differences, and those differences don't track closely on a county by county basis because of the patterns I've described above.
The statistics presented don't make a powerful case for black v. white theories of crime because they don't show the income levels of the racial populations involved. Poor whites are just as likely to knock of 7-11's as poor whites, based on the data presented.
All the data shows is that areas with more POOR blacks have higher crime levels than areas with fewer POOR blacks. Go to Kentucky, Tennessee and my home state of W. Va. and you can prove the same thing with poor v. rich whites.
The Mason-Dixon Line does not run down the Potomac River; it runs along the boundary between Pennsylvania and Maryland. I'd guess that the principal reason Blacks have migrated east from D.C. has nothing to do with memories of the Confederacy, but is to be found in the dramatically lower housing costs in Prince Georges Co., compared with pricey Fairfax.
The crime rate difference between Montgomery and Fairfax counties are probably accounted for by (1) Montgomery County's much more intimate proximity to D.C., with attendant spillover (predation?) from the District's enormous criminal class (not counting Congress), and (2) Montgomery County's greater racial-economic inequality; Takoma Park is nothing like Chevy Chase or North Potomac.
The crime rate difference between Montgomery and Fairfax counties are probably accounted for by (1) Montgomery County's much more intimate proximity to D.C., with attendant spillover (predation?) from the District's enormous criminal class (not counting Congress), and (2) Montgomery County's greater racial-economic inequality; Takoma Park is nothing like Chevy Chase or North Potomac.
"The Mason-Dixon Line does not run down the Potomac River; it runs along the boundary between Pennsylvania and Maryland."
I'm aware of the GEOGRAPHY, that's why I said POLITICALLY it ran down the middle of the Potomac. My observations about the residential preferences are based on comments to me from black friends. It doesn't explain everything, just some.
Also, I don't regard Takoma Park's economic diversity anything remotely approaching the difference between PG county and either Bethesda/Chevy Chase or Fairfax. They are worlds apart. PG gets the spillover from the Anacostia area of DC which is far and away the poorest area in the region.
I still don't see any basis for projecting criminal behavior on the basis of race; income yes.
I'm aware of the GEOGRAPHY, that's why I said POLITICALLY it ran down the middle of the Potomac. My observations about the residential preferences are based on comments to me from black friends. It doesn't explain everything, just some.
Also, I don't regard Takoma Park's economic diversity anything remotely approaching the difference between PG county and either Bethesda/Chevy Chase or Fairfax. They are worlds apart. PG gets the spillover from the Anacostia area of DC which is far and away the poorest area in the region.
I still don't see any basis for projecting criminal behavior on the basis of race; income yes.
Covert Mission
New member
Abruzzi: THANKS for the very informative post.
re: "All the data shows is that areas with more POOR blacks have higher crime levels than areas with fewer POOR blacks. Go to Kentucky, Tennessee and my home state of W. Va.and you can prove the same thing with poor v. rich whites."
That was what I was trying to get at... that crime rates are a far greater function of economics and opportunity (and education, etc) than of race. My understanding is that white poverty (and the attendant crime by poor whites) is more generally rural, while black poverty/crime (the deep south excepted possibly) is more urban.
This is a good discussion and clarification, and for me, points EXACTLY to the effectiveness of strong law enforcement and criminal control, and the weakness of liberal systems like MD's, when discussing crime rates. That, in addition to the effectiveness of people having the opportunity for CCW and self-defense that is less restricted.
re: "All the data shows is that areas with more POOR blacks have higher crime levels than areas with fewer POOR blacks. Go to Kentucky, Tennessee and my home state of W. Va.and you can prove the same thing with poor v. rich whites."
That was what I was trying to get at... that crime rates are a far greater function of economics and opportunity (and education, etc) than of race. My understanding is that white poverty (and the attendant crime by poor whites) is more generally rural, while black poverty/crime (the deep south excepted possibly) is more urban.
This is a good discussion and clarification, and for me, points EXACTLY to the effectiveness of strong law enforcement and criminal control, and the weakness of liberal systems like MD's, when discussing crime rates. That, in addition to the effectiveness of people having the opportunity for CCW and self-defense that is less restricted.