The Truth about the Rimfire Shortage

Semi-auto 22s have been selling well, and shot heavily, for decades.
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Yep, my first 22 rifle was a semi-auto when I was in the 9th grade. Shot it a lot as you might imagine considering we lived out in the country and could shoot out the back window if we chose to.

What is not new are the AR type of 22 rifles, but I don't think there are enough of those to make that much difference. What has changed is that you don't usually buy just enough especially with the shortages in the last 6 years if you have an opportunity to buy at a price your comfortable with. You buy more than you need at the time and save it for the next outing or the one after that. Then you run into some more ammunition and buy that... you have the beginnings of a sizeable cache of 22LR. Call that hoarding if you like. But I don't. I call it smart and forward thinking.

I believe this kind of thinking is pervasive in the shooting community from casual plinkers who do pay attention to availablity to people who just normally shoot a lot of 22LR.

I still believe the bulk pack pachaging has a lot to do with it. If I am going take a walk in the woods and do some plinking, I might grab a box or two 50 ct boxes to take with me. But if I am in a store buying for that outing, I grab the same box or two but instead of it being 100 rounds, it's 1000.

Many of you will remember when CCI started packaging their ammo in 100 round boxes. Remington did the same thing. At the time, I thought that was a lot of ammo, and I bought many of those 100 round boxes. These were sized at about the biggest pocket size you might be comfortable carrying during a walk in the woods.
 
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Mike Irwin said:
If eacy of the companies were producing 4 million rounds a day, every day, US capacity would be just shy of 6 billion rounds a year.
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Divide that number by the 300 million people that inhabit the U.S.A. and that comes out to about 20 rounds per person.
 
I've got 4 bulk paks of Rem Golden that are at least 15 years old from a two case lot I bought. I still have a brick of MiniMag that I bought in 1991; last of the case and a great lot of ammo to boot.

There were those of use 20 and more years ago that bought in case quantities; picking up a brick was just topping off or trying something new out. If I found a good lot of ammo at a good price, I bought a case. And that was blasting ammo.

My friends bought at least in brick quantity as a norm and usually had several at the house. When we decided to go out, we didn't stop at the store for ammo..we already had it. I guess things are different when you have to drive 3+ hours to where you can shoot what you want without being bothered.

Talking to the guys on the other side of the counter I have heard it is the usual suspects every week waiting for the truck to come and then trying to clean them out. Wed. morning 9-10 am is when the truck comes. These folks are waiting to see what is unloaded. Hoarders and flippers.
 
Six billion rounds comes to about 100 rounds for 50 million shooters. Not much.

In any area, just a dozen people could create a shortage by buying up what they can, creating a snowball effect in a short time.
 
I got to talk to an Eley Sales Representative at the 2014 Bristol IN Small Bore Prone Nationals. She said Eley was up to three shifts a day, but were not going to add industrial capacity, because in their estimation, this was all a panic. It is a business decision whether or not to add infrastructure, and if it turns out to be a bust, the company is stuck with expensive, idle buildings and equipment.

She also said Obama was their best Sales Representative. :mad:
 
I think the situation is easing. I stop into the local Cabelas once a week or so and lately, more often then not, they have some sort of .22 rimfire in stock. They still have a two box limit though.
I just look, I don't buy. I'm kind of picky about what kind of ammo I buy and I haven't seen my favorite anywhere since Sandy Hook. I'm just monitoring the situation.

Right now, it's shotgun powder that's unobtanium. I switched from Red Dot to Hi-Skor 700X lately mostly because that's what I can get.
Primers, no problem.
Shot, no problem.
Wads, no problem.
But no shotgun powder anywhere.

Interestingly, the panic never seemed to affect black powder that much. I think the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it crowd are learning to make their own powder instead of hoarding commercially made powder.
 
Oh, I miss the days of $5.00 for 500 rounds. That was a common sale price for promotional 22LR back in the 70's. This all changed to $10 being a good price. Now it's $20-$25. You notice it doubles rather than go up in smaller increments. So, I guess $40 is the next price jump.

I think the situation is easing.
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I do as well. But it is easing very very slowly and nothing like the way center fire ammunition came back after the big panic buy. I really don't even look for 22LR ammo anymore. I'm tired of it all and have a good amount of the cheaper stuff already.

Ammo is available online. But I refuse to purchase promotional grade 22LR on line unless it is a really good price which it isn't, and in case lots. Walmart always kept me supplied with my favored Federal 510B's for general purpose shooting prior to the shortage.
 
If Valupaks were causing problems, they would have caused problems LONG before summer of 2007.


"Six billion rounds comes to about 100 rounds for 50 million shooters. Not much."

And yet for years before summer 2007 3 to 5 billion rounds a year (produced and imported) was MORE than adequate to ensure the supply of as much .22 LR ammo as shooters wanted.

Bricks and Valupaks weren't the problem.

Idiots were, and continue to be, the problem.

Once again, this is born out by facts, and by the observations of the industry.

Any other "explanation" is simply baseless guesswork, which in its own silly way is no different from people screaming "The Gubmint's buying up all the ammo! It's how they're disarming us!"

Stupid.
 
Oh, I miss the days of $5.00 for 500 rounds. That was a common sale price for promotional 22LR back in the 70's. This all changed to $10 being a good price. Now it's $20-$25. You notice it doubles rather than go up in smaller increments
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Doubling every 10-20 years isn't really that much.
 
Prior to 1986 ammunition across the board was considerably more expensive because imports were so tightly curtailed.

FOPA 1986 opened up US markets to both surplus firearms and ammunition of all types.
 
What we need to see in order increase availability is a significant price increase from the manufacturers.

No really.

If Federal, CCI, Remington, Eley, et al, raised their prices to more accurately reflect the supply/demand imbalance, hoarders would be able to afford less ammo, and the flippers would have less potential profit margin, easing demand and bringing things back into alignment sooner.

But it would tick off a lot of people, who would scream about price "gouging". So the manufacturers forgo higher short-term profits (which could help justify expanding capacity) for public relations purposes, then get blamed for not making enough ammo to satisfy demand.
 
Mike, I know that the shortage is a combination of things that have come together. It pretty much started with panic buying resulting from a reaction to politics.

You are totally correct in my opinion that value pack/bulk packaging did not create the shortage.

I also don't think the home caches are not being shot up or consumed by the average shooter as they were normally because of replacement difficulty.
 
I own a manufacturing plant (parts fabricated from powder metal-primarily supplied to new cars), and through the years I've learned you do not build on speculation-you only build per orders. Forecasts help, but you only build when orders are firm. Inventory is a make or break cost to manufacturers, and even though the value is carried as an asset, it is a cost until the goods are sold.

Regarding .22 rimfire ammo, I'm sure Federal, CCI, and the rest of manufacturers would welcome additional sales, but they all recognize that without firm commitments from customers, to run product is all their (the manufacturer's) risk.
 
I dunno squat about why there is or was a shortage of 22 on the shelves but I do know that I got ANOTHER 3 bulk packs of federal .22 at Wally World today for &16.97 per box. My Wally has been getting pretty good stock here lately. And; I'm not stockpiling it; I'm shooting the crap out of it!
 
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I own a manufacturing plant (parts fabricated from powder metal-primarily supplied to new cars), and through the years I've learned you do not build on speculation-you only build per orders. Forecasts help, but you only build when orders are firm. Inventory is a make or break cost to manufacturers, and even though the value is carried as an asset, it is a cost until the goods are sold.
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And that is the same for end users, whether industrial, commercial, or retail. Can't afford to have inventory sitting on the shelf. In some cases it is inevitable, so you manage what you can
 
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