The Post-Election Anti-Panic Thread

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carguychris

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I'm sure that many of us in the gun community are celebrating the political implications of the recent election; those implications have been so thoroughly discussed elsewhere that I won't touch on them here.

Let's touch on the practical consequences. Barring another mass shooting (fingers crossed), I think it's fairly obvious that another panic buying spree—or Panicky Squirrel Rodeo as Glenn L. Meyer deftly phrased it :)—will NOT happen.

My predictions:
  1. .22LR supplies will finally refer to their pre-2013 state of normalcy, and it will happen fairly quickly, although my previous predictions on this topic were wrong, so I'm not hedging my bets. :rolleyes:
  2. Certain powders and other reloading supplies will reappear on store shelves.
  3. The current modest oversupply of 9mm, .40, and 5.56 will transition into an all-out glut, depressing already-low prices even further.
  4. Same goes for AR magazines and lower-end parts. This will be a GREAT time to tinker with an AR on the cheap. :D
  5. There will be no wild sales run, which will be GOOD in the long run for many gun shops because they won't be torn between holding the line on prices and consequently running out of product to sell, or jacking up prices and then being accused of "gouging" by the gun-enthusiast community. :rolleyes: There will be a leveling effect on new-gun prices and prices of used guns will drop, yet your LGS will probably be making MORE money. :)
  6. There will be an industry-wide fire sale on 9mm/.40 full-size tactical plastic.
  7. New gun owners will not be frustrated by a lack of ammo or spare magazines for their new purchases. This will be a VERY good time to get new people involved. :cool:
In summary, I think the election results are bad for wholesalers and manufacturers but good for retailers and consumers.

Additional comments and thoughts?
 
1. .22 comeback will be slow. People who shoot .22s shoot more than they used to. Hoarders will continue to hoard because they cannot recover their scalper's prices. As somebody said, a generation from now, the hoarders heirs will be selling .22 cheap.
2. Agree. I expect my pre-election backorder of supplies sufficient to see me through the first Clinton II administration to be filled in short order.
4. Agree. Going to be a lot of "lowers" even cheaper than before because they will have no speculative value and their speculator owners don't really know what to do with them.


Agree with others, mostly.
 
I'm thinking we may be seeing some good sale prices for black rifles in the near future, depending on how much stocking up dealers have been doing... :)
 
I certainly hope all these predictions are correct. It is indeed a big surprise to see this opportunity come up.
 
I'm with Jim on the .22. In the last decade, much of the .22 usage has changed from the low round count plinker to the high round count AR-styled "sprayer". Ammo manufacturers just haven't been willing to make a permanent transition to this new volume of usage.
 
While I haven't been shopping for one it does seems there are fewer AR Pistols in the LGS, so that might change.
 
I wish I could participate in you all's hopes and dreams . How ever I'm in CA where we banned all semi auto center fire firearms that have detachable mags and one other evil feature starting 2017 . Meaning no more AR's , AK's , ACR , Tavor , etc can be imported , sold or manufactured in CA after Dec 31 2016 . Then there's prop 63 that just past that will be a huge ammo restriction . So although I'm glad for the country as a whole I and many others in my state do not get to celibate the Trump win as others do around the country .
 
Doyle said:
In the last decade, much of the .22 usage has changed from the low round count plinker to the high round count AR-styled "sprayer".
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Good point.

Perhaps a more conservative forecast would be that the supply will pick up, but we won't return to pre-2008± prices, i.e. before "PSR-I;" IOW the days of 550rd Federal bricks at Walmart for $8.88 will become a distant memory. :(
 
.22 shortage brought more people into the .223 game.
I know the politics is against the rules, but there are some really sore losers out there, we are in for some more shenanigans.

Now, quite some time ago I promised to eat my words if Secretary Clinton lost the election.... I've got to go find that post, print it off and have it for breakfast.

I plan to keep a stock of ammo, no matter who is president. I went two years without being able to shoot during the 08 panic, I don't want to experience that again.
I am positive for a while, even tho we lost another firearms law in Washington
 
Then there's prop 63 that just past that will be a huge ammo restriction .
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It looks like you're referring to the law that requires a background check whenever buying ammo. Or as the article puts it, "requires background checks for people buying bullets".

Of course, it can't work. How would that be paid for? Would you have to pay a background check fee as you do when buying a gun, except you'd have to do it each time you buy a box of ammo? It would almost certainly overwhelm the background check system. The only solution is to make a single online purchase of all the ammo you think you'll use over a 10 year period. One background check would then get you through the next 10 years! I wouldn't want to be the mailman who delivers that package though! :eek:
 
I spent some time the last few days considering a center-fire upper, but didn't buy. Sure happy about that decision right now. 22LR might come back pretty fast, especially since we are headed into winter.
 
There's much more to it. The fact you need a background check means no more internet sales all sales must be face to face . I believe it will also require a licence to sell ammo in CA , because of that some say just giving your friend ammo at the range could be in violation .

There was a wierd thing going on with this prop. If it passed then it inacted other things while canceling out others . It was very complex but it's already in court . The latest filing from our side chalenged the instanceness of the background check . The anti's claim this is to stop prohibited persons from buying ammo . After all it you are prohibited from owning or possessing a firearm why would you need to buy ammo. Here's the issue , we have a 10 day waiting period to buy firearms and the state claims they need all that time to run the check . Well then why wont the instant background check work for firearm purchases . It either is going to stop prohibited persons or not . If it's not going to work as good as the firearm check , why have it ? If it will then why have a 10 day waiting period ?
 
.22LR supplies will finally refer to their pre-2013 state of normalcy, and it will happen fairly quickly, although my previous predictions on this topic were wrong, so I'm not hedging my bets.
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From your lips to hoarders ears. I have been seeing prices below $.06/rd for a couple of months though so it is coming.

Certain powders and other reloading supplies will reappear on store shelves.
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Doubtful. Shooting has taken off and reloading with it. Makers are not keeping up.

The current modest oversupply of 9mm, .40, and 5.56 will transition into an all-out glut, depressing already-low prices even further.
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Makers are keeping up with ammo demand but it they cut back based on lower projected sales... so IDK.

Same goes for AR magazines and lower-end parts. This will be a GREAT time to tinker with an AR on the cheap.
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These are already really cheap. $6 for a new mag and $21 for a LPK does not give much room to drop.
There will be no wild sales run, which will be GOOD in the long run for many gun shops because they won't be torn between holding the line on prices and consequently running out of product to sell, or jacking up prices and then being accused of "gouging" by the gun-enthusiast community. There will be a leveling effect on new-gun prices and prices of used guns will drop, yet your LGS will probably be making MORE money.
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Some are going to exit the gun market it is inevitable.

There will be an industry-wide fire sale on 9mm/.40 full-size tactical plastic.
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The fire sale on .40 Guns has been in full swing for about a year. As more and more LEAs leave the 40 and get into the 9 there has been a big glut of guns on the market. IDK about the 9 dropping in price. Demand will have to die off quick.

New gun owners will not be frustrated by a lack of ammo or spare magazines for their new purchases. This will be a VERY good time to get new people involved.
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Lets hope so.
 
OBD, I concur with some of your points.

I do think that the predicted 9mm/.40/5.56 glut and 9mm/.40 full-size pistol sale will probably be short-lived, lasting only until the manufacturers cut production, but the going will be good in the interim. :) I strongly suspect that those manufacturers temporarily upped production as a contingency for the election going the other way.

Regarding little room to drop, I suspect that the AR/AK glut may get bloody for small-scale parts manufacturers whose products don't offer much perceived value over more established competition (e.g. Me-Too muzzle devices).
 
I am so happy that all of the .22LR hoarder/speculators will now have no market for their greedy purchases. I hope they all choke on their credit card debt that they incurred when they stood in line to take all the .22s from people who actually shoot them. They deserve the losses they will incur when they are forced to sell off their stash for a loss because they need to eat and their credit cards are maxed out and past due.
 
Ammo manufacturers just haven't been willing to make a permanent transition to this new volume of usage.
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A very expensive endeavor and a long time to recoup the investment. Now I'll pose the question what happens when the volume drops off as I have seen with the production or AR parts with the company I retired from and now you have an over abundance of employee's and machinery that is idle due to the drop in orders?? CNC is a whole other animal, and as we were in time able to find other work for the machines. People on the other hand had to go through the lay off's. Loading machines that produce 22's is all they will do unless major money is spent if its even possible to convert them to a different caliber. They are a lot smarter and savey in business than we think.
 
Well I can't be enthusiastic as protesters are blocking freeways in my area...
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Hopefully these societal leeches/scum will realize that things just got real and they had better spend their energy finding a job.
 
Hopefully these societal leeches/scum will realize that things just got real and they had better spend their energy finding a job.
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I laughed till I cried... seriously... "spend their energy finding a job".... oh boy I am chuckling again. You are one funny Porsche...
 
Well I can't be enthusiastic as protesters are blocking freeways in my area...

The election could have went either way. Protesters? Cmon, The results are the voice of the average real American person. You know the kind, they go to work, get paid, feed and shelter their family, rinse repeat.....

Charity begins at home.... Mr Trump changes the status quo, which is what we needed. Lets restore America, and start the end of the parasitic draw on America. Then when manufacturing becomes the new norm in the USA, and mid market businesses are rewarded as opposed to punished, maybe some new high quality manufacturers of all types of ammo can enter the market.

God Bless the USA !!!!!!
 
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