The most important rule of self defense - Statistics

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I don't know about you but I don't prepare for trouble based on the statistical probability of what might happen to me.
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Sure you do. You probably don't have a can of shark repellent with you right now. Why not? Because you have figured out that the probability of you being attacked by a shark at this point and time is virtually nonexistent.
I take into account the general categories of bad things that happen (regardless of the "odds" of them actually happening) and try to work with broad spectrum tools and techniques that stand a chance of working under the widest variety of conditions.
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And that, my friend, is a form of statistical analysis. It isn't high level and real precise, but you are still analyzing the data you have and then determining what actions you need to take to reduce your likelihood of danger. You do take into account the "odds" of them actually happening, you just don't do it on a conscious level.
 
And that, my friend, is a form of statistical analysis. It isn't high level and real precise, but you are still analyzing the data you have and then determining what actions you need to take to reduce your likelihood of danger. You do take into account the "odds" of them actually happening, you just don't do it on a conscious level.
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That conscious level bit is what gets people. I think a lot of people are thinking about charts and data plots and bell curves and going "What the...? I don't use statistics. These guys are crazy." We tend not to realize the amount of data our unconscious minds process, informing our conscious decisions, without any effort at all.
 
We tend not to realize the amount of data our unconscious minds process, informing our conscious decisions, without any effort at all.
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Exactly. Lots of the time when people talk about things like "a gut feeling" or "common sense" or "it just makes sense" or "it doesn't seem likely" or any of the dozen other phrases we toss around, it is that unconscious process back there doing the stats and sending us a message. Like Glenn said, "When someone says they don't take into account the odds, that's just not true. We predict possible outcomes on most things we do." We just don't realize that we are making those predictions based on what we think the odds are.
 
I've always figured it wasn't the ODDS that mattered, so much as the STAKES.
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It's both and more.

If the stakes are negligible then it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of time/money/effort preparing for that situation regardless of the odds.

But when the stakes are large then you have to weigh the odds, your ability to make a difference and the amount of time/effort/money you can/are willing to spend.

For example, the stakes of an airliner falling on my house are huge, but the odds are astronomically small. I could protect my house by encasing it in a concrete/steel dome like they use to protect nuclear reactors, but it would take a huge amount of time/effort/money.

Given the tiny odds and the tremendous difficulty in making a difference I choose not to prepare for this event even though the stakes are tremendous.

Now, let's say that tomorrow a device comes on the market that sells at any Wal-Mart for $2.99, that plugs into a standard outlet and emits a forcefield that repels all falling aircraft. Now the time/effort/money required to protect my house is virtually nil so I might spring for the $3 even though the odds and stakes haven't changed.

Let's say that I'm worried about an asteroid hitting my house. Now nothing I can do will make a difference so the odds & stakes don't matter a bit.

Ok, for a more practical example let's look at carrying a handgun.

The odds of having to use deadly force in self-defense are quite small, but the stakes are quite large. It's a situation where the statistics show it's very likely one can improve his chances of a successful outcome if he has a handgun available.

Scenario 1: I hate guns, am on a very limited income, am allergic to steel and live in a place where guns are difficult to purchase and impossible to carry. Conclusion? I don't want a handgun, don't have the money for one, would have a hard time buying one if I wanted, it would make me sick to touch it and I couldn't carry it no matter what. So regardless of the stakes, the odds and the fact that I COULD make a difference if I had a handgun I'm not going that direction. The time/effort/money/illegality required to make it happen render the solution infeasible. So instead I buy a squirt gun and fill it with lemon juice to spray in the attacker's eyes. :rolleyes:

Scenario 2: I shoot handguns for competition, already have a concealed carry permit because it simplifies purchases and transporting firearms and I can buy the perfect carry pistol & hoslter for less than my take-home pay from a single day of work. Now carrying a handgun looks very attractive although the stakes & odds haven't changed a bit.
 
I like to see statistics about a subject. I don't know how to analyze or compare them to get a valid conclusion, but I still like to see them

My favorite saying about statistics:

Statistics are like a bikini. What they show is interesting...and
what they hide is critical.

Don't know who said it, just know I like it.:D

Mark.
 
Statistics are best left to mathmeticians and politicians, they have absolutely NO place in the decision making process in time of crisis. No further discussion required or needed. Close this thread!
 
...they have absolutely NO place in the decision making process in time of crisis.
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Correct. This is why it's important to think things through ahead of time so that you have a basic framework to operate from BEFORE things turn bad.
 
My post from another thread...which shows that I for one have thought about it beforehand.


I live every waking hour in condition yellow now. Sometimes I think I may be overdoing it but I'm ok with that. Im not scared of what may happen but I am afraid. I'm afraid for my family and your family, but I'm not scared. Know what I mean? Every day when I wake up I say to myself "today may be the day" and I'm afraid but I'm not scared.
 
Correct. This is why it's important to think things through ahead of time so that you have a basic framework to operate from BEFORE things turn bad.
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John I agree with you on the thinking it through part but where I have issue is when some take "statistics" out of academic papers without showing the context or bias and telling you to use them when thinking it through beforehand. The danger is that if you don't really understand what these mathmatical formulae mean then you might come up with a poor plan.

As an aside, when I took statistics in grad school one of the most misunderstood concepts was the confidence interval. People who didn't understand statistics thought it meant one thing and it didn't.

I agree somewhat with supergas in that these academic studies had little or no bearing on what our plan may be as they might be misunderstood.

Of course some folk just like to try to come on here and show their academic schtick to get credibility. But I will leave that alone.
 
they have absolutely NO place in the decision making process in time of crisis.
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On a formal level you are correct. Your unconscious brain, however, doesn't give a rats behind what your conscious brain is doing. Lets say your in a bank and 8 guys charge in with AK-47s. You're making literally dozen of decisions on a second by second basis. Do you run? Follow their instructions? Have they seen me? Do I hide? Dial 911 on my cell? All this takes fractions of a second. Meanwhile, your unconscious mind is constantly informing those decisions with its' "odds calculations"... "That BG is directly between me and the door, I CAN'T GO THAT WAY..."
What is it that tells you that you can't go that way? Like David said, we call it a lot of things, in this case we'd probably say that "common sense" says I can't go that way. What's really happening though? Your brain, partly consciously and partly not, is telling you that the ODDS of making it out that door are slim and the stakes for failure are high. Is it possible that you'd make it? Yes, of course, the odds might be 1:1,000,000,000, but it's possible.

When it comes right down to it, virtually every decision we make is based on odds. Do I want to have children? If the odds were 100% that the kid would become a delinquent, I'd say "Hell No!" In real life the odds are good that my baby will be healthy, my wife will be safe, my kid will be no "worse" than any other and we'll grow old and enjoy life together. So, I have kids.

Starting a business? What are the odds and stakes of failure? What are the rewards of success?

All most everything is based on odds. We just don't "think" about it very often. Mostly, those odds are on a very informal, non-compiled level. Occasionally it helps to have the numbers put together in a formal way to aid in our understanding.
 
If you want to discuss how we make decisions and your theory of such, please go ahead.

If you want to discuss personal motivations for discussing risk analysis - nope.

To get us on track:

What information do you use to make a rational decision about what actions to take?

Is it the likelihood of outcomes, per se?
Is it the likelihood of outcomes X results of such outcomes?
Is it the emotional vividness of an error that causes you to overvalue some action? - That's a well known effect.
What's your cutoff point for worrying about an outcome?
Or something similar.

If we start to snipe, then we are going in circles and guess what!
 
Statistics are best left to mathmeticians and politicians, they have absolutely NO place in the decision making process in time of crisis.
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You have just fallen off a cliff. As you are falling, you see a rope hanging from the cliff and a sparrow flying by. Both are in reach. Which one do you grab in this time of crisis? BTW, that is a decision-making process based on statistical analysis.
 
I brought this topic up to point out how valuable it is to be anal about training and approaching situations in high risk-low probability situations.

Many times people will convince themselves that since there has been no incident of something happening that it will never happen. However, this is far from the truth. For example, a person who starts their car each morning gets used to the fact that it will start on the first try. There will be that day in the future it will not start on the first try.

Just like in self-defense situations. We dont know when exactly it will happen, but after a number of times, it will happen. Therefore, for law enforcement, training and protocol is very important. For civilians, the best practice is situational avoidance.

Should you walk outside of your house at night without first turning on the lights and looking out the window? Even though there has been no incident after several years doesnt mean it will never happen. In fact, after a series of no incidents tells me that it might be just about to happen...;)
 
The danger is that if you don't really understand what these mathmatical formulae mean then you might come up with a poor plan.
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So what are you suggesting as an alternative that would make one less likely to come up with a poor plan?
 
"I live every waking hour in condition yellow now. Sometimes I think I may be overdoing it but I'm ok with that. Im not scared of what may happen but I am afraid. I'm afraid for my family and your family, but I'm not scared. Know what I mean? Every day when I wake up I say to myself "today may be the day" and I'm afraid but I'm not scared"

I think this is way too overboard. I was thinking more along the lines of the way we approach routine situations on a daily basis.
 
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