The great primer shortage

I afree with USSR and Powder Valley’s assessment . There are several factors this time around we did have the last few times . The Remington issue and no foreign primers coming in to relieve the shortage seems like big contributors to what may be a long time before we see any relief . Keeping in mind that the fact there are no primers and no end in sight will not allow the panic to subside. I know I will buy all the primers I find in the next year regardless if I need them. I suspect many others will do the same not allowing the panic to ease any time soon

. I already made two mistakes this year I hope don’t come back to bite me . I canceled a order of 5k rifle primers that was ready to ship and gave away 3k SP pimers to friends . Now I still have enough for now but it already has changed my shooting habits . Im reluctantly shooting tomorrow but likely will not be making my bi-weekly trips anymore and those will turn into bi-monthly at best and more likely will be bi-quarterly untill I get my hads on many more primers . I also see a lot more 22lr shooting in my future.
 
PHP:
Before this all REALLY started happening, I decided to scoop some 22LR off the shelf. I just had a feeling. Brought 2,000 rounds home that day on top of my 10k or so. Next month - no 22 anywhere. It was an eerie feeling I had. I'm doing the same with food now.

Same with primers but back in 2018. Bought probably 12k that year. "Election's in two years", I thought. It was a good decision. And yesterday I uncovered multiple hundred loaded rounds I never knew I had. That was a great feeling.

I feel especially bad for the guys who are just getting into reloading right now. I got started during the Obama era and my credit card debt went sky high. I got it all paid off in 2017 finally.
 
I'm starting to think flintlocks aren't such a bad idea -- all you need is a good rock!!
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Ssshhhhh... to be fair it’s a special kind of rock. While abundant and not overly hard to shape, it’s easier just to buy it ready to go. Don’t let the word get out or those (along with lead, saltpeter, and sulfur) will start to dry up too.
 
I foresee much use for my Pietta 1851 Navy soon...that and I have a couple of CO2 pistols buried somewhere, and a TON of cylinders, no idea where I got them.
I should look into a flintlock...
 
I too am hard at work sketching up drawings for my 270 degree turret slingshot water balloon launcher w/ fiber optic sights.
 
I had a long telephone chat on Thanksgiving day with a friend who is a retired police chief in Washington (state). One of his retirement ventures (with an associate) is a small ammunition manufacturing company. He said they do mostly 9mm, .45 ACP, .223. and something else.

Except they can't load any 9mm at the moment because they can't get small pistol primers. So if people in the industry can't get them, we peons don't stand a chance.
 
I just can't help believe this shortage crises isn't a bit contrived.

Seriously, seems to me that if the demand is that high, the manufacturers would be running the mills day and night. Better is more, and more is greater profit. Basic business.

I find it absurd that ammo like .380 and .38, are in critical short supply. No matter how you feel about those two calibers, they are very popular for self defense.

According to bonified research, NOT opinion, the following calibers are the most popular in the U.S.

1. 9mm
2. 223/5.56
3. .45
4. 12 gauge
5. 22 LR
6. 40 S and W
7. .380
8. .308 NATO
9. .38 and 357 magnum combined.
10. 7.62 x 39

You would think 9mm, 223 and .45 would be in short supply.

That is not the case, .380 and .38 are critical. That is absurd, in my opinion. Someone is providing 7.62x39, 40 s and w, 12 gauge, 22 LR, 223, .45 and 9mm.

Some others are driving up the price of .380 and .38.

This happened with .22 ammo. Over the past 5 years .22 has gone from .05 a round to nearly .12-15 c a round. Now they are doing it with .380 and .38.

At the gunshows around here there are no problems with the top three calibers. plenty of ammo. I don't know about 40 s and w as I have never even shot one of those let alone own one.

My daughters and grand daughters love their .380's and .38 specials. I am having a heck of a time finding it.


Some interesting data is available here:
http://knowledgeglue.com/what-are-the-most-popular-calibers-in-the-us/
 
Seriously, seems to me that if the demand is that high, the manufacturers would be running the mills day and night. Better is more, and more is greater profit. Basic business.
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They ARE running things day and night. Now the question is, do they lay out the $$$ to increase production capability for something that may be over with in a year or two? As you said "Basic business".

Don
 
If you had the opportunity and ability to turn out a million (pick a number) rounds a day for the marketplace and sell them all, day after day, with no retooling for other calibers, which calibers would you produce? The most popular ones or those further down the list?
 
Commander47 said:
seems to me that if the demand is that high, the manufacturers would be running the mills day and night. Better is more, and more is greater profit. Basic business.
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That's a wonderful couch assessment of the ideal business strategy, but the reality is that manufacturing plants only have "X" amount of employees that can work "x" amount of hours. To INCREASE production takes ADDED worker resources. There's only two options, have established workers work longer overtime hours, or hire new inexperienced workers. Training new hires takes established workers away from their normal productive tasks, which actually LESSENS production, and takes months to effectively train new hires. All this is not even factoring in the adverse employee affects that Covid19 places on manufacturing facilities. Health comes FIRST, not product production. Plain and simple the established primer manufacturing industry was blindsided by this abrupt current panic, and they are not going to substantially increase production to meet a proven in the past volatile "here today, gone tomorrow" type of demand.
 
Commander47 said:
I just can't help believe this shortage crises isn't a bit contrived.
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I don't think it (the shortage) is contrived. I think it's the result of a perfect storm: the convergence of an election that holds gun rights in the crosshairs, the coronavirus, and the "mostly peaceful" riots in major cities such as Seattle and Portland.

I had a chat today with a recently-retired FFL. He still has contacts at the BATFE. He said there are more than 5 million new gun owners in 2020 -- and the year hasn't ended. Numerous other sources agree with that estimate. So let's assume that each of those 5 million new gun buyers each bought two 50-round boxes of ammo. That's 250 million rounds of ammunition -- over and above what all the existing gun owners (many of whom sought and are seeking to stock up because of the election) bought.

The ammo makers are running at full capacity, but because they got burned the last time when they increased capacity and then demand dropped off, this time around they are consciously deciding NOT to expand and add new capacity. They'll do the best they can with their existing capacity, but they aren't planning to increase capacity.

The biggest bottleneck is primers. As I posted above, even small ammo manufacturers can't get primers. If you can't get primers, you can't make ammunition.
 
"If you can't get primers, you can't make ammunition."

Beware that the Democrats pick up on that - great silent move for gun control. Have Fed Govt buy all primers and/or tax them heavily to increase prices and decrease demand.
 
I cant speak for the ammo industry but if it is anything like the construction industry we are having a helluva time putting out product because of material shortages due to covid and trucking employee issues related to the china virus, and plain ole employee shortages because of the china virus, those who actually have it, and those who are afraid to come to work and risk getting it, I haven't been able to get my favorite soft drink for nearly a year now.
 
As a last resort--I just discovered I had a "lost" stash of 209 primers--I have enough of them to use them in my muzzleloaders for at least several years.
 
"If you can't get primers, you can't make ammunition."

Beware that the Democrats pick up on that
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They had it all laid out in (IIRC) 1972 when Pat Paulson was doing his Presidential run on the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour.

Paraphrasing now, it has been a while!, when he was talking about gun control, Pat
said 'I not gonna take away your guns, just your ammunition'.

Although the show was in jest, it did strike me that he might have a valid workaround for restrictions.

Been stocking up (or keeping myself in supplies) ever since.

JT
 
"While I also have been thru all those previous shortages and agree with "Stop panicking", I'm afraid the "eventually" will be a long time in coming."

Yes, just like it has taken SEVERAL YEARS for every one to settle out and things to return to normal supply chain.

The early 1980s, the mid 1990s, etc... every one of them took 2 to 4 years for people to settle down, production to come back on line (when caused by production interruptions), and the supply chain to re-establish itself.

Every time I've seen people yelling 'AH MAH GERDS! THIS IS END TIMES! PRIMERS/AMMO/POWDER/WHATEVER WILL NEVER BE AVAILABLE AGAIN! GET USED TO PAYING $50,000 FOR A SINGLE PRIMER!" and so forth and so on.

Quite simply, it doesn't matter what the root cause of the supply problem is, it only matters that it will eventually settle down.

So, once again, people need to stop panicking and get used to the fact that it's going to be kind of tough to get some things for awhile, and prices are going to correspondingly high for awhile.
 
"You would think 9mm, 223 and .45 would be in short supply.

That is not the case, .380 and .38 are critical. That is absurd, in my opinion. Someone is providing 7.62x39, 40 s and w, 12 gauge, 22 LR, 223, .45 and 9mm.

Some others are driving up the price of .380 and .38."

Because ammo manufacturers are concentrating on producing the rounds with the highest demand.

.38 and .380 aren't rounds with the highest demand, so lines producing them have been switched over to... 9mm and .45... you know, the rounds that have the highest demand.


Back in the mid 2000s, when Obama was rattling on about gun control, rounds that I like, like the .32-20, the .44 Special, the .41 Magnum, pretty much disappeared...

Because manufacturers switched their production lines to the ones with the highest sales demand.

You think any manufacturer is different?

Hey, we have a daily demand for 5,000 pickup trucks and only 400 sedans. If we switch sedan production over to pick up trucks we can just meet the demand for pickups. Otherwise, we over produce sedans and wildly underproduce pickups.

You think the auto maker is going to keep churning out sedans that don't sell and not supply the demand for pickups using available production capacity?

That's what ammo manufacturers are doing right now, readjusting their lines.
 
Ironically, this chat started with the "supposed" shortage of primers.

There are really only two sizes of primers. It's not like you have to be an atomic scientist to run the primer line.

I would submit that the "shortage" of .380 and .38 is definitely contrived.

.380 and .38 are in "tremendous" demand. Of the hundreds of different calibers available why is it that two of the top 10 calibers in America are in short supply?

The .380 shortage started before the current shortage. Every gun show I go to I run into folks searching for .380.

I believe it is because the profit margin on .380 and .38 is not high enough for the manufacturers. Just like .22 used to be.

Why would .22 ammo EVER be in short supply? But it was.....when it was .05c a round. Now it's 15c and seems to be everywhere.

Same with .380 and .38. If you find ANY .380 for less than $1.00 a round these days that is considered CHEAP.

These are small pistol primers. But the shortage started before that, and now is just worse.

IMHO, part of the problem is that a lot of folks use .380 and .38 as self defense rounds, and don't tend to shoot as much as us avid devotees of the sport.

Now, with the current climate, a lot of folks are dusting off their pocket pistol autos and revolvers to hone their skills and stock up.

But the shortage of those two calibers started before this current crises.
 
I scored a 1000 count brick of CCI large pistol primers at Scheels All Sports last week for 40.00. No other primers were available. hdbiker
 
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