My post from THR
Russia surely doesn't want a nuclear Iran on it's doorstep, ready to export nuclear material to Chechniya or any of the other Muslim populated former and present territories that surround it. They won't come out and say it blatently because of the trade they have with Iran, (and their desire to see us sweat), but I guarentee there's a lot of mid-night oil being burned in the Kremlin over this issue.
Iran doesn't have weapons sitting on lauch pads ready to go, it may be years before they do. If they wanted to go the dirty bomb route from a pick-up truck, they could have done that years ago.
China has lived with a nuclear N. Korea for years next-door, and while they are not the targets of them, (S. Korea is), they have acted as a restraint to their use. They are also big trading partners with Iran. China, and Russia to a lesser extent are in a major economic development stage and have a lot more to lose than we do in the event a major upheaval in the middle east. The US only gets 10-15% of it's oil from the Gulf. Europe and Japan-East Asia are the major recipients of Gulf oil. If we back off and stand mute, they should, and will do all they can to reign in the Iranians.
As I said before, "talk is cheap" and the Ayatollahs are laughing at the response they are getting from "the great Satan", the US, by throwing out a few caustic remarks. We are falling into their trap.
I think we have too much on our plate over here to get heavily involved in this one. The Israelis are fully capable of taking care of themselves when the time is ready.
For a change, we have the world aligned with us, let them take the lead and the heat. As Winston Churchill (no dove by any means) said "Jaw, Jaw is better than war, war".
Something that gets overlooked because it's well nigh unbelievable is that there is a LOT of good will towards the USA people (not the US gov't)on the Iranian and Arab "street". I know this personally because I am in daily contact with Arabs from all Arab countries and Iranians, literally on the Arab street here in the UAE. They aren't all completely stupid and they realize that America is a great place of freedom and opportunity regardless of who you are, what your family name is and what your background is, which is totally opposite of where they all come from. (If you haven't spent time outside the USA it's difficult to conceive what life is like where you have to measure every word and action as there is no rule of law and no bill of rights, you should thank your lucky stars that you're in the USA, something I NEVER forget).The line at the American Consulate here forms at 5 am for people who want to get American VISAs. The fist shaking, flag burning yahoos that you see on CNN are a tiny part of any middle eastern population. Everyone has a brother, cousin, uncle, aunt in the USA, (" I have a brother in New York, his name is Mohammed, do you know him?" is an oft asked question). It would be foolish to squander this good will. Nobody around here wants to see more nukes in the area, and while they resent Israel's possession of them, they know that Israel is not irresponsible like some of their own governments are. TABING
This just in from the BBC:
Iran crisis a dilemma for China
By Jill McGivering
BBC News
As Washington, now joined by the EU3, presses for punitive international action against Tehran, one of its most difficult tasks will be to win China's support.
The first step is to persuade China to agree to support - or not to block - an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) referral of Iran to the UN Security Council.
China, like Russia, feels it is in an awkward position.
An important development for Beijing will be how Russia decides to react.
Initial reports from Washington, soon after news broke that Iran was resuming work, said that Moscow had privately agreed not to veto referral to the Security Council but it is still unclear if that is true.
Diplomatic preference
If it were, Beijing could find itself diplomatically isolated. That would only increase the pressure on Beijing to follow Moscow's lead.
But Beijing would like to avoid that crisis altogether if it possibly can. Its own focus is firmly on a non-confrontational diplomatic solution to the crisis.
Beijing's initial reaction to news that Iran was breaking its deal with the EU3 was to express its concern, but immediately reaffirm its commitment to multilateral negotiations.
Since then, the diplomatic temperature has increased dramatically but China has refused to change its position.
Officials have repeated the Chinese government's view that the best way forward is to restart the EU3 diplomacy with Iran, despite the fact many in the West are now dismissing it as exhausted.
China's work behind the scenes seems to be focussed on trying to keep the diplomacy alive.
Energy ties
China's most obvious interest is energy.
Three years ago, when Iran was already supplying 13 per cent of China's oil needs, the two governments signed a major deal which included Chinese development of Iranian oil fields.
It is a source of supply of growing importance for China - one it doesn't want disrupted by politics.
China also has a deeply-engrained reluctance to takes sides with the US against a fellow non-Western nation.
Much of its current energy-driven diplomacy is on forging political alliances which exclude the West and are faithful to Chinese principles of non-interference in each other's internal affairs.
But Beijing is also keen not to cause fresh tensions in its relationship with Washington.
Compliance on Iran may be seen by Washington as an important test of its sincerity.
'Force for peace'
The Bush administration is pressing China hard to be a more engaged and responsible player on the international stage as it emerges as an increasingly dominant world power.
Support on North Korea and Iran are exactly what it has in mind, a way of proving to Washington that China is, as it claims, a force for peace in the world and can be trusted at a time of crisis.
China has shown itself willing to play an active role as long as the focus in both cases is on peaceful diplomacy but it's unclear whether China would be prepared to endorse US-led punitive action which could be detrimental to its own interest.
Chinese willingness to take sides with the US against a friend and energy supplier like Iran could alarm some of its other suppliers, from Sudan to Burma.
All of this will be high on the agenda of Hu Jintao's forthcoming visit to Washington, expected in April.
For China, they are impossible choices. As Beijing scours the world for oil and gas, its strategy is to keep politics and energy as separate as possible, however impossible a task that is starting to look.