My wife is a certified laboratory assistant (CLA), works at a local hospital, handles infectious materials and other bio-agents all day, every day. We have had this discussion. This is my understanding of our discussions...
Currently, the "bird Flu" is transmitted by birds to other birds. Occasionally it jumps cross species, and that species may become infected. What the fear among health professionals is that when (not if) the virus mutates, it may mutate so as to affect human to human transmission. Should that happen, then we will have a problem.
Currently, the standard strategem of infecting chicken eggs to induce the embryo to produce anti-bodies has failed, as the infected embryo has died before production of anti-bodies has started. No anti-bodies, no inoculating agent. If such a program begins yielding results, they will be only a little helpful should the strain mutate across species. A new strain of anti-bodies would have to be produced to be more effective.
Currently, this virus appears to have a 40% to 60% infection rate. The fatality rate appears to be 20% to 40%. A cross species mutation may not stay the same. It could be worse or not as infectious/fatal.
Upland bird (not the source, but a problematic carrier) and waterfowl (carrier) season is coming right up. This is the height of human-bird interaction, and will be the time that the medical profession will be most watchful. Containment via quarantine, would be haphazard at best, considering the mobility of our modern society.
Proper hygiene is of course the first (last and best) step. Consider however, how much of our supplies are transshipped from place to place - trucker gets infected at plant and infects everyone he contacts along the way to the wharehouse - again from there to the store. Consider the implications of engaging such a quarantine. Best case scenario is that contagion will have spread nationwide before first case incidents begin to be reported. Worst case is worldwide contagion within the 3 to 7 day period before onset of verifiable symptoms - now add 4-7 days more for culturation and verification, depending upon local medical capabilities.
The vehicle of an epidemic transmuting to a pandemic is the mobility of the society that is infected. We live in a time of very high mobility. Short of stopping all transportation worldwide, there is no way to contain such an outbreak (this assumes the mutated strain is as virulent as suspected). The medical professionals involved in Disease Control know this. They don't worry about it (at least not like people here are doing), as it is beyond the realm of their control. The best that can be done is after action control and suppression as the contagion spreads.
Best advice? Utilize proper hygiene and stop worrying. If it happens, it happens and worrying about what you cannot control does nothing productive. On the contrary, such worry (stress) often weakens the immune system and makes one more vulnerable to infectious attack.
Currently, the "bird Flu" is transmitted by birds to other birds. Occasionally it jumps cross species, and that species may become infected. What the fear among health professionals is that when (not if) the virus mutates, it may mutate so as to affect human to human transmission. Should that happen, then we will have a problem.
Currently, the standard strategem of infecting chicken eggs to induce the embryo to produce anti-bodies has failed, as the infected embryo has died before production of anti-bodies has started. No anti-bodies, no inoculating agent. If such a program begins yielding results, they will be only a little helpful should the strain mutate across species. A new strain of anti-bodies would have to be produced to be more effective.
Currently, this virus appears to have a 40% to 60% infection rate. The fatality rate appears to be 20% to 40%. A cross species mutation may not stay the same. It could be worse or not as infectious/fatal.
Upland bird (not the source, but a problematic carrier) and waterfowl (carrier) season is coming right up. This is the height of human-bird interaction, and will be the time that the medical profession will be most watchful. Containment via quarantine, would be haphazard at best, considering the mobility of our modern society.
Proper hygiene is of course the first (last and best) step. Consider however, how much of our supplies are transshipped from place to place - trucker gets infected at plant and infects everyone he contacts along the way to the wharehouse - again from there to the store. Consider the implications of engaging such a quarantine. Best case scenario is that contagion will have spread nationwide before first case incidents begin to be reported. Worst case is worldwide contagion within the 3 to 7 day period before onset of verifiable symptoms - now add 4-7 days more for culturation and verification, depending upon local medical capabilities.
The vehicle of an epidemic transmuting to a pandemic is the mobility of the society that is infected. We live in a time of very high mobility. Short of stopping all transportation worldwide, there is no way to contain such an outbreak (this assumes the mutated strain is as virulent as suspected). The medical professionals involved in Disease Control know this. They don't worry about it (at least not like people here are doing), as it is beyond the realm of their control. The best that can be done is after action control and suppression as the contagion spreads.
Best advice? Utilize proper hygiene and stop worrying. If it happens, it happens and worrying about what you cannot control does nothing productive. On the contrary, such worry (stress) often weakens the immune system and makes one more vulnerable to infectious attack.