Ron Paul won the Nevada GOP presidential straw poll

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xd9fan

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(opps its not the Nevada GOP its the Conservative Leadership Conference which was held in Nevada)

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
SPARKS, Nev. – Ron Paul won the GOP presidential straw poll conducted by organizers at the Conservative Leadership Conference held at the Nugget Casino this weekend “by a large margin,” according to an organizer.

Paul won with 33 percent, Romney came in second with 16 percent and Duncan Hunter was just behind with 15 percent. "Undecided" was fourth with 11 percent, and Thompson and Giuliani were next and ahead of the rest of the pack -- all in single digits. Raw numbers haven't been provided, but there were approximately 430 registrants at the opening of the conference.

Although many of the Republican presidential teams had surrogates representing them at the conference, Mitt Romney and Duncan Hunter were the only candidates to speak at the conference, and the victor himself was not there.

Libertarian sentiment dominated the conference, and a number of attendees expressed disappointment with the Republican Party for not catering to many of their views. Several speakers explained that they were looking to move on, echoing much of the discontent that came out of the meeting of the Council for National Policy in Salt Lake City late last month.

In fact, American Target Advertising Chairman Richard Viguerie, who said he was part of the strategic meetings in Salt Lake City, said Thursday night that even though he has agreed not to support Giuliani, Thompson or McCain, he’s still not close to declaring support for Romney or any other lower tier candidates because they are still actively and seriously courting conservatives. “Why would we stop the flow of flowers and candy?” he said.

Almost on cue, Romney said during his speech the next day to the group, “I’m from the Republican wing of the Republican Party,” eliciting a negative response from some rival campaigns and the Democratic National Committee. The DNC jumped and noted that he stole Chairman Howard Dean’s line from the previous election when he told voters he was “from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” before losing to John Kerry.

Out of the malaise over the conference came several questions targeted to Romney urging him to explain why he could be the candidate who would change the party’s direction. In particular, vastright founder Joseph Bentzel, whose start-up Web company with slogan “Powering Digital Conspiracy” has yet to launch, asked Romney at a town hall how the party can be re-brand, reform, refocus and re-launch after what he called is a phase of “pre-emptive defeatism” for the GOP. Romney gave a four-part answer, starting with his pitch, “Well, I think it helps to have a new face.”

Romney went on to sound another theme of his: optimism. He called the Democrats pessimists and said his optimism could go a long way for the Republicans, and he moved onto a point similar to his first, that the country ought to be led by someone who hasn’t spent an entire lifetime in politics. And he ended with a line that played well before the crowd of Reaganites, implying that his energy and passion could echo that of Ronald Reagan’s.
 
Heck, he won 5 of the 6 leading up to that one. That wasn't even the only straw poll he won that day. I wonder what makes that particular straw poll newsworthy. Not that I'm complainin' mind you :D....

Conservative Leadership Conference, Reno, Nevada 10/13/2007 1 33.0%
Jefferson County, Alabama Straw Poll 10/13/2007 1 57.8%
Washington State Republican Party Fall Dinner Straw Poll 10/11/2007 4 12.2%
Tulsa State Fair, Oklahoma 10/07/2007 1 41.5%
Oregon Straw Poll- Portland, Oregon 10/06/2007 1 67.0%
Gwinnett County GOP, Atlanta, Georgia 9/30/2007 1 36.2%
CWA New Jersey GOP Straw Poll 9/29/2007 1 77.0%
South Sound Ronald Reagan Republican Club 9/26/2007 1 35.0%
Mackinac Island - Michigan Republican Leadership Conference 9/23/2007 3 10.8%
Oklahoma County GOP Straw Poll 9/23/2007 3 11.0%
Palmetto Family Council Straw Poll 9/20/2007 2 33.0%
Values Voters Presidential Debate Poll 9/17/2007 2 13.0%
Manchester, NH Straw Poll 9/16/2007 1 65.0%
South Dakota Straw Poll 9/03/2007 6 8.0%
Maryland Straw Poll 9/03/2007 1 27.3%
Texas Straw Poll 9/01/2007 3 16.7%
Allegheny County, Pennsylvania 8/26/2007 1 45.2%
DeKalb County, Georgia Straw Poll 8/25/2007 1 24.0%
HRCC (Minnesota) 8/22/2007 3 16.0%
Ronald Reagan Club (Washington) 8/21/2007 1 28.0%
West Alabama 8/18/2007 1 81.2%
Strafford County, NH 8/18/2007 1 72.2%
West Lafayette, Indiana 8/18/2007 4 11.7%
Illinois State Fair 8/17/2007 3 18.9%
Students for Life of America 8/16/2007 4 9.0%
Western Montana Fair 8/15/2007 6 4.0%
Gaston County, NC 8/14/2007 1 36.6%
Ames, Iowa 8/11/2007 5 9.1%
National Federation of Republican Assemblies (NFRA), St. Louis, MO 8/06/2007 3 14.0%
FreedomWorks Straw Poll 8/03/2007 1 56.0%
Georgetown County, SC 7/28/2007 2 17.9%
New Hampshire Taxpayers 7/07/2007 1 65.3%
Cobb County, GA 7/04/2007 2 17.0%
California Republican Assembly 7/01/2007 4 12.0%
National Taxpayers Union 6/16/2007 2 16.7%
Utah GOP convention 6/08/2007 2 5.4%

Coming soon... Washington State GOP, Oklahoma State GOP, Ohio State GOP

Ron Paul's Head-to-Head Records (Win-Lose-Tie):
Ron Paul v. Rudy Giuliani 31-5-0
Ron Paul v. Mitt Romney 24-12-0
Ron Paul v. Fred Thompson 21-14-0
Ron Paul v. John McCain 32-3-0
Ron Paul v. Mike Huckabee 30-4-1
Ron Paul v. Sam Brownback 32-2-1
Ron Paul v. Tom Tancredo 33-1-0
Ron Paul v. Duncan Hunter 32-2-0
 
It's funny that the so-called front runners can't even win a straw poll. I have a feeling that Ron Paul might end up surprising some people at primary time...

In 2004 there were about 100,000 who showed up at the Iowa Caucus'. Iowa has a population of about 3,000,000. Do you realize what that means? It means that only 3 percent of Iowa votes in them. All the people saying that he can't win because of what the media tells us the polls say... think about that for a second.

Edit: 3.. not 0.03
 
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Ron Paul appears to finish in the top 1 or 2 in every kind of poll out there, even in other indicators like monies raised. Well, except for one kind of poll: the "legitimate" national polls which only poll people who have landlines.

According to a CDC report, in 2004 (IIRC) nearly 13% of households were totally wireless - no landline whatsoever. Three years hence and that number has to be much greater by now.

Makes me wonder if those "legitimate" national polls are obsolete? I think they need to change their paradigm.
 
Why can he win straw polls and not national ones? Simple. Look at who gets to vote in straw polls and you will find your answer.

The public simply thinks Ron Paul is a tin foil kook.... and he comes off like one to them... They are also scared of the cut and run tactic he proposes. If he gets to pull out like he wants, just save time and cross our the name Iraq on the map and write in New Afghanistan.

While the idea of not getting involved in international affairs is a good idea, it is a bad idea to get out when you are already in it.... Out of the frying pan so to speak.

It's real hard to get clean once you are already covered in tar.... and we are wearing many many coats of tar already.
 
While the idea of not getting involved in international affairs is a good idea, it is a bad idea to get out when you are already in it.... Out of the frying pan so to speak.

With that thinking we would still be in Vietnam. Iraq was a mistake, once
decided to go in destroy everything military and withdraw otherwise stay
home that is the way to win.
 
Why can he win straw polls and not national ones? Simple. Look at who gets to vote in straw polls and you will find your answer.

Yup. The people who are actually motivated to participate. Which, not coincidentally, is the exact same people who will be voting in the primaries.
 
I was discussing being the "best" with my 13 year old son the other day. He said, "if you make the category small enough everyone is "best" at something. This is the Ron Paul method of polling, make the category small enough and Paul will win every time. Alas even the republican primary won't allow them to reduce the category of voters enough to allow a Paul victory. 1-3% at best would be my guess, based on credible poll numbers at this point.
 
Libertarian sentiment dominated the conference, and a number of attendees expressed disappointment with the Republican Party for not catering to many of their views.

It doesn't seem that winning this one counted for much, because Paul needs to win over the conservative Republican base, not the libertarians. If Paul can't convince the base, he won't be the nominee, regardless of the support from the so-called disappointed libertarians.
 
Fremmer,
Take a look up-thread. It's not like this is the only straw poll he's won.

Justme,
He said, "if you make the category small enough everyone is "best" at something. This is the Ron Paul method of polling...
Or one could argue that this is the phone poll way of polling. They regularly narrow the field of choices, conduct their polling among whatever they define as "likely voters", and exclude those who don't have land lines.
A straw poll, OTOH, is open to any interested party who resides in a given district. Only one of these approaches makes the category smaller in a way that skews the results. Which type is more likely to predict the primary?
Here's what I see coming:
When the primaries roll around, they will be conducted abnormally early during a cycle when the Republican base is depressed and splintered. The Evangelicals are threatening to go third party as we speak.
The political landscape has already created a situation wherein "the category" (as you refer to it) is shrinking. Who's going to show up at the polls? I guarantee you Paul's people will be there. They'll be coming from all the places that your "reliable" polls dismiss as unlikely.
 
You know- I support Ron Paul and have sent him almost the maximum donation I can make in the primary, as well as sending him money through most of his congressional campaigns since 1994, but I wish he'd quit letting others define him and he'd step up and define himself as something other than "the anti-war Republican".

I was surprised at the second debate that the moderators queried Rudy Guilliani and John McCain and Mitt Romney about abortion, but failed to query the only OB/GYN on the stage about his views.

In my opinion, the manner in which the questions are presented are there to assist front runners and hurt all others. I would think that religious and personal views aside, if you have an OB, you might want his take on abortion, but then- that might make other Republican voters who don't know about his position support Ron Paul. Possibly even James Dobson's support from the Christian right, because like it or not, Focus on the Family is the 800 lb gorrilla in the Republican Party/Right Wing.

I think most of the debates so far have been utter B.S.
Because Ron Paul is extreme on the war (pro-constitution) and extreme on the 2nd Amendment (pro-constitution), they will make him out to be just a "tinfoil loon" rather than point out a lengthy and unchanging, very conservative politician since 1976.

Ron needs to get out there on abortion and guns and not let others define him. He needs to start referring to his record more and that of his opponents.

Oh- and I am part of the 13% of households who is totally wireless so my views are not likely to be learned from polls.
 
I believe that Ron Paul has more of a chance everyday. If he does not get the nominations I will campaign for anybody but another traditional Republican. They have betrayed us and the country.
 
If they're only polling people with landlines in the national polls, then they're highly skewing the results to the dumber end of the population spectrum, because land lines are a ripoff with modern cell phones and accessories (except Vonage).

I too think Ron Paul will surprise nearly everyone and win.
 
Personally I think modern cell phone plans are the real ripoffs. I use a tracfone, but then I don't spend hours a day annoying everyone by talking on my cell phone in public.

Scientific polls consider demographics. They look for a certain demographic first and then figure out how to get that groups opinion. The fact that a large percentage of certain young college student demographics don't have land lines does not mean that none of them have land lines. Within the college student demographic are more Ron Paul supporters more likely not to have a land line than are those from that very same demographic who support another candidate?
 
Its super duper wonderful that Paul can win the Manny Moe and Jack straw poll. However heres a big problem...

Texas Straw Poll 9/01/2007 3 16.7%


If the man can't even win his own state, and he's failed in his state before al la his senate run, how in the world can any honest person think he's viable for a national election.

As some others have said before, coming in first sounds great. However when there are only 2 people in the race its not such a big deal anymore.

Most of these "polls" are little pissant deals in which none (not even Paul) of the candidates show up. They don't matter and are not significant.

Regardless of how much some people here opine, national polls by national organizations are still the MOST ACCURATE predictors of elections. They arent always right, or precise, but they are the best indicators out there.

Paul is barely edging above the margin of error in every national poll. He was done before he even started.




Of course I could be wrong. Many of you here think I am. So to prove me wrong, heres my offer. I have $100 that says Paul won't win the nomination. If he does, on top of the $100 I lose to you, I'll donate $150 to his campaign for the general election and vote for him to boot.


I've offered this bet on at least 6 boards. Not a single Paul supporter has had the gumption to back their candidate and take it. I can only assume you folks really know your candidate is destined to lose. If he's going to win why not win $100 and help him out in the process. If he's not going to win, man up and say it instead of coming up with lame excuses about "I don't bet" or "I don't have the money" or things like that.
 
I'll take your bet on one condition: if I lose you must use the money for something gun related. :D Might as well keep it in the "family", yes? :p
 
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