Ron Paul surges (16%) in Pennsylvania primary!

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hammer4nc

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Is this the unintended consequence of "Operation Chaos"?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20080423/cm_thenation/45314454

McCain Loses 27% of Pennsylvania Vote

Tue Apr 22, 11:27 PM ET

The Nation -- Yes, of course, John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee for president.

But don't think that means that grassroots Republicans -- especially movement conservatives who have never really trusted the guy -- are united in their support for the senator from Arizona.

Pennsylvania had a Republican primary on Tuesday.

It certainly did not get the attention that was afforded to the Democratic contest.

But McCain had opponents on the ballot -- Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the libertarian, anti-war candidate who is still sort of campaigning, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who has folded his prayer tent. And McCain's foes won a lot of voters.

And more than 800,000 Pennsylvanians took Republican ballots. That's only about a third as many as voted in the Democratic primary, but its still a significant GOP turnout.

And a significant portion of that GOP turnout rejected the man who will carry the Republican banner in November.

McCain finished with an uninspiring 73 percent of the vote Tuesday.

Paul got 16 percent.

Huckabee's non-candidacy took 11 percent.

When all the Republican votes were counted, more than 200,000 ended up in the columns of what can best be described as the Anybody-but-McCain candidates.

Official state results: http://www.electionreturns.state.pa...n.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
 
an uninspiring 73 percent
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I appreciate the sentiment, I would rather have RP as well, but hang it up its over. 55% or more of the vote is considered a landslide. For better or worse were going to get McCain.
 
First rule of statistics: you can make them say anything you want, while still telling the truth.

When all the Republican votes were counted, more than 200,000 ended up in the columns of what can best be described as the Anybody-but-McCain candidates.
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Gasp! Oh wait, let me do the math. Carry the one, and -

  • More than 585,000 voters would rather have McCain over Ron Paul
  • Voters for McCain outnumbered Ron Paul followers by a ratio almost 5 to 1.
When all the Republican votes were counted, more than 675,000 ended up in the columns of what can best be described as the Anybody-but-Ron-Paul candidates.

The numbers game... thanks for playing.
 
Yeah, whatever, Apple; you're just jealous that the McCain campaign doesn't have a blimp; your anti-blimp bias is well-known around here. :mad:

By the way, is the blimp still floating around, or has it been deflated, rolled up, and stuffed in the corner of a room in somebody's parent's basement?!? :eek: :D
 
Symbolic Ron Paul vote

I see the vote for Ron Paul as a very symbolic action by those voters. McCain has the Republican nomination. I doubt anyone can put forth a logical set of circumstances that would precludes his getting the nomination.

Those who took the time and effort to go participate in a primary where the nomination is clandestined are making a statement of objection to McCain when they voted for Ron Paul. 55% might be a mandate in some election. But its hardly a mandate when you are in reality the only one who can get the nomination. 23% voting for Ron Paul is basicly a 1 out of 4 Republicans symbolizing their disapproval of McCain. It might not hold true that those who voted for McCain will vote for the opposition in November. However, some probably will as a symbolic vote to the party leaders of the disapproval of the parties direction and selections.
 
Only a Paul supporter could call 73% of the vote uninspiring.

I like my koolaid grape flavored thank you.

55% might be a mandate in some election. But its hardly a mandate when you are in reality the only one who can get the nomination. 23% voting for Ron Paul is basicly a 1 out of 4 Republicans symbolizing their disapproval of McCain.
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I'm confused. McCain had 73% of the vote, not 55%. Paul only beat someone who dropped out of the race months ago by 5% points. If this is symbolic of anything, its the well deserved obscurity that his campaign has finally achieved.
 
55%

was in reference to the % considered to be a mandate. Anything over just increases the mandate. Nate45 had made a reference to anything over 55% is a mandate.

Stage I agree RP campaign is an obscure issue. But a whole lot of folks voted for him when they already knew he had no chance of winning nationally. Should the vote for RP not be considered as votes against McCain at this point in the primary cycle?
 
Who's Ron Paul?...o the guy that thinks that Queen Elizabeth is a Space Alien in league with the Jews to enslave the world? Thats Ron Paul? or am I confusing him with some other nut...:D Too bad he is not in Canada, they would bring human rights com plaints against him :p

I thought he was history already....

WildthatmustbesomestrongkoolaidAlaska TM
 
STAGE 2 said:
Paul only beat someone who dropped out of the race months ago by 5% points.
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Well... no. You're simultaneously considering and not considering McCain.

Mike Huckabee: 91,382 votes
Guy who apparently has a blimp: 128,431 votes

Between these two, Blimp guy beats Huckabee by 58.4% to 41.6%, or a margin of nearly 17%, not 5.

However, given McCain's 586,904 votes, McCain beats Blimp Guy by a margin of over 64%! (with percentages at ~82% and ~18%)

A 64% margin of victory! In football terms, it's like the Giants beating the Pats 41-9! Spread? What spread?

Combined with the voters who participated in the Democratic primary (3.1+ million voters total), 95.9% of Pennsylvania primary voters would vote for anyone besides Ron Paul.

Should the vote for RP not be considered as votes against McCain at this point in the primary cycle?
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Not necessarily, it's just good for us to catch the spin - especially if it's as egregious as the OP article. In terms of the RP votes, they are essentially insignificant as far as politicking goes. Just look at all the numbers I presented above. Each and every stat is factually and mathematically true; what concerns everyone is how I presented the numbers.
 
I may well be the biggest Paul supporter on this forum, but "surging"?? C'mon now...
There is much good that has come from this campaign but let's not pretend that the Republican nomination is in the offing.

However....
This does indicate that a chunk of the Republican base are willing to cast their votes as protests against their presumptive nominee. This doesn't bode well for McCain, but let's see how much Obama and Clinton can drag each other down.
 
ron pauls doing good because who would actually go vote for mccain, seeing hes the nominee already? ron paul should just drop out we dont need a perot effect to help get another cli ton in
 
The SURGE continues!!!

Ron Paul Beats Barack Obama!!! (In Idaho)

Imagine what would have happened without a media blackout of his campaign..

::::::::

UNITED STATES PRESIDENT
DEM Hillary Clinton 16,119 38%
DEM Keith Russell Judd 734 2%
DEM Barack Obama 23,988 56%
DEM None of the names shown 2,041 5%

REP John McCain 87,367 70%
REP Ron Paul 29,749 24%
REP None of the names shown 7,781 6%

Interesting. Very interesting.

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=7536


Another article:

Paul has best showing yet, in Idaho

ohn McCain has the Republican nomination wrapped up, but Ron Paul isn't going anywhere.

In fact, in Tuesday's little-noticed Republican primary in Idaho, the iconoclastic Texas congressman had his best showing so far, grabbing 24 percent of the vote, nearly 30,000 votes in all.

McCain won with 70 percent, while the other 6 percent went to uncommitted.

Paul's showing came despite making only one campaign stop in the state. "Dr. Paul’s grassroots supporters in Idaho and across the country are doing a tremendous job spreading our message, winning votes and laying a strong foundation for the future," campaign spokesman Jesse Benton said in a statement.

Paul's supporters have been making waves in state GOP conventions, hoping to secure a speaking role for him, plus a say on the party platform, at the national convention in September.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/paul_has_best_s.html

Comment: On, to the convention! Haters, please try to make some constructive comments, thanks.
 
McCain, the presumptive nominee of the republican party does not get 30% of the vote in Idaho. None of the above even got 6% among Republicans in Idaho.

The writing is on the wall in November. The GOP should have backed a conservative instead of McCain.
 
Let's suppose for the sake of the argument that McCain is the choice of "generic, mainstream Republicans." People that aren't all that involved with politics year round. But they vote in the Presidential elections. Those people do turn out and vote when they perceive the stakes to be high. But I find myself wondering how many of them really bothered in this case? If you generally supported McCain and your primary was tomorrow, would you bother going to vote? What if you had to go pick up the kids and pick up groceries and then to soccer practice, etc? You make time when it is close. When it is over and your vote is basically symbolic, you may not turn out.

But if you are somebody who really doesn't like McCain, you are MORE likely to turn out. You are all highly motivated to show that some people don't like him.

So the GOP primaries at this point are some weird combination where the generic middle doesn't care much about going to vote but fringes are even more excited about doing it.

My point is that these sorts of primary results tell us VERY little about how broad (or narrow) McCain's support really is.

Gregg
 
Haters, please try to make some constructive comments, thanks.
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Ok, will do, but this...

By the way, is the blimp still floating around, or has it been deflated, rolled up, and stuffed in the corner of a room in somebody's parent's basement?!?
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made me fall out of my chair laughing...ROFLMAO
 
The writing is on the wall in November. The GOP should have backed a conservative instead of McCain.
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You're wrong buddy!

McCain has two very large strikes against him right now.

1) He is associated with President Bush and, through him, through Iraq war. The Democrats will do everything in their power to tie McCain to Bush and his low approval numbers.

2) Worse yet is the economy. Presidents don't have much to do with whether an economy is good or bad but they tend to get the credit or the blame. I'm constantly hearing about the strong economy of the 1990's and how that shows what a good President Clinton was. Ignore the 12 years straight of Republican policies before that. Ignore the fact that Clinton only had two years of Democratically controlled Congress and had the GOP in both houses for the next six. Makes no more sense than blaming Bush for our current economy but that's what will happen come election day.

Both of those are very difficult to overcome. I actually think #2 is the most significant. If Americans walk into the polls in November with very low consumer confidence numbers, the incumbent party is in trouble. It plays right into Obama and his calls for change.

But McCain not conservative? That's an old song. No matter how many times you say it, it still won't match up with the facts.

The long time respected conservative organization to ask about this stuff is The American Conservative Union. They rank everybody in Congress. Go look for yourself. 100 would be a perfect score. Like my Senator, Dr. Coburn. But look at McCain's score. (OK, he's really _only_ 98.00!)

http://www.acuratings.org/2007all.htm#AZ

http://www.conservative.org/

He's been a Senator for 25 years. His lifetime score is 82.16. He took some positions in 2006 that conservatives didn't like and his score went down to 60. In 2007 his score was 80. If you have lifetime scores like that, it is slightly disingenuous to claim he isn't a conservative!!

Same rankings page shows Hillary at 7.71 and Obama at 7.67 !!

If you want to argue they aren't conservative..... I'll give you that one.

Gregg
 
tulsamal, I think the opposite. Mccain has already got the nomination. The fact that 30% of the republican voters turned out to vote against him is a striking number. The average conservative person who pays attention to words and deeds does not like Mccain. Sure, many of them will vote for him, but many of them will not.
 
I know I am just a blind sheeple when it comes to elections, but if RP garnered 24% in Idaho, how many delegates did he get? At the rate he is going, it will be 2012 before he will have 50% or more of support for the 2008 election. Face it, he's done, nothing came off his run but an increase in posts in the L&P section of TFL.
 
Yeah, Paul's not going to get the nomination. It's not, however, a really good sign for McCain that this many Republicans dislike him enough to go to the trouble to vote against him in a primary after he's already cinched it.

He's going to have a hard enough time winning this fall without a significant minority of Republicans disliking him this much. He can't really afford to do without many of the shrinking number of actual Republican voters out there.
 
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