Rice To The Rescue?

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In that link it shows that Obama has 194 electoral votes pretty much locked up. He would need to capture 22% of the remaining electoral votes to hit 270. On the other hand, McCain is pretty sure of 95 at this time. To reach 270, he would have to win almost forty percent of the other electoral votes. In other words, he has to win those at a near two to one ratio.

It can happen. But don't count on it. Read the article that goes along with poll on that link. Many republican insiders are unhappy with McCain's campaign on this point.

Luke:
Polls showing a national preference are worthless. It is the electoral vote that counts, just ask Gore.
 
In that link it shows that Obama has 194 electoral votes pretty much locked up.
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As did Kerry and Gore before him. How did that turn out for them?

On the other hand, McCain is pretty sure of 95 at this time
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Only because the people at the linked electoral map are mildly deluded. They have Texas and many other solid GOP states listed as "weak" GOP despite the fact that Texas hasn't gone to a Dem candidate in decades and Obama is currently almost double-digits behind McCain there.

Obama is an incredibly weak candidate from a factual standpoint. Hell, he started his career as a state senator in 1996 and wasn't elected to national office until 2004. For that matter, the last Senator to win the office of President was Kennedy in 1960 - not exactly a rousing recommendation.

McCain hasn't even opened fire on him yet and is already even with him the polls. Not exactly a challenge...
 
Another Helper?

Maybe old Nader could be our God send!

I want you all to know that I am not a fan of Obama. I am just making comments about the election itself. I have always been fascinated by the way we elect our commander-in-chief. I am wishing and hoping that the republican candidate has some spark in him. I just haven't seen it.

I guess its the old argument of substance versus style. I do know which one should be more important, I also which actually is. Lincoln couldn't be elected president in this day and age. Heck, he wouldn't even get the nomination.
 
McCain is pacing himself. A good runner know all about pacing.
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At the rate he's pacing himself I'd say he'll be ready to shift into high gear just in time for November 2010. To bad the election is in November 2008. He better wake up soon.
 
Eh... no real reason for McCain to get rough at this point. He has several months left and both candidates are still making nice for the public. He is even in the polls without making any effort so no real points to be gained now by wearing the public out with an angry campaign season that all voters say they are tired of (but that works very effectively all the same).
 
I have become very suspicious of polls and news reports about polls.

roy reali cited a PA poll reported by US Election Polls showing Obama with a double digit lead over McCain. The source of that poll was Quinnipiac University, which has been running a polling project in FL, OH, and PA essentially since the last election. Strangely, in all three states and over time, the Quinnipiac polls are generally substantially more favorable to Obama/Democrats than polls conducted by nationally recognized polling organizations. Coincidence or propaganda?
 
Boy am I enthusiastic about the elections... Wow look at our main candidates. Guess that they are representitive of the mediocrity of modern national politics and either one will get you what you deserve. No great statesmen left and if there were one, the public/media would despise them for being standup about something. Well John might be in for a suprise. The media wanted him to be the Repl. candidate for years. That must be because they have a trap or something to spring on him and have it all figured out. Well I guess I can get along until someone really good gets a chance. Go ahead and fight over which flavor of Kool Aid you prefer. :mad:
 
Obama will loose for the same reason the cost Gore and Kerry the the election. He'll try to play both sides of the gun issue and loose just like the two formentioned former candiates. The NRA opinons aside there are more gun owners in this country then even us her at TFL can estimate. And they often (but not always) vote accordingly. Not mention the fact that Obama is disliked by at least half of the DFL. Having a few good friends who are party voters it would seem from talking to them the Hillary has become the "Ron Paul" of the DFL. In that most of siad friends are planning on writting in Hillary. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in November given that both parties are split. My quess is that McCain will win. He is the one who will come across as being the most moderate(as opposed to the extreme that Obama is) The general public usualy does not like extremes be them right or left. Whoever can best fit the description of a "middle of the road" usualy wins
 
Rice would be the coffin in the nail. All it would take is showing the clip "bin Laden determined to attack inside the United States."

Plus I am worried about her calling Russia the Soviet Union by mistake. Sure she is a clever woman, but she's a tad too self arrogant and far too tied to the current administration that she just kill any election chance.
 
When dealing with polls, a little skepticism is justified. You will drive yourself nuts reacting to each poll you view. In another life I wrote and conducted polls. I can assure you there exists a lot of ways the results can be skewed both in the run up to the poll and in the interpretation of the results. A little cynicism will go a low ways in maintaining equilibrium.

Here are a few interesting pieces on how to interpret a poll:

Twenty Questions a Journalist should ask about a poll
http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/4

Who sponsors polls?
http://www.ala.org/ala/acrl/acrlpubs/crlnews/backissues2006/october06/opinionpoll.cfm

How can polls be so wrong?
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/01112008/polls.html

Egghead discussion on polling
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/jacob_eisenstein_using_kalman.php

Political polling sources
http://www.votesmart.org/resource_political_resources.php?category=12

There is nothing about polling that is cut and dried.
 
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