Rice To The Rescue?

R

roy reali

New member
I have spent the last couple of days searching the internet. The target of my search has been presidential polls. More specifically, state polls comparing Obama and McCain.

I know that polls are just polls. I also realize that many things can change from now until November. However, there is only one conclusion I can reach at this point in time. McCain is in trouble. He needs to do something big to revitalize his campaign. One way would to pick a mind-blowing VP. I can think of one person for that.

That person is Condoleeza Rice. She could bring the spark his campaign needs. The media would have to move some of their focus to him and her.
Would having Rice on the ticket guarantee a GOP win? Probably not. However, unless something changes drastically with the McCain campaign, he certainly is assured a defeat in November.
 
I don't know which polls you’re looking at, but most reputable ones show a statistical dead heat between McCain and Obama, with McCain the probable winner based on the results in Florida, Ohio, the Southern States, etc.

McCain’s big problems seem to be things like a lack of enthusiasm for his campaign amongst conservatives and/or conservative evangelicals, and the Barr campaign.

Picking Rice might help with conservatives but won't bring in many Black voters.

Given McCain's mindset, I'd expect him to pick Joe Lieberman before picking Rice. McCain is all about appealing to crossover left-central undecided voters: i.e., the Schwarzenegger voters, and not conservatives unfortunately.
 
Don't worry. McCain's gonna have a cakewalk. Go back to sleep.
/ sarcasm off
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Got anything to back that opinion up?

...crickets chirping.....

Didn't think so (as usual).

Thanks for that enlightening and informative contribution to the topic (as usual) :D

Now...where's that ignore button...
 
Election Reminder

A general poll in a presidential election is useless. It is the electoral college that decides the winner. By my calculations, using state by state polls, Obama is going to pick up almost 350 electoral votes. That is a comfortable margain over the 270 needed to win.

I think Rice might be his one and only hope.
 
That person is Condoleeza Rice. She could bring the spark his campaign needs. The media would have to move some of their focus to him and her.
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I think Rice would be the death toll for his campaign. He is trying to distance himself from Bush and bringing in a key supporter and member of the Bush admin would certainly seem to indicate to those on the fence that McCain is indeed running for Bush's third term.
 
Why again would she make a good president?

If there has been anyone in this administration that has done NOTHING note worthy it's her. She has never accomplished anything on her own, only the bidding of W.

I said president, because that's what you have to say when picking a VP.. Do you really want her to run this country?
 
I think Rice would be the death toll for his campaign. He is trying to distance himself from Bush and bringing in a key supporter and member of the Bush admin would certainly seem to indicate to those on the fence that McCain is indeed running for Bush's third term.
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I have to agree for exactly those reasons. Condy Rice is an amazing person but McCain doesn't need any more Bush people on his team. And Rice is directly blamed by many of the middle of the road voters for decisions they don't like in the Middle East.

I think McCain would do far better to pick the female governor of Alaska! She passes what I think of as my Al Gore test. Remember when Gore was running in 2000 and he couldn't even win his home state of Tennessee? That told me all I needed to know. The people who really know you the best live in your home state. If even they won't vote for you, the rest of the country should pay attention. Governor Palin has an approval rating of 85 to 90 percent. The highest in the country. Hard to beat that!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin

She would help McCain with the West. She would reassure those who think McCain is too old. And, being a woman, she just might steal away some of those Hillary supporters who are still angry at Obama!

Gregg
 
I think McCain would do far better to pick the female governor of Alaska!
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That might actually help him and at the very least it would make a nice distinct contrast between her and whatever leftist donk Obama picks.

McCain’s big problems seem to be things like a lack of enthusiasm for his campaign amongst conservatives and/or conservative evangelicals, and the Barr campaign.
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Oh thats no problem I mean after all conservatives and libertarians are only the base of the party.:)
 
By my calculations, using state by state polls, Obama is going to pick up almost 350 electoral votes.
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If your calculations show Obama winning 350 electoral votes then your calculations are seriously hosed.

To do that Obama would have to win every state Kerry picked up AND add several big states. As it is Obama will be lucky to hold onto PA.
 
re:bartholomew roberts

Most polls show Obama with a double digit lead in Pennsylvania. It is early and many thing can happen from now till November. However, my sinking feeling is that McCain is going to end up feeling like Brady did in the Super Bowl. He ain't going to know what hit him.
 
Bart and Cool Hand seem to be looking at different polls than the rest of us.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
What I see is that Obama has a commanding lead in every "purple state" checked so far. Additionally he's going on the offensive in a slew of the traditionally "red" states where polling is close. I don't see any weaknesses in the "blue" states for McCain to capitalize on and I don't even see him making the attempt.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11474.html

I agree with the fundamental urgency of separating himself from the Bush administration, I just don't think it's possible now. Especially with the "hug" picture floating around.
 
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royreali said:
Most polls show Obama with a double digit lead in Pennsylvania
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The Rasmussen poll that GoSlash27 just linked to shows it 46%-42% (i.e. well within the polling error rate) in Pennsylvania as of June 22.

GoSlash27 said:
Bart and Cool Hand seem to be looking at different polls than the rest of us.
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No, I am looking at the same ones you are looking at. Even the best case scenario at your first link still puts Obama 33 votes shy of the number roy reali mentioned.

Second, look at some of the metadata there. Indiana went for Bush 60% to 39% in 2004 - yet based on a recent 3-day poll from SurveyUSA (weak) that shows Obama with a 1% lead, they are calling Indiana for Obama?

Hell, Texas went for Bush 61% to 38% in 2004, hasn't gone to a Democrat in the last 25 years and McCain is leading by almost 10% there and they have it listed as "Weak GOP."

Finally take another look at your own polling data:
Barely Dem: 88 electoral votes up for grabs
Barely GOP: 23 electoral votes up for grabs

Frankly, I don't think your ability to understand polling data is much better than your grasp of Constitutional law.
 
One Of My Polls

Here is a link to one of the polls I looked at.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/

Now find a link to a poll that shows McCain with a current lead in the electoral college. I am not saying that this data makes me happy. I am not saying that either candidate would be better for the country. I am just stating a fact.

Guys like Morris, Rove, and Gingrich are saying that at this time McCain is in trouble.
 
Rice has too much stench from the Bush administration clinging to her. She'd be nothing but a liability for McCain.

Even if she was an asset, McCain still reminds me of Bob Dole's half-ast, half-hearted, unmotivating "campaign" against Bubba Klintoon.
 
Now find a link to a poll that shows McCain with a current lead in the electoral college.
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Once again roy, take a look at the actual data. The poll GoSlash27 linked to is a perfect example of the fallacy of this type of thinking. That "electoral college" shows Obama winning with 317 electoral votes.

The problem is that the same poll gives states to Obama based on a 1% edge in polling data. No poll in the world has a margin of error of 1% or better. Some polls, particularly the hastily done campaign season variety have margins of error as large as 7%. In fact, there are 111 electoral votes tied up in states where the difference between the candidates in the polls is less than the margin of error.

This is going to be like the last two elections in that voter turnout on each side in critical states (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado) is going to decide the election. Personally I hope Democrats continue to think of Obama's ascent as inevitable and kick back. They are already relying on several voting blocs that are notoriously unreliable in terms of voter turnout for their success. I hope the media keeps beating that drum because it will make it that much funnier come election day.
 
Condi Rice is an amazing woman and a fanatical supporter of the 2nd Amendment. She would have been my first choice for president. But she's not interested in remaining in government. Her goal is to head the NFL and I have no doubt that she will get there.

On this issue of her being painted as Bush's 3rd term. While it might temp some to use that her status as a black female would shield her some. She would bring energy to a campaign dieing due to McCain insistence on zero energy, zero controversy, zero confrontation, zero life. He's in way over his head. At this point unless Obama does something stupid he will be our next president and will appoint two extreme liberals to the supreme court during his term. McCain is to flipping stupid and arrogant and out of touch to wake up before the election is over.
 
It's very early in the election cycle to be making any predictions.

As was pointed out above, postulating the electoral college results based on 1% polling differences in the swing states, at the beginning of July no less, is a waste of oxygen.

Gallup shows a statistical dead heat nationally as of July 2, 2008:

PRINCETON, NJ -- If the presidential election were held today, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Barack Obama and 44% for John McCain, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108607/Gallup-Daily-Obama-46-McCain-44.aspx.
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