I've been a crime reporter at newspapers around the country four about five years and I've talked to a lot of cops - local, ATF, FBI.
And I usually take note of caliber, make and model whenever I can.
In my experience, cops usually confiscate low-dollar handguns from drug dealers and street criminals. A lot of .38 revolvers. A lot of cheap .380s.
Most guns that your average street felon uses were bought through straw purchases (a family member or a girlfriend buys the gun legally at the LGS and gives it to the felon). These guys don't have a lot of money (hence, why they're slinging drugs and sticking up other users and dealers) so they go for cheap stuff. They also don't know much about guns, usually, so it's whatever looks shiny.
For most of these guys, a gun is expendable. They have to be willing to toss it at a moment's notice, so they're not likely to drop $750 on a Sig because of its superior handling, reliability and accuracy.
The thing is, those aren't the guys you're likely to encounter in any kind of self-defense situation. They stay in their neighborhoods and do their dirty work in their neighborhoods.
The more likely (and dangerous) felons are the serial robbers - the guys who hit gas stations, liquor stores and tobacco shops. Some of their guns come from straw purchases, but they're also likely to come from burglaries.
Most burglars are looking for three things when they break into a house: Electronics, jewelry and guns. All the better reason to keep your weapons secured in some fashion when you're not home.
Therefore, the robbers are carrying whatever they can get their hands on. They'll have cheap stuff, or sometimes more high-dollar guns. They also have long guns.
I covered a stick-up crew that was armed with a shotgun and a a couple semiautomatics.
One robber who hit several convenience stores had a long barrel .44 Magnum Taurus Raging Bull that was stolen from a home a few weeks before the robberies started.
Then there are the domestics - a guy who shoots in wife or family. Because they're using guns that are legally purchased during better times, usually, they're shooting the same kinds of weapons you and I are.
I'm in the middle of a trial for a guy who killed eight people in a nursing home. He was an avid hunter, shooter and re-loader before. He killed everyone with a pump 12-gauge shotgun (Winchester, I think). But he also had a Taurus .357 magnum snub nose and a Taurus .22 auto.
So I think the answer here is: It depends.