On Hit Rates in Police Shootings

[Marty Hayes]

IdahoG36, do you have first had knowledge of this when you said:

"Under stress, your fine motor skills go out the window, and if the assailant is armed, you tend to focus on the weapon, not neccesarily your backstop or surroundings" ?

The reason I ask, is that the foregoing is for the most part alleviated by good training. This was a common myth perpetuated a decade ago by people advocating point shooting over sighted fire, but real life incidents regarding well trained officers have indicated that good training helps overcome the effects of stress. In one of our advanced level training classes, we get the student's heart rate up to 160-200 beats per minute, then force them to shoot a demanding course requiring fine and complex motor skills, and they do just fine.

 

[Dave in AZ]

I know that when the cops here in Phx use deadly force they use enought ot get the job done. I don't recall hearing any wounded perps when they go up against the PD here.

However when I lived in Cincinnati, It took 10X more collateral damage to get the bad guys to die. I recall one incident in particualt that 17+ rounds were fired at a suspect and he got hit in the arm.

Realistic training and practice. Thats all there is to it. It strikes me as odd, very odd that the departemnts would rather pay collateral damage lawsuits than to spend a few extra bucks developing a stress sceanrio 1x per month course.

I wonder how much collateral damage lawsuit costs have been over the years. Is it legal in every state to sue the PD dept for killing a family member who was sleeping behind a wall were a bad guy decided to make his last stand?

I have shot with a few cops over the years. Colorado State Patrol, Phx Pd, Ohio state patrol and Cincinnanti PD. The formal training is barely equivalent of that of an army basic recruit. Enough to get familair and not drop the weapons. Not enough to get good. That only comes on their own or with specific training.

 

[nemoaz]

Yeah, punching paper is easy. Everyone knows that. And some cops can't do it. Everybody knows that too. But if the average gun hobbyist thinks they are better, I seriously doubt it.

Punching paper isn't combat. And unless you've had a weapon pointed at you and returned fire, or at least played simunitions or maybe paintball you really aren't going to impress me with your record on stationary silhouettes or bowling pins. Hell, most "good shots" get embarrassed for the first 500 rounds they fire at turning silhouettes.

 

[Perldog007]

I think for the LEO's who cant hit their targets, their pistols should be taken away, and they should only be issued nightsticks and flashlights instead...

perhaps a sound idea, but might not work in the real world. Somebody has to wear the tin and funny clothes and drive the squad car to the address that the call came from.

Still I am frustrated when I see our Staties (the only law 'round here) at the store buying their old sigs because they are getting new SAO sigs in the same caliber.

I say to myself "Self, what if they bought the nice troopers an annual membership here and six hundred bucks of practice ammo instead?. Or how about driving them up to New Hampshire for a level 1 LFI class. Or maybe over to Craig Collins' school in Maryland for a class or three instead?"

So let's review. We have these brave officers most of whom only shoot when they have to and only carry because it is required. Their marksmanship is minimal and most gun nuts would shame them in a match.

Hey! Let's give them different versions of the same caliber pistol! That's going to save the day!! It's not a lack of skill here, it's that durn DA/SA transition that is making them miss :barf:

With management thinking like that, all over the country is the hit ratio any mystery?

All this back and forth about whether cops should train and practice more reminds me of old joke about the theater.

Everyone was in their seats waiting for the curtain when the manager of the Theater came on stage looking upset.

"Ladies and gentlemen, I regret to inform you that the star of our show has just died from a heart attack and there will be no performance tonight".

A little old lady in the back of the house yelled "Give him an enema".

The manager said " I am sorry, there seems to be some misunderstanding, our lead actor is dead and we cannot put on the show".

Again, the voice came from the back of the theater "Give him an enema!".

The manager became agitated and proclaimed "Lady, the man is dead and an enema is not going to do him any good!".

Came the reply "But it won't do him any harm".

Some people put little stock in practicing presentations and acquiring sight pictures, dry firing with snap caps, practicing clearing malfunctions, drawing BUGs etc...

Range time, dry firing practice and competition may not help when the balloon goes up. My opinion is that it will. It won't make them any worse than no practice for sure though.

My pop did 21 years with Dallas PD and never fired his revolver in the line of duty. Many cops never do.

We know from the Lott study that most guns used by citizens for SD are never fired. Does that mean we should save our ammo money? Following that line of reasoning to the extreme why even load the gun? At home or on Duty? We know better and we know why.

 

[David Armstrong]

Right now what they have to do leaves them coming up short.

Got to disagree. As Matt said earlier, the cops win most of the time. In fact, the cops win almost all the time. So even with a low hit rate the job gets done. If you want to have them spend more time on something, shooting is way down on the list, IMO. Spend that time and money teaching them communication skills, H2H, or a variety of other things that might make a difference. My $.02.

 

[David Armstrong]

The reason I ask, is that the foregoing is for the most part alleviated by good training. This was a common myth ....

With all due respect, Marty, that "common myth" is far from a myth. Yes, the stress reaction can be reduced/delayed with extensive training and/or advanced warning, but it has been shown to be so common in so much research that to call it a myth is a bit questionable. In fact, for the typical gun carrier I'd suggest it is common enough that it should be considered an expected response, particularly in the initial stages of a violent encounter.

 

[Perldog007]

the cops win almost all the time

That is a fact and a great point. Since today I am limiting my weapon handling to presentations, reloads and dry firing, and I am on vacation please indulge me while I go extreme keyboard commando on this point purely for the sake of debate.

"Sorry Suzie, your father was really good a communications person and hand to hand fighter because of his training. He won almost all the gunfights....."

It seems that we have debated ourselves into a police state. The police are what they are and can't be superpeople.

The only practical solution is to do what we are doing. Be responsible for our own safety to the extent that we are able. Give LEO our support whenever possible.

And rag on them to improve their own skills beyond department minimums. Be it hand to hand, communication and psychology, gun handling, defensive or tactical driving.

At the end of the day LEOs are just people. Like me and you. Most of us go out of our way to improve our skill at arms because we see it as a necessary skill. Most of us are smart enough to know that the gun is not an amulet and does not keep us safe just by having one.

Fortunately many LEOs think the same way and strive to improve all of their skills for their sake and ours. Unfortunately some don't.

Tragically in my estimation, too much time and money is spent on the latest gear in feel good measures and not enough on skills.

 

[mordis]

The post about security guards is so true its not funny. Most of the Agencies around here, do not even pay or provide any training. Tho they do prefreer if you get some. Only 2, one armored car company and one normal security company pay for training. albiet they only go to a Static range. Where they cant do any real practicing other then bullseye.

The situation with security guards is worse then that of the police IMHO. Most armed security officers around here get $7-$9hr. The average charge, per protected hour charged by some of the bigger companies here, is $42hr. That covers the pay of the officer and provides a hell of alot of profits. Alot of the armed companies wont provide any kind of indepth training unless the client site pays for it. Tho the people who represent the security company never push for a training budget. The only sight i know of that gets comprehensive training, is a Nuclear power plant out of state, that Securitas provides security for. Those guards get alot of pay and training.

Based on my experiance, the owners of the security companies are unwilling to pay for training, and when they do pay, they get the worst kind they can get. They wont pay for equipment, so some guards end up with craptastic guns and gear. Then, when a guard does pay out of pocket for his own training at a quality school, they refuse to pay him what he is worth.

Being a armed security guard is a dangerous profession, we dont get payed what were worth, no one thinks were worth a damn, and refuse to invest any money in quality training and equipment. Security companies have a horrible guard turnover rate, mostly due to guards getting higher payed jobs in other sectors, but they also have to fire alot of crappy guards. Then the bosses wounder and bitch and moan about all the crappy guards and lement the fact they cant find any quality guards. The problem with finding quality guards is the fact that they wont get the pay they deserve, and are treated like crap.

 

[MikeOrick]

A blast from the past

The good old days...

NYPD 1990 (mostly DA 38 revolvers)

Gunfight defines any incident during which both the perpetrator and the
member of the service were armed.

67 gunfights
Number of shots fired: 548
Number of hits: 105
Hit Rate: 19.2%
Number of MOS firing: 125
Shots per MOS: 4.4
Shots per gunfight: 8.2

Total number of perpetrators involved: 74
Total number of shots fired by perps: 190
Total number of hits by perpetrators: 12
Hit Rate: 6.3%

The bottom line:

Perpetrators killed: 13
Perpetrators wounded: 24
M.O.S. killed: 0
M.O.S. wounded: 13

The more things change (6 shooters to 16 shooters), the more they stay the same (hit rates).

Gunfight hit rates:

1990: 19% (67 gunfights, 105 hits of 548 shots, 8.2 per gunfight)
2000: 9% (11 gunfights, 16 hits of 185 shots, 16.8 per gunfight
2005: 8% (16 gunfights, 23 hits of 276 shots, 17.2 per gunfight)
2006: 30% (13 gunfights, 43 hits of 144 shots, 11 per gunfight)

The stress is different when it's for real. Most hunters do not shoot game in the field as well as paper at the range, and the game isn't shooting back.

 

[Charles S]

In fact, the cops win almost all the time. So even with a low hit rate the job gets done.

Right...I agree most all the time. However take a look at the outcome and the number of police it takes to win when the police are actually confronted with trained, well motivated, well armed criminals.

I will be the first to admit that it does not happen that often, but when it does the police generally have a very tough time.

 

[David Armstrong]

At the end of the day LEOs are just people. Like me and you. Most of us go out of our way to improve our skill at arms because we see it as a necessary skill.

But you are selective at what you improve, and I'll bet you improve those things you have fun at. Have you taken a high-speed driving course? How many black belts in different martial arts do you have? Are you at the peak of your physical fitness level? Probably not, even though those things are far more likely to help you survive than your gun skills. Most of us are in the same boat. Cops are no different. Some like to shoot, some don't.

 

[Perldog007]

Actually, I am a fat guy who hates the gym. I spent a year at the Ninja Academy in Ventnor NJ training in full contact and did two years of wrestling in H.S.

No black belts, held my own in more than my fair share of scuffles.

When I was in the trade got my chubby butt on a Nordic Track and could outrun much svelter folk in the short race. Believe me that twenty minutes was not my favorite part of the day. It was needed to relieve stress and allow me to move my big butt quickly on demand.

Never worked out of a car, but took and still take defensive driving courses for safety and insurance discounts. No use for high speed driving.

Still work out with kettlebells, nobody could mistake me for being in top shape unless you consider round the top shape.

Studied and worked hard on report writing and note taking. Played Kim's Games with other old timers during down time to sharpen observation.

Learned to do paperwork associated with arrests and behave in court.

Took correspondence courses and became a Certified Protection Officer, not required for any job I had.

To repeat myself, found no joy in going to the range at first. Pretty damn embarrassing to miss the whole target at fifteen yards when some goober in the next lane is cutting out the x ring.

Also, range fees and ammo can be pretty harsh on what a SPO/SO takes home.

Enjoyment of shooting took a while. Started out like anybody else. Wore the gun because I had to. Would have rather had a dog.

Because all aspects of the job were serious to me and staying out of jail/civil court/emergency rooms/morgues was a priority this cat tried to learn something constantly.

Yes I did spend a disproportionate amount of money on weapons, ammo, instruction, range time, reading material related to shooting. Since using deadly force is the gravest function of the trade took it very seriously.

Also read Marc MacYoung's streetfighting books and paid extra attention to the chapters about staying out of a fight. Massad Ayoobs "In the Gravest Extreme" was another good book.

Took courses in O.C. spray, straight baton and the pr24. Worked on blade techniques. Studied first aid and was basic first aid cpr certified. Took defensive tactics classes. None of my classes were company paid except the CPO correspondence course and the CPR class.

I also did a fair amount of unarmed work in D.C. Union Station Security carried nothing but radios and handcuffs. We got down on a nightly basis. In fact when I was first sworn in as an SPO my commission was unarmed/no uniform. Was still required to make arrests just like a real cop.

This thread is hit ratio in police shootings. I never said the job was all about shooting, that was attributed to me.

What I said and still say is that if you carry a gun, or keep one loaded to use at home, or even just shoot at the range on weekends - you owe a duty to exercise a reasonable level of care. That's common law and common sense.

To me, IMHO that means being the best safest operator you can be. My position is that such takes more training and practice than most cops get.

I feel it is foolish to upgrade weapons to compensate for lack of skill. Given the state of training requirements in general, the low hit rate does not surprise me.

People can swear to the heavens that range skill does not apply in a gunfight. Haven't been there but have come damn close and don't believe them. Practicing, training and competing makes handling your weapon second nature.

I know from unarmed combat (which I have plenty of experience at, that's what working unarmed in D.C. gets you) that practice pays off when the chips are down.

When you get the adrenaline dump because an adversary has engaged you in hand to hand combat with the intention of injuring you that is not the time to think about what you are going to do.

I know my fat butt was much more adept at taking suspects down and controlling them than more muscular men, even those with some boxing skills.
I had endlessly practiced putting opponents on the ground and controlling them and it worked even when I was pretty scared.

That put me way ahead of big muscular officers who were learning on the job.

Training no good in a real fight? That not what my son tells me. He is a Marine with two trips to the sandbox. He doesn't poo poo the value of cutting paper targets either. Haven't had much problem with him lying to me so I will accept the Corporal's estimate. YMMV.

 

[Marty Hayes]

Oh David...

I see I caught you in my verbal net.

You said:

"With all due respect, Marty, that "common myth" is far from a myth."


Referring to my post responding to IdahoG36, when he said:

"Under stress, your fine motor skills go out the window, and if the assailant is armed, you tend to focus on the weapon, not neccesarily your backstop or surroundings?"


When I said it was a common myth, I was referring to fine motor skills going out the window, (like they are gone from the building). Sure, they deteriate, but when under stress, if a person train sufficiently, you retain enough fine motor skills to handle just about any problem.

Secondly, when he said "you tend to focus on the weapon" I would also agree for the untrained, but for the trained, while he might initially fixate on the weapon in an assessment, he will re-focus on the sights to take the shot. That is why we so many shots clustered around the weapon, because they are pointing in that direction when they line up the sights and use their fine motor skills to squeeze the trigger.

All my best, my friend.

 

[David Armstrong]

I see I caught you in my verbal net.

Darn it, not again!

Sure, they deteriate, but when under stress, if a person train sufficiently, you retain enough fine motor skills to handle just about any problem.

No real disagreement. I thought I was clear with that when I said "the stress reaction can be reduced/delayed with extensive training and/or advanced warning,...."
My only real point of contention is when people call it a myth. May be semantics, but to me the myth categorization seems way off base when it is so regularly encountered.

All my best, my friend.

And to you and the better (and prettier) half. Enjoy the holidays!

 

[MikeOrick]

There is way more to this than marksmanship skills. NYPD's hit rate on dogs (smaller targets) is 2-6 times better than on people.

Looking at NYPD and Metro Dade stats there appears to be no "statistical significance between range and street efficacy".

"Since most of the shootings examined in this research involved perpetrators who were highly animated when shot at by police, until such time that police handgun qualifications involve naturally and randomly moving targets, and until such time we can simulate life-threatening dynamics during handgun qualification, direct comparisons are largely senseless. In addition, as much as trainers may wish to pursue this angle to more definitive conclusions, future efforts at quantifying the relationship between range and street efficacy will likely be further complicated by the fact that most agencies have adopted “pass-fail” qualification protocols.
However tenuous the relationship between range proficiency and street proficiency may seem with the sparse data available, it should never be used as an excuse to short-change training. Training isn’t just a means by which we foster firearms competency, it is a means by which we attempt to assure the use of lethal force within legal and procedural parameters."

Above from:

"Officer Involved Shootings: What We Didn't Know Has Hurt Us" by Aveni of the Police Policy Studies Council.

Research Summary of Facts
To encapsulate and contrast the conclusions reached through the course of this research, the following observations are offered:
1. It appears that using officer hit ratio data from metropolitan law enforcement agencies has skewed our expectations. Individual hit ratios may be substantially higher than previously thought. Since bunch-shooting data was seldom (if ever) segregated from other officer hit ratios, we might surmise that much of the historical metro police shooting data has been misleading. Shootings involving singular officers appear to have hit ratios approaching (if not exceeding) 50%.
2. Mistake-of-Fact shootings remain a troublesome issue, representing 18-33%of police shootings.
3. Bunch-shootings seem to increase the number of rounds fired per officer by at least 45%, and reduce per officer hit ratios by as much as 82%.
4. Bunch-shootings may very well influence the nature in which officers utilize deadly force through the manner in which judgment and reactions are influenced (e.g., MOF shootings, associative threat identification, sympathetic firing impulse, etc.).
5. Low light shootings account for at least 60% of police applications of deadly force. They seem to diminish police hit ratios by as much as 30%. Low light also accounts for as many as 75% of all mistake-of-fact shootings.
6. Applications of deadly force seem to be more frequently preceded by unsuccessful attempts to employ less-lethal alternatives.

Can find the .pdf at the Police Policy Studies Council: http://www.theppsc.org/

Another good source of info is Force Science News:

http://www.forcesciencenews.com/home/index.html

And of course, there is always our own personal experience, collected war stories, and the errornet.

 

[Yellowfin]

I shall make it a point to NEVER live there. In fact that makes me fear for my sister in law's safety. If she wasn't so insistent in pursuing a career as a Broadway star I'd have her move out of there ASAP.

 

[MyGunsJammed]

Yellowfin,

I totally understand man.... NYC/NYS is such an anti-gun state that it just sickens me......


I read the NYPD blotter from time to time in the newspaper. Its a list of all the crime that took place in the city each day, and its documented by the cops.

Wheter it be robbery, murder, rape, shootings, assault...... the bad guy always gets away with the crime, and the victim usually goes to the hospital badly injured, or worse ends up dead.

Why? Because the frigging NYPD normally takes about 10 minutes on average to arrive at a crime scene once the crime has been committed.
They just come, take statements, collect evidence, pick up dead bodies and send survivors to the hospital.

Why is that the average citizen is not allowed to protect him/herself??

maybe its just that we give too much reliance and trust to the NYPD to protect us when they really cant....

For example, I work in a bank, and I always feel safe, why? because there is a lot of car and foot traffic that passes by my bank all day long. There also usually is a cop or two standing in front directing traffic, and there usually is an undercover walking the streets looking for cabbies to pull over.

I need to friggin get outta this expensive, overly crowded, hell hole one of these days....