McCain leads Obama Among "Likely Voters"

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cool hand luke 22:36

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The latest USA Today - Gallup poll is showing McCain ahead by around 4% among "likely voters" as of August 2-3.

This looks like a bad trend for Obama, considering all the incredibly favorable media attention he received during his European - Middle East trip.

Another factor to consider is the historic trend for polls to overstate the willingness of voters to support a Black candidate, the "Tom Bradley" effect.

McCain seems to be gaining in the electoral vote also.

For some reason, Obama is alienating increasing numbers of voters.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/07/gains-for-mccai.html
 
Presidential elections with no incumbent are usually very near run things. Instances like the first Bush trouncing Dukakis being the exception (Dukakis was just a terrible, terrible candidate).

Obama is not inevitable, just as Hillary proved to be not inevitable.

I admit, I went through most of the primaries sure that she was inevitable, at least for the Dem nomination.

At the same time, for most of the primaries who would've put their money on McCain getting the nomination?

I was telling people I was sure he was going to drop out at one point.
 
It's not even the convention yet. And Obama's out of gas? If so, it'd be unsurprising based on, well, every single thing about Obama.


We'll see what kind of bounce he gets out of the convention. Then it's the home stretch.
 
I would definitely not read to much into this. If you research how they determined who is a likely voter you will notice that some very strange criteria was used. In fact, anyone that has only voted in one presidential election (anyone 25 and under) are not counted as likely voters. Nor is anyone that did not declare that they have read the published voters guides.

The same article still says Obama is ahead 8 points with registered voters.

This just sounds like a "don't bother to get organized and show up to vote since McCain is ahead without you."
 
The same article still says Obama is ahead 8 points with registered voters
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I think the article said it was closer to Obama ahead by 3% among registered voters;

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.
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That 3% lead is very suspect.

Historically, a significant gap is usually shown between the number of White and Asian voters who say that they'll vote for a Black candidate and the number who actually do.

Polls showed Tom Bradley had a solid lead for the CA Governorship just a day before the election, and yet he still lost by several percent.

Given that Obama is a such great unknown quantity to many White and Asian voters, I expect that his poll numbers are even more inflated than Bradley's were.
 
Read it again.

Quote:
The USA TODAY/Gallup Poll is separate from Gallup's daily "tracking" poll on the presidential race, which this afternoon shows Obama ahead by 8 points among registered voters -- 48%-40%.
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Take another look at the dates on that poll, July 25-27.

The latest Gallup tracking poll is from July 31- Aug. 2 and shows Obama 45%, McCain 44%

PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain remain statistically tied in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for July 31-Aug. 2, with Obama at 45% and McCain at 44% among registered voters.
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http://www.gallup.com/poll/109183/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx

Obama is sinking fast for some reason. He's given up 8% in the latest polls since his return from Europe.
 
I like how they are including this blurb now...
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
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Of course they leave of the part about only if such numbers are publicly listed. How many people have listed cell phone numbers?
 
Rasmussen (credible as it gets) has similar results in their daily tracking poll. It's true that it is too early but the trend is that without a wizz bang stunt Obama slips while McCain stays steady and continues to gain..

Been saying for some time that 'Obama Mania' was mere hype trying to convince people he was inevitable. He never was and is continuing to slip.

Maybe another concert will help...
 
Obama is like a song that is played on the radio over and over and over until you cant stand it anymore. I think his "new and shiny" position that he has held for so long is starting to wear thin. I think that his 'inflating or tires properly' was a slap in the face to America. I know its a minor thing but I don't believe that anyone likes to be talked to like they are 2 years old.

Plus the more he talks about his policies the more people are seeing that he is the same old same old liberal politcian.

I could be wrong but I thought that historically Democrats do better in polling data than on election day results and the opposite is true for Republicans.
 
It's not even the convention yet. And Obama's out of gas? If so, it'd be unsurprising based on, well, every single thing about Obama.
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Obama never had to run in a serious race past a primary. His only REAL competition always came from within his own party. Look at his history... liberal Dem from a Liberal Dem city moving up through a liberal machine. It was never about real Left vs. Right issues. It was always about shoring up support within the Dem machine. This is why he beat Hillary. She entered the race looking at the Primary as just a formality t taking on the Rep nominee. Obama looked at the Primary as THE race, like all his other primaries.

Now the problem for him is what worked in his primary will NOT work when trying to win over middle of the road independents and moderate republicans. He needs to distance himself from most of his adult life to this point and paint himself as something new because he NEVER HAD TO APPEAL TO ANYTHING BUT HIS BASE.

Obama has problems and nobody has really paid much attention to it. McCain, while carrying the stigma of being a republican still has the ability to appeal to a broader cross section than Obama.

The youth vote Obama is drawing should not be discounted but also should not be looked at as absolutely critical. Simply put, most kids do not get off their butts and vote. It is as simple as that. They have no problem showing up for a rally someone tells them is going to start in an hour but try to get them to register or show up at the polls in significant numbers...

The press will continue to hype Obama but his lack of substance is becoming more and more apparent along with his lack of appeal outside a limited circle as what is known about him becomes circulated. The worst thing we can do to ourselves though in opposing him is to assume McCain has no chance and give up.
 
Leave "victory by poll" to the Dems. They seem to believe that if they can portray a candiate as the winner (however creatively) that he will somehow therefore win. This is probably the assumption behind so many of their push polls and selective exit polls.


I think experience tells us that just making your guy look like he's ahead doesn't bring election day victory.


Even if one could bend the Dems' elbows the wrong way and make them admit McCain is ahead in the polls, it wouldn't make McCain win in November. Let them dream now. It pays off just in the looks on their faces the day after the election.


We'll see what things look like in three weeks when they have their convention. Hillary and her flying monkeys can still cause major havoc. If Obama slides further in the polls and the flop sweat gets bad by convention time, there could be plenty of fun.
 
As of August 2nd, Gallup shows both Obama and McCain in a dead heat - 44% each. Rasmussen shows Obama with 47% and McCain with 46% - again, a dead heat.

Even if the USA Today (tracking) poll is the most current (by Gallup), the margin of error still shows a dead heat.

When looking at possible Electoral votes, Obama is in the lead with 338 v. McCain at 200.

Too early and too close for any meaningful results, let alone discussion (IMO). But go ahead with it anyway.
 
I feel we may be seeing the tide beginning to turn against Obama. McCain has gained some ground in some of the polls. And Obama seems to be stumbling on some issues.

Just today Obama flip flopped on new offshore drilling and now thinks some limited drilling would be OK if it was part of a comprehensive energy package.

I don't think Obama will see a bump upwards in his numbers until he names Hillary as his vice president candidate.
 
75 to 100 days out is usually when voters start to take the election seriously and making evaluations. Obama maybe heading to a tipping point if he peaked too early (and now IS too early). Time will tell.
 
What happened to Obama the left wing liberal? I think his clear moves to the center have now just made him look more like McCain....not the other way around. Obama has moved, not McCain.

Obama now:
Stay in Iraq 16 mo. or longer
Drill for oil off shore
Tap oil reserves
Support gun rights for sportsman to go hunting with .22 (short) rim fires...thought I would put that in.:D

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080804/ap_on_el_pr/obama

Obama's new proposal, though, includes two significant reversals of positions he has taken in the past: He had steadfastly fought the idea of limited new offshore drilling and was against tapping the nation's emergency oil stockpile to relieve pump prices that have stubbornly hovered around $4 a gallon.
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Next thing he will say he did not vote against the Iraq war.

Does Michael Moore still support this guy?:rolleyes:
 
Antipitas said:
Rasmussen shows Obama with 47% and McCain with 46% - again, a dead heat.
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You got that backwards......Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll has McCain at 47% and Obama at 46%. Yes, a statistical dead heat and yes, not a definate indicator that McCain will win the election. What it, and other polls, are indicating is that the trend is McCain gaining and that Obama Mania/Obama inevitability is in fact mere hype.

That hype, the media saturation, and the myth of inevitability have been all to Obama's advantage and to what end........a statistical tie with McCain trending ahead. What more can be done to prop up Obama? No where to go but down. He has begun taking on Republican positions now and I doubt that apearing more Republican is going to be a boost for a Democrat.......
 
He has begun taking on Republican positions now and I doubt that apearing more Republican is going to be a boost for a Democrat.......
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Worked for Bill Clinton.

Leftists always attempt to move to the center come general election time. Obama's problem is his entire limited career has been spent not in left field but on the other side of the wall and out in left parking lot. His position is so to the left that his move towards the center does little to win new voters over and only alienates those leftists who thought him the second coming and now see the man who painted himself as a "new kind of politician" as nothing of the sort.
 
Worked for Bill Clinton.
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Yes, but as you indicated, Obama has had much further to move, and that draws attention. Bill's was more of a smooth shift.;)

Now I am sure his original lefties are thinking. We are OK. Obama is just hiding out so he can get in office, but then again they are not sure.
 
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