Long term viability of niche cartridges?

In the early '80s I bought a Ruger No. 1 chambered in 6 Remington for target, varmit, and pronghorn shooting. I chose that caliber because its exterior ballistics were a bit flatter and it bucked a crosswind better than the similar .243 Winchester. In retrospect, I should have chosen the caliber the crowd favored.
 
Tipoc's suggestion of looking at current market offerings for selected calibers is, to me, an excellent one. If you had that data over time--say 10 years or more, I think it would be an excellent predictor.

Another source of similar information is reloadersauction.com. The brass that's available, the quantities it's available in and the price are strong indicators to me of what's currently being shot. Maybe not a good predictor of the future, but again, if those statistics were gathered over time it could provide very could trending data.
 
If it's just a matter of figuring out what is what than a copy of "Cartridges of the World" contains sections on obsolete rounds. It tells you about rounds that have come back from the grave due to developments like Cowboy Action Shooting. It informs you of what rounds are dying out, etc.

Forker's "Ammo and Ballistics" is a useful reference in this regard as is the "Ammo Encyclopedia". Looking at reloading manuals also shows you how rounds are doing. Each of these are updated as the years go by and one can see how a round does.

tipoc
 
if you play with niche cartridges, that is those that were once popular but have faded a bit.... i.e. 10mm, .357sig, .45gap, .38super.... hand loading is the best way to go.

if you are wealthy you can scour the internet to find some of this factory ammo and have it shipped to you, or you can search local shops for a while until a box or two shows up.......

in spite of Glock's dream the GAP has faded away fairly quickly. even the Ga. troopers whom were practically given the GAP guns have changed over. the .357sig has faded as well, but im sure you can find one or two state trooper agencies still using it, maybe even a few large metro agencies..... the .38super seems to only be a true favorite with bowling pin shooters.... and while the 10mm I the best of all worlds in one, most shooters cant handle the round in its true loading and can get the same watered down performance with other cartridges for less money.
 
I would only add one thing.

During the 2012-2013 shortage there was always some .40S&W on the shelf.

In times when no 9mm or .45ACP was to be found, .40 owners at least found something to shoot.

I am maintaining my .40 guns, and a stock of ammo.

If Bill Clinton becomes "First Dude" I will need it. :( :(
 
I'd define 'niche' as special purpose, special interest, limited popularity--but not necessarily as once popular and now not so much. But that's not really that important. In any case, I would include 10mm in niche under my definition, but not under the definition of less popularity than once enjoyed. My impression is 10mm is probably more popular now than it ever was, not that this is saying much (you know, "there were 0 shooters 20 years ago, there are 1,500 now" would have no material significance to a manufacturer).

But, if you look at the cost of getting into reloading, we're talking the cost of 5-10 boxes of ammo, and if you shoot at all, you break even in a few weeks of shooting. I know I did because I ran the numbers--I broke even in 1 week, actually.

So, that gives you the freedom to not really care too much if a round is 'niche' or not, so long as you can recover your brass and replenish it.

Heck, I just started shooting 45 Winchester Magnum--and will be shooting it for about $0.20 a round for the rest of my life with just the supplies I currently have on hand. :D That's one heck of a lot more niche than 357 Sig.
 
James K wrote:

... civilian niche calibers, even those for which guns were made by major makers, tend to vanish when the sales no longer warrant the costs of production. I think .40 S&W will be around a long time; I won't say the same thing for 10mm, .45 GAP, or .357 SIG, though. Each has fans, but most reload anyway, and so don't factor into the ammunition companies' calculations.
Click to expand...

This is why you see me reminding people to buy ammo in the .327 thread. The law of supply and demand is alive and kicking, even if your cartridge isn't. If the number of people who own guns in X and enjoy shooting them is already small, and the percentage of them who reload only is large or growing, the market naturally responds by supplying less. That, in turn, signals those watching the market. That affects the consideration to invest in releasing new guns or ammo selections in X.

So, you love a niche caliber? Spend some money on it. Share it with friends. Get them spending money on it. Let manufacturers know how much you enjoy their product in X and how you'd like to see more of it. Heck, Ruger just surprised the naysayers by releasing a new 4" SP101 in .327 Federal Magnum and it just happens to be what a lot of us were publicly asking for...

While I think it's too late for my .218 Bee, I'd say there's still hope for .357 SIG.
 
Heck, local wally has 10mm, 25acp, 32acp, etc etc stocked deep. But, 22lr about never! Never thought the old 22 would be a nich caliber...
 
If you aren't going to run with the herd, you have to pay the price to break your own trail.

The last 100+ years have shown us a number of rounds that bloomed, flourished for a time, and "died", and yet are still with us. Some are more with us today than at any time in the past 50 years. Other are not, but everything is, and will be available, IF you are willing to pay the price.

And that's the rub. Most of us can't or won't. Niche, obsolete, failed, all these can still be had, if you can pay. and pay A LOT.

SO, the question is not so much what will "last", its what can I afford to feed in the worst case? This is where handloading comes to the top of the list. If you want something you feel is going to eventually be dropped by the factories, you BECOME the factory.

Pony up the price for the reloading tools and components now, and you will be set for the rest of your life (if you do it right, and we can talk about that, if you want).

If you are going to stick with what you can find on the local shelves, (or major internet suppliers), for whatever reason, then you are better off to run with the herd.

Niche round also includes rounds that are in current production, just not widely popular for general use. .22 Hornet is considered a niche round. Been alive and kicking since 1930, still is, but its never going to be cheap and abundant. specialty round, and specialty price.

The .357Sig is going to be with us a long time, even after every police dept stops using it. Might get scarce but its not likely to go away.

The .45GAP isn't likely to stay, once Glock decides its no longer cost effective to support it. It doesn't have even a fraction of the popularity of the .357 Sig. On the other hand, when they do drop it, any one with a stock of the ammo left after the "panic buy" rush when it does get dropped will likely have it for some time.:rolleyes:

I might be a pessimist, but the rounds I would really avoid are the rimfire ones. The .17s are neat, but will they last? or will just one last? I remember the 5mm Remington very clearly. Last I heard a box of 5mm Rem was worth more than the rifle.

Can't reload the rimfires, can't make brass from other cases, when they get dropped, its hail and farewell as existing ammo dwindles and passes into the realm of too collectable to shoot.
 
The amazing thing about cartridges is that they can become obsolete and then, due to some change or discovery in the shooting public, spring back to life.

For example, at one time the .45 Colt and .45-70 cartridges were basically obsolete. Little to no factory ammo was available for them, they were seen as relics of the past, and few, if any, new guns were being offered in those chamberings.

That all started to change in the 1960s with the centennary of the Civil War, which led to a rise in interest in the history of the west (as the baby boomer kids started to go from cap guns to real guns) and the rise of sports like Cowboy Action Shooting.

The 10mm and the .41 Magnum are really niche cartridge, but continue to hang on stubbornly because of the efforts of a small, loyal following (.41 Mag. lover here!).

You can never tell what's the shooting public is going to suddently "discover."
 
" Last I heard a box of 5mm Rem was worth more than the rifle."

Aguilla, I think, was loading 5mm Remington ammo a few years ago.
 
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