Long term viability of niche cartridges?

1

11mm

New member
So I've been toying with the idea of something a little more exotic in the semi auto realm in particular the Sig P320 full size or the Glock 31(it'll be a range toy and maybe night stand gun). I like these two because i worry that .357 Sig might not be around all that much longer and a Glock barrel can make it a .40 or one of those caliber x change kits that Sig makes could make it a .45 (promised as forthcoming on Sigs website) or 9 or 40. So that's the main reason I'm looking at these two, a back up if .357 sig goes away.

I'd like a 9x23 winchester but that makes .357 sig seem common place and economical and I off the top of my head I cant think of anything chambered in it. Maybe this should be a separate thread but what do you guys think about the future of .357 sig? I see a lot of people comment that the .357 sig is in the same boat as the .327 federal and the .45 Gap on the way to obscurity. A friend of mine has a .41 Mag and a .257 roberts and I see his struggle trying to find ammo he can only usually find a few boxes with very limited bullet selection wherever he goes, in this part of the country anyway. The Most exotic round I stock is 10mm and I can find it pretty easily but my chronograph has shown that the PMC that's common around here is slower than warm-ish SD .40 rounds and the hornady 10mm is the hottest thing relatively common. the buffalo bore that puts up big numbers is a rare find in these parts but running through my chronograph out of my Glock 20 it met or exceeded the claims they made on the box.
 
Who knows, with digital printing you may be able to print most any cartridge ever made, assuming you have one for n good shape and a relatively inexpensive laser scanner.
That could give new life to very limited run brass or even something that doesn't exist yet. Sig .357 would be easy.
 
That seems cost effective.
Another thing are the polymer Sigs as well made as the 220 line that (to me and my generation anyway) built their reputation for quality? Because with price cuts that drastic from the more traditional line I wonder where they're saving the cost.
I've seen the SP2022, P250 and P320 referred to as "budget Sigs" Does a 226's polymer frame cost $300 more than a SP2022 polymer frame?
 
The cartridges that have the greatest longevity are those for which the largest number of guns are still in circulation. That usually means the military calibers, like .45-70. But civilian niche calibers, even those for which guns were made by major makers, tend to vanish when the sales no longer warrant the costs of production. I think .40 S&W will be around a long time; I won't say the same thing for 10mm, .45 GAP, or .357 SIG, though. Each has fans, but most reload anyway, and so don't factor into the ammunition companies' calculations.

The name of the game is economic. Few ammunition companies keep a production line running continually for one cartridge (9mm or 5.56 may be exceptions). They run a batch of one caliber, enough to last the cycle, change the line to another caliber, and so on until the first one comes around again. But if there is a large demand for one caliber, that line will stay up and the less popular calibers will be put on the waiting list. But changing a production line costs money, so they are not going to do it unless the demand warrants. Sell ten million boxes a year - it gets produced. Sell ten boxes a year - it's gonzo.

Jim
 
At least you can make 357 sig brass from 40... makes reloads a viable option.


Does a 226's polymer frame cost $300 more than a SP2022 polymer frame?
Click to expand...


I'm confused... the 226 is an alloy frame, not poly.


As far as cost... A polymer frame is about $0.10 of materials. The biggest cost is the tooling to mold the frame.

Metal frames have a higher material cost, the equipment cost is high, and the time to make a frame is much longer, as it requires more steps, like forging and milling of parts.

So between the material, equipment, and labor involved, I can see the gap being wide in cost.
 
I must be old time (certainly true of my age) but I tend to stick with the older rounds. There are no 357 Sig, 40 caliber or .45 Glock shooters in my inventory.

The only new age caliber I have is a rifle round in .17 HMR. I picked it up during the past and current .22 Rim Fire shortage. It was an easy to find round, and I really enjoy it.
 
One mold machine can makeba poly frame every few seconds... One CNC machine takes several minutes to make one frame.

That's a big driver in cost. They can simply make more poly guns in the same amount of time.

Also the internal parts for the 320 are cheaper and easier to make. The main internal frame is stamped steel, the small parts are MIM... The whole pistol is cheaper to make.
 
I see your point the more I think about it, I may have been conditioned away from polymer = cheap by the USP's being in the same ball park as the 226's.
 
If you might consider a revolver, 327 is not a bad choice. It will shoot s&w 32 short or long just fine, or 32 h&r magnum. Some will even shoot 32acp. Even if 327 gets more scarce you will still have plenty of ammo choices to feed it.
 
It may happen sometime in the distant future, but I do not see 357 Sig going away anytime soon. 45 GAP, on the other hand, will be gone as soon as Glock gives up on it.
 
I think almost all of those are going to be with us at least in limited production. You may not be able to walk into Walmart and buy them, in fact many are not stocked there now.

10mm will never be big, but there is a small, but very active group of shooters. I think the round serves a purpose for those who want true magnum power from a smaller semi auto pistol. You may have to order ammo online, but I expect it to be available. If there is room for 41 mag, and there is, there is room for 10mm.

If you want to get the best out of your 10mm look at the Double Tap loadings. They are too expensive for plinking, and only available online. But 200 gr @ 1300 fps is serious bear medicine from such a small gun. For informal cheap shooting I run 40 S&W loads through my G-20 with the 10mm barrel and magazines.

40 S&W and 357 Sig are declining in LE use, but are well established. too many guns out there, those 2 will be there and I expect ammo to be easily available. Especially 40 S&W.

45 GAP and 327 mag are probably going to be the hardest to find ammo for, especially 45 GAP. I'm not interested in 327, but can see where there is some demand. I can't think of a single advantage 45 GAP offers. If any round dies, it will be the one.
 
If you want to be able to walk into the gun shop down the street and buy niche ammo, you probably already have difficulties that aren't likely to get better. For .357 Sig, all I usually see (if anything) is expensive HD rounds, not cheap FMJ for the range. I buy it by the case online and maintain my own stock, I bet most do the same. I doubt it or .40 will ever go away, and in fact if you dig around you can still find just about any ammo you want if you're willing to order online.
 
For two decades 40 S&W has been the dominant round used in law enforcement. It may have lost some ground to the 9mm but not as much as some internet gun forums seems to think.

357 Sig never got rolling in law enforcement despite serious marketing efforts there. Only a couple of dozen agencies adopted it and many of those have transitioned back to 40 or 9. But because it was there for a bit it will stick around for a good piece. It's helped in this by the presence of switch barrel guns.

10 mm has been a niche round practically from it's inception and will continue as that for a good many years to come.

38 Super will stick around. Too good to die and too widespread.

45 GAP will die out as soon as Glock ceases building guns for it.

Others, like the 9x23 (Winchester and Cor-Bon produce loads for it), 38/45 Casull, 45 Super, etc. will stick as handloaded rounds.

If you go by here ...

http://www.midwayusa.com/shop/handgun-ammunition/ammunition

You get a rough idea of how many manufacturers load commercial ammo for various rounds. This gives you an approximate idea of the status of a round. For example we see that there are 117 offerings for ammo selections and amounts for 40 S&W, 159 for 9mm, 36 for 357 Sig, 22 for 45 GAP and 4 for 400 Cor-Bon.

tipoc
 
Last edited:
One thing is that you can do is post that you need something. I think I may have a small bag of .357 Sig out in my loading room. I will pm you if I find it.

As long as parent cases are available I do not see it as a big deal to make up 1000 cases or more so you can shoot and not worry about having ammo to answer that bump in the night.

The one good thing about the site the High Road is that they have a pass it on thread where guys post reloading related stuff that they no longer need that someone else might be looking for.
 
Is it possible to reliably predict what will or will not become a "niche" cartridge? There are too many political, economic and consumer variables, I imagine. I was only in high school when .40 S&W was introduced to the market. What was the general consensus concerning the longevity of that round in the early 90's? Is a round more likely to last if manufactured for law enforcement or military use? Is that why .357mag and 9mm parabellum has been around so long? If that is the case, why is 5.7mm not taking off? A lot of questions, I know; but I think the OP is asking whether or not a round will stick around. Does answering that require ESP?
 
Is it possible to reliably predict what will or will not become a "niche" cartridge?
Click to expand...

No not really, especially when they are first introduced. Though one can be suspicious based on past experience.

There are too many political, economic and consumer variables, I imagine. I was only in high school when .40 S&W was introduced to the market. What was the general consensus concerning the longevity of that round in the early 90's?
Click to expand...

It was introduced in a dramatic fashion and took off like a shot. Out the gate it had the endorsement of the FBI and the Justice Dept. as the best round for law enforcement. No round has come to dominate the law enforcement market so quickly as the 40 S&W. The general consensus was "Wow!"

There were naysayers who called it the 40 Short and Weak. But they were a minority.

Is a round more likely to last if manufactured for law enforcement or military use?
Click to expand...

Yes. But only if it remains a round for the military and law enforcement and builds a following and reputation. There are graveyards full of ex-military rounds that were used for a few years and dropped. Some completely dead and some niche.

If that is the case, why is 5.7mm not taking off?
Click to expand...

Who's military and law enforcement uses it? How widespread its it's use? Who makes guns for it and how available are they? How expensive is the ammo? Those things make a difference.

tipoc
 
If you want to own/shoot "niche" handgun cartridges, handloading is the way to go.

I own/shoot/load for 10mm, .41 Mag and .45LC.

If I did not load my own, I would have to consider the cost of factory ammo for any/all of these rounds to be prohibitive.

As it is, I can load 50 rounds of any of them for around $7.50 (.15/rd).
For more common rounds like .45 acp, it's closer to $6.00 for 50 rounds (.12/rd).

Compare that to the cost of .22LR these days, and it becomes pretty hard to make a case against handloading.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top