Howdy
Now maybe somebody who actually owns a couple of 1873 rifles should chime in.
DO NOT use pointed bullets in a rifle chambered for 'pistol cartridges' with a tubular magazine. DO NOT use conventional round nosed bullets in a rifle with a tubular magazine. Your best bet is bullets that are Round Nosed Flat Point. RNFP. Or Flat Point Round Nose, same thing. Semi-Wadcutters are also good, but because of the square shoulder they can have feeding problems. Truncated Cone bullets are also good.
It is not the force of recoil that is likely to cause a bullet nose to fire a primer it is sitting against, it is the slamming that happens every time the carrier strips one round out of the magazine and the follower slams the entire column of cartridges back all at once. Much more force is exerted that way than in recoil.
Comparing a tubular magazine 30-30 to a rifle chambered for 45 Colt, 44-40, or 357 Mag is comparing apples to oranges. Because of the shape of the bottleneck 30-30 round, the cartridges tend to stagger themselves in the magazine, bullets do not rest against primers. Completely different story with straight cased 45 Colt or 357 Mag, or even 44-40 or 38-40. Bullets do sit directly against the primer in front of them.
Has it happened before?
You bet it has.
Particularly with the 1860 Henry if a careless shooter looses his grasp on the follower handle and allows the spring to slam the follower down on a column of rounds in the magazine. Rifles have been ruined and shooters have been injured with brass fragments in their hides.
Left to right in this photo are a 45 Colt, 44-40, and 38-40, all loaded with Round Nosed Flat Point Bullets. Or Flat Point Round Nosed Bullets, same thing.
The 38 Special round 2nd from the right in this photo is loaded with a Truncated Cone bullet. Excellent choice of bullets. The 357 Mag with the Semi-Wadcutter is OK, but as I said, sometimes the sharp paper cutting corner can cause problems feeding in a lever gun. Sometimes the corner will catch on the edge of the chamber. More common with tilting carrier rifles such as the Winchester Model 1892, less of a problem with the straight feeding carrier of a toggle link rifle such as the 1860 Henry, Winchester Model 1866, or Winchester Model 1873.
If you don't load your own you can buy commercial Cowboy Ammunition which is almost always loaded with RNFP bullets for exactly the reasons I have stated.