Is there any credible data...
- Thread starter MandolinMan
- Start date
I've been following theories and statistics concerning handgun "stopping power" since the '70s.
I spent a lot of time reading about Hatcher's Relative Stopping Power, Taylor's TKO, Relative Incapacitation Index, etc., and they all focus on one-shot stops.
Trying to predict, or determine based on statistical analysis, the likelihood that a single shot will end the situation, seemed to always be the goal.
A couple of years ago, I read an article written by a guy who, using available data (can't remember which data . . .), determined that there are enough non-ballistic, one-shot stops, of the, "My God, I've been shot!" variety, that cartridge effectiveness is skewed.
Popular cartridges have a disproportionate number of one-shot stops.
I remember one "study" indicated that .32 hardball was as effective as .45 hardball; because a lot more people are shot with .32s than with .45s?
Only if you look at shootings involving more than one shot does the cartridge start to have a real (wait for it . . .) impact on the results.
The writer decided that caliber became disproportionately important after the first shot.
I spent a lot of time reading about Hatcher's Relative Stopping Power, Taylor's TKO, Relative Incapacitation Index, etc., and they all focus on one-shot stops.
Trying to predict, or determine based on statistical analysis, the likelihood that a single shot will end the situation, seemed to always be the goal.
A couple of years ago, I read an article written by a guy who, using available data (can't remember which data . . .), determined that there are enough non-ballistic, one-shot stops, of the, "My God, I've been shot!" variety, that cartridge effectiveness is skewed.
Popular cartridges have a disproportionate number of one-shot stops.
I remember one "study" indicated that .32 hardball was as effective as .45 hardball; because a lot more people are shot with .32s than with .45s?
Only if you look at shootings involving more than one shot does the cartridge start to have a real (wait for it . . .) impact on the results.
The writer decided that caliber became disproportionately important after the first shot.
reynolds357
New member
Its all a tradeoff. For the average street gun encounter would I rather have a 6 shots in a 44 mag or 21 shots in my CZ 75 9mm. I would choose the 9. I would even choose the 9 at 14 shots.
People have been using various drugs for generations now, many generations. It complicates things no more now than in the past.
How many police labs do toxicology panels on dead folks routinely, especially on those found dead with multiple gunshot holes in their bodies? The answer is not many, if any at all. Unless there is a clear reason for doing so and it's not too expensive, it usually won't be done.
tipoc
How many police labs do toxicology panels on dead folks routinely, especially on those found dead with multiple gunshot holes in their bodies? The answer is not many, if any at all. Unless there is a clear reason for doing so and it's not too expensive, it usually won't be done.
tipoc
Drop by here and poke around.
http://www.rathcoombe.net/sci-tech/ballistics/politics.html
and here...
http://www.ar15.com/ammo/project/Fackler_Articles/effects_of_small_arms.pdf
tipoc
http://www.rathcoombe.net/sci-tech/ballistics/politics.html
and here...
http://www.ar15.com/ammo/project/Fackler_Articles/effects_of_small_arms.pdf
tipoc
Always lots of potential for polarizing "debate" over handgun caliber "effectiveness". Perennial topic.
Well, having long been a shooting enthusiast who favored .357 Magnum, .44 Magnum and .45 ACP for "effective handgun calibers", and then having spent a career in LE (serving in both full-time and reserve capacities), during which I also served as a firearms instructor for 26 years ... I have my own opinions, and exposure to experience and training has influenced those opinions.
More practical knowledge, range training & practice time, less obsessing on any real or imagined subtle nuances regarding "ammunition performance" for dedicated defensive handguns.
Want your handgun caliber of choice to be "more effective"?
Train better. Practice better. Aim better. Use the best quality ammunition of modern design that you can afford (presuming it's lawful to possess/use in your locality, of course).
I've listened to my fair share of cops who have been involved in shooting incidents. You know the one most common observation made during those conversations? The importance of aiming and getting solid hits on their attackers. A couple of things hardly ever mentioned (unless someone else thinks to ask)? Caliber or brand of ammo.
Well, having long been a shooting enthusiast who favored .357 Magnum, .44 Magnum and .45 ACP for "effective handgun calibers", and then having spent a career in LE (serving in both full-time and reserve capacities), during which I also served as a firearms instructor for 26 years ... I have my own opinions, and exposure to experience and training has influenced those opinions.
More practical knowledge, range training & practice time, less obsessing on any real or imagined subtle nuances regarding "ammunition performance" for dedicated defensive handguns.
Want your handgun caliber of choice to be "more effective"?
Train better. Practice better. Aim better. Use the best quality ammunition of modern design that you can afford (presuming it's lawful to possess/use in your locality, of course).
I've listened to my fair share of cops who have been involved in shooting incidents. You know the one most common observation made during those conversations? The importance of aiming and getting solid hits on their attackers. A couple of things hardly ever mentioned (unless someone else thinks to ask)? Caliber or brand of ammo.
reynolds357
New member
Every homicide I ever worked had toxicology report as part of the autopsy. It is an essential piece of evidence. It would take a negligent medical examiner and a rookie homicide investigator to not do toxicology in a shooting death.
I can't dispute what you saw. I also know this is a big country. But in general a tox screen is not routinely done in the case of a violent or untimely death unless there is reason to suspect that it may be a factor in the death or conditions surrounding the death. The request for that would be made by the police, the family or the medical examiner.
These requests are not routinely made unless there is a reason. They are not rare but also not common and not routine or the norm.
This has a lot to do with budgets and work load on the country level. But also because in many cases no one sees a reason for it.
tipoc
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I'm not an expert on anything. I only know what I have read (a lot), what I have heard (some), and what I have seen (a little).
I saw a 140 pound man take 3 solid torso hits with a 45 ACP without any visible effect. A 4th hit caused him to fall but he had bled out by that time anyway.
I know of a 6'6" 350 pound body builder biker brute who was shot once in the chest with a 9mm and dropped like a sack of flour. He didn't get back up.
I read about a cop taking 6 rounds from a 357 Magnum in the torso and he ripped the gun from the shooter's hand and beat him unconscious with it. He survived.
A surgeon told me that in the hundreds of GSWs he had worked on he couldn't tell the difference in handgun caliber by the amount of damage. The 22s did less damage and rifle calibers did far more. But if the wounds were made by a pistol he couldn't see any difference regardless of caliber. All looked the same.
What does all this mean? I dunno. My thinking is that unless you have a 500 caliber hand cannon it probably doesn't make a whole lot of difference what caliber you use. A 380 to a 45...all will kill a man dead. Use what you are comfortable with and can shoot accurately. Humans for the most part are not hard to put down. Unless on drugs they will usually flee or collapse at being shot.
I saw a 140 pound man take 3 solid torso hits with a 45 ACP without any visible effect. A 4th hit caused him to fall but he had bled out by that time anyway.
I know of a 6'6" 350 pound body builder biker brute who was shot once in the chest with a 9mm and dropped like a sack of flour. He didn't get back up.
I read about a cop taking 6 rounds from a 357 Magnum in the torso and he ripped the gun from the shooter's hand and beat him unconscious with it. He survived.
A surgeon told me that in the hundreds of GSWs he had worked on he couldn't tell the difference in handgun caliber by the amount of damage. The 22s did less damage and rifle calibers did far more. But if the wounds were made by a pistol he couldn't see any difference regardless of caliber. All looked the same.
What does all this mean? I dunno. My thinking is that unless you have a 500 caliber hand cannon it probably doesn't make a whole lot of difference what caliber you use. A 380 to a 45...all will kill a man dead. Use what you are comfortable with and can shoot accurately. Humans for the most part are not hard to put down. Unless on drugs they will usually flee or collapse at being shot.
ShootistPRS
New member
Of all the studies that examined the "one shot stop" by caliber (rather than by number of times a caliber is used) the 357 has always stood out far above other pistol calibers. In at least two of those reports the 357 was equaled in percent of one shot stops only by rifles.
I wonder how much that has to do with the quality of shooter, the muzzle blast, and the actual wound to the perp. I would assume that anyone who has a 357 has at least a certain amount of skill with the gun. Most unskilled folks would choose a much less powerful gun. There are all kinds of things that affect a person being shot. Muzzle blast and flash can make a powerful sub-conscious effect. The blast can cause physical effects within a certain range. There is little doubt about the performance of a 357 but that alone can't account for the difference in reaction of the person who is shot. I carry a 357 but not because of any study or statistical report. I carry it because that is what I have trained with over a 45 year span. I carry it because it is comfortable and I shoot it well. I use only 140 grain JHP bullets at near full magnum loads. It is the round I practice with, competed with, trained with and the one load I have used to hunt with. I know that gun better than any other that I shoot.
I wonder how much that has to do with the quality of shooter, the muzzle blast, and the actual wound to the perp. I would assume that anyone who has a 357 has at least a certain amount of skill with the gun. Most unskilled folks would choose a much less powerful gun. There are all kinds of things that affect a person being shot. Muzzle blast and flash can make a powerful sub-conscious effect. The blast can cause physical effects within a certain range. There is little doubt about the performance of a 357 but that alone can't account for the difference in reaction of the person who is shot. I carry a 357 but not because of any study or statistical report. I carry it because that is what I have trained with over a 45 year span. I carry it because it is comfortable and I shoot it well. I use only 140 grain JHP bullets at near full magnum loads. It is the round I practice with, competed with, trained with and the one load I have used to hunt with. I know that gun better than any other that I shoot.
reynolds357
New member
Do you realize the implications of going to a jury trial without a toxicology report?
I'm not sure what point is trying to be made. If a case was to go to trial why wouldn't they do a tox screen? In such cases it is a fairly routine part of the medical exam.
But given how few jury trials there are in the U.S. anymore your point may be off anyway.
The main thing is, would being able to read the tox screen mean any difference when it came to seeing whether a bullet was effective in doing it's work or not. The answer is no, it wouldn't tell you much. It would just be another piece of random information.
It's the bullet that does the work. It has to be of a good design for the job. It has to penetrate enough and do as much damage to tissue as it can. Any bullet in most any service caliber that can meet the FBIs standard criteria will usually do it's job barring oddities. "It's job" being to penetrate and make the largest hole it can.
A bigger bullet and a more powerful round also can provide an edge. But only if the shooter is capable of handling the gun and round.
No bullet will reliably stop someone if it doesn't hit them in a place that matters. That's where the shooter comes in. The shooter is the most important part.
We can't control a lot of things but we can control our selection of bullet and gun and training.
tipoc
But given how few jury trials there are in the U.S. anymore your point may be off anyway.
The main thing is, would being able to read the tox screen mean any difference when it came to seeing whether a bullet was effective in doing it's work or not. The answer is no, it wouldn't tell you much. It would just be another piece of random information.
It's the bullet that does the work. It has to be of a good design for the job. It has to penetrate enough and do as much damage to tissue as it can. Any bullet in most any service caliber that can meet the FBIs standard criteria will usually do it's job barring oddities. "It's job" being to penetrate and make the largest hole it can.
A bigger bullet and a more powerful round also can provide an edge. But only if the shooter is capable of handling the gun and round.
No bullet will reliably stop someone if it doesn't hit them in a place that matters. That's where the shooter comes in. The shooter is the most important part.
We can't control a lot of things but we can control our selection of bullet and gun and training.
tipoc
When asked, I teach or argue four rules of weapon effectiveness in which I try to encapsulate most of the points raised above particularly by cslinger and MarkCO. Other factors play in into weapon selection but this is for considering weapon effectiveness.
In order of importance and significance:
#1. You gotta hit the target
#2. Where are you hitting it
#3. How many times
#4. With what
So accuracy and capacity is more important than caliber so train. Caliber and bullet type is still a factor in making any hit more damaging as you work your way through the different types of bullet injuries. So shoot the largest gun you can reliably hit with and keep shooting until you get the effective CNS or structural hit and/or the timer runs on the accumulating blood loss or psych out. Effective as in threat ended. Maybe this helps.
In order of importance and significance:
#1. You gotta hit the target
#2. Where are you hitting it
#3. How many times
#4. With what
So accuracy and capacity is more important than caliber so train. Caliber and bullet type is still a factor in making any hit more damaging as you work your way through the different types of bullet injuries. So shoot the largest gun you can reliably hit with and keep shooting until you get the effective CNS or structural hit and/or the timer runs on the accumulating blood loss or psych out. Effective as in threat ended. Maybe this helps.
OldMarksman
Staff
There are meaningful data about wounding effectiveness--about what hits are likely to accomplish what. These data are based on medical evaluation and opinion. From these data we can make determinations regarding penetration requirements.
There are useful data regarding penetration and expansion, based on surrogate testing in standard media. These data can serve in the evaluation of "real world" performance.
There are credible data about the ability of different persons to fire different weapons effectively, and to score an effective number of hits timely that would have a high likelihood of meeting our expectations on wounding effectiveness. That performance parameter is at least as important as terminal ballistics. Part of it is a function of training and practice, but only part. The basic physics is fixed.
Those are the factors on which the FBI Training Division based their recommendation for modern 9mm ammunition for use by agents and their law enforcement partners.
I would place little importance on the importance of nuances in terminal ballistics, as long as the rounds in question meet the needs that one can infer them the aforementioned three factors.
I would place absolutely no credence on observations regarding "one shot stops".
I dont pay a lot of attention to Credible Data for which is the best stopping power in hand guns.
Except to say the biggest you can shoot accurately and fast. If self defense, then small enough to be concealed.
We can all say the 44 mag. would be a good "stopper" but few can shoot it, they are big and would be difficult to conceal effectively.
But lets look at the 44 mag. No one will dispute that something along the lines of a 30-06 rifle round would be more effective as a "stopper".
But if you've ever hunted, or watched hunting shows, you'll know that after a good killing "heart-lung" shot on a deer size animal, will kill it, but often before they die they can and do run 100 yards or more.
How can we say any pistol or even rifle round is a guaranteed stopper.
I've attended a lot of autopsies of victims of gun shots, and studied a lot more. I learned that no bullet will react the same way twice.
I've seen a 22 instantly kill from stomach shot. I've seen a person live after being shot in the chest with a 44.
Forget all the meaningless studies, pick a caliber you can shoot, and if its for SD, a gun that you can conceal.
Get trained, practice, then practice some more.
Except to say the biggest you can shoot accurately and fast. If self defense, then small enough to be concealed.
We can all say the 44 mag. would be a good "stopper" but few can shoot it, they are big and would be difficult to conceal effectively.
But lets look at the 44 mag. No one will dispute that something along the lines of a 30-06 rifle round would be more effective as a "stopper".
But if you've ever hunted, or watched hunting shows, you'll know that after a good killing "heart-lung" shot on a deer size animal, will kill it, but often before they die they can and do run 100 yards or more.
How can we say any pistol or even rifle round is a guaranteed stopper.
I've attended a lot of autopsies of victims of gun shots, and studied a lot more. I learned that no bullet will react the same way twice.
I've seen a 22 instantly kill from stomach shot. I've seen a person live after being shot in the chest with a 44.
Forget all the meaningless studies, pick a caliber you can shoot, and if its for SD, a gun that you can conceal.
Get trained, practice, then practice some more.
I think I have to disagree with this, slightly.
Just having a tox screen to read means that you have a dead body, or a (wounded) perp in custody. This, to me, says that the bullet was effective in doing its PRIMARY job, which is to stop the perp from being able to continue to do perp-ish things that harm people.
A tox screen won't tell you how efficient a bullet was, but it could offer an explanation into other things, tangential to the issue.
Another interesting facet not explored:
X tries to rob Y
Y pulls a gun
X runs away
Number of shots 0
Wounds 0
Disabling shots 0
Yet a gun was used to stop a crime, and isn't that the intent? AFAIK, there are no statistics, no police studies, no caliber evaluations. No books will be sold, no discussions on a web site, no demonstrations in the street, no rants by Handgun Control. No one studies crimes that didn't happen because of a gun.
Jim
X tries to rob Y
Y pulls a gun
X runs away
Number of shots 0
Wounds 0
Disabling shots 0
Yet a gun was used to stop a crime, and isn't that the intent? AFAIK, there are no statistics, no police studies, no caliber evaluations. No books will be sold, no discussions on a web site, no demonstrations in the street, no rants by Handgun Control. No one studies crimes that didn't happen because of a gun.
Jim
I guess the 350 lb. guy was hit with a FMJ 9mm that penetrated well. My guess is the cop who was shot 6 times was hit by fast, light weight hollow points that didn't penetrate sufficiently.
I don't know what to think about the 140 lb guy. Any additional info such as type/weight of bullet, whether the 4 shots had exit wounds, etc?
ShootistPRS
New member
Without knowing what organs were hit, the amount of damage done to them, the persons state of mind, and the psychological and subconscious state these folks were in, the data returned only shows the range of difference in reaction to being shot in these three examples.
In one of my classes a cop discussed a shoot out he had with a man who was shot with damage to his liver, spleen, kidneys, heart and lungs and he didn't stop firing back until the final shot in the head. No drugs were involved and the perp died on the operating table in the hospital. The cop only had a wound to his hand.
In one of my classes a cop discussed a shoot out he had with a man who was shot with damage to his liver, spleen, kidneys, heart and lungs and he didn't stop firing back until the final shot in the head. No drugs were involved and the perp died on the operating table in the hospital. The cop only had a wound to his hand.