I'll never need a gun - Part 6
- Thread starter JustThisGuy
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orionengnr
New member
As far as "reports/statistics" go, there have been numerous reports of cities purposely under-reporting crime statistics (usually to the benefit of the elected officials therein). Certain locales no longer make a police report on a burglary, and others will not make a police report if there is no serious injury. Who decides if the injury is "serious"? The reporting officer, of course. And where does he get his direction? Follow the money.
Some of these cases are so blatant as to make one wonder about the validity of any statistical reports. Suspect local numbers breed suspect national numbers.
Some of these cases are so blatant as to make one wonder about the validity of any statistical reports. Suspect local numbers breed suspect national numbers.
I have most frequently heard and seen it attributed to Samuel Clemens, who knew a thing or two about turning a phrase. Most people know him by his nom de plume...Mark Twain.
Yes, at least enough so that several fellow (airline) employees re-scheduled vacations elsewhere this summer/autumn.
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spanishjames
New member
They're one of the newest trends in crime in the Chicago area, as well as other cities. Until recently, a flash mob was an organized public art performance, now it denotes an organized mob of robbers/attackers. Muggers are typically cowards, and muggers in a group are an even bigger nightmare.
One year you don't know what a flash mob is, and the next it's a news story every week. I'd say that's an uptick.
MrDontPlay
New member
Looks like the state of California got their way this time.
youngunz4life
New member
the heck w/statistics anyways. they really don't matter unless you become a statistic like kurt cobain, jimmy morrison, amy winehouse, etc. I'll keep my gun, and you keep your numbers(I'm sort of just rambling - not even responding to anyone in particular).
and for those that think you'll be living longer:
my direct ancestor was john adams. the guy was president during the 1700's. He was in his nineties when he passed - the only president that beat him was reagan and there is an asterix next to his name due to alzheimers disease
one of the reasons why the stats say wow, we live longer now and back when babe ruth was hustlin and bustlin the average age for death was in the 30's: infant mortality rate. yep, all those infants that died due to lack of meds skewed the numbers; you're still gonna croak about the same time as grandpa or in your 70's, 80's 90's(numbers go down every decade)
and for those that think you'll be living longer:
my direct ancestor was john adams. the guy was president during the 1700's. He was in his nineties when he passed - the only president that beat him was reagan and there is an asterix next to his name due to alzheimers disease
one of the reasons why the stats say wow, we live longer now and back when babe ruth was hustlin and bustlin the average age for death was in the 30's: infant mortality rate. yep, all those infants that died due to lack of meds skewed the numbers; you're still gonna croak about the same time as grandpa or in your 70's, 80's 90's(numbers go down every decade)
I wouldn't put ANY trust in those so called reduced levels of violence according to the statistics. I am a retired doctor and one of my patients was a detective in the town I lived. He told me straight up, don't believe the published crime statistics. They kept two different lists, the true stats and the one that they reported.
He told me that if people knew how bad it really was, there would be vigilantes out in the streets. I just laugh every time I hear that crime is reducing, yeah right. The cities are not publishing the truth since those stats are now public more so than they were in the past and towns and cities compete with other towns for business and new home residents. I suspect that if my town did this, that they are all doing the same thing.
He told me that if people knew how bad it really was, there would be vigilantes out in the streets. I just laugh every time I hear that crime is reducing, yeah right. The cities are not publishing the truth since those stats are now public more so than they were in the past and towns and cities compete with other towns for business and new home residents. I suspect that if my town did this, that they are all doing the same thing.
Crazy88Fingers
New member
“Statistics mean nothing to the individual.”
-Dr. Cox from the TV show Scrubs
The odds may be one in a million that you'll be beaten to death with a baseball bat in a Wal-Mart. But those odds aren't very comforting if you turn out to be the one.
-Dr. Cox from the TV show Scrubs
The odds may be one in a million that you'll be beaten to death with a baseball bat in a Wal-Mart. But those odds aren't very comforting if you turn out to be the one.
MrDontPlay
New member
Besides, 78% of statistics are made up on the spot anyways...
I said before, wrangling statistics are a waste of brain power. anecdotal studies prove that any person here in america can be snatched off of the street, tortured, raped, finally fed to pigs by serial killers. anyone can be attacked and murdered by a random thug. Everyone knows an individual who may at some time be targeted by a homicidal acquaintance, and be caught in the crossfire. Need I even mention that in some areas of mexico, all you have to do is be in the way, and you may wind up kidnapped, tortured, decapitated, and tossed onto a roadside?
It doesn't matter how often, how many why, where or anything else. It happens. A lot. We should prepare, not calculate how safe we are. It is patently foolish to completely ignore these potential dangers. If we follow this suggestion that we take joy in a statistical reversal in "danger" in the world and lessen our guard, it would be just plain stupid.
The tornado in Joplin was a real educational experience regarding human nature, statistics, perception of danger, and sense of personal risk. Think about this.
Very few people die in tornados. Very few. This comforting statistic caused some very stupid people to die, and many more to be injured, because they relied on the false sense of safety that comes with hearing statistics like this.
Take this to the bank: probably as many as 1 in 15 of the times that a tornado warning siren has been sounded in this town, a tornado or similar damaging and potentially lethal storm has struck. People have been injured and/or killed during these events that always came with some warning. There have been killer tornados all over this area, at least one or two every year, that have destroyed houses, killed people, and in three cases now, just about destroyed entire cities. Picher, pierce city, monett, nevada, and now joplin. Picher okla was completely abandoned after the tornado destroyed most of the remaining homes.
So, does it surprise you that many, many people heard the sirens, and ignored them? Kept on mowing their yards, kept on shopping, left their kids alone?
With maybe even a 1 in 10 chance that someone in this city would die in a storm, every time the sirens are sounded, wouldn't you think that EVERY LAST ONE OF OUR BEST AND BRIGHTEST CITIZENS WOULD AT LEAST GO INSIDE AND TURN ON THE RADIO!? I was in my basement, listening to the radio, and found out that my daughter's neighborhood was leveled.
The point to this long and seemingly off topic segue is that I personally was in a tornado in the early 70s. I know dozens of people who were directly affected by them in the past. I know dozens of people who were injured and/or lost homes or property in this one. My employer, my daughter, another coworker, several of my doctors, and so on, all had their homes and or businesses destroyed. not damaged; utterly destroyed. Erased from the earth. One of my friends who is a doctor here lost his practice (housed in the hospital) and his home. Of the 10 or so houses I have occupied here over my lifetime, one was damaged, one completely vanished. yet, think about it, every one of these people were lucky enough to be the 1 in 300,000,000 people who die, are injured, or lose a home to a tornado.
The point is, that over 50 years, I have learned, you take measures. You get in the basement. You carry your gun. You carry your mace, you wear your seat belt, and you put on your shooting glasses. You don't walk around smugly thinking that the chances of trouble are slim, ignoring potential dangers.
Sorry, long and arduous post. I'm tired. It does illustrate the problem of statistics quite well, though. simple measures save lives. relying on a false sense of security fed by optimistic risk assessments kills people every day.
It doesn't matter how often, how many why, where or anything else. It happens. A lot. We should prepare, not calculate how safe we are. It is patently foolish to completely ignore these potential dangers. If we follow this suggestion that we take joy in a statistical reversal in "danger" in the world and lessen our guard, it would be just plain stupid.
The tornado in Joplin was a real educational experience regarding human nature, statistics, perception of danger, and sense of personal risk. Think about this.
Very few people die in tornados. Very few. This comforting statistic caused some very stupid people to die, and many more to be injured, because they relied on the false sense of safety that comes with hearing statistics like this.
Take this to the bank: probably as many as 1 in 15 of the times that a tornado warning siren has been sounded in this town, a tornado or similar damaging and potentially lethal storm has struck. People have been injured and/or killed during these events that always came with some warning. There have been killer tornados all over this area, at least one or two every year, that have destroyed houses, killed people, and in three cases now, just about destroyed entire cities. Picher, pierce city, monett, nevada, and now joplin. Picher okla was completely abandoned after the tornado destroyed most of the remaining homes.
So, does it surprise you that many, many people heard the sirens, and ignored them? Kept on mowing their yards, kept on shopping, left their kids alone?
With maybe even a 1 in 10 chance that someone in this city would die in a storm, every time the sirens are sounded, wouldn't you think that EVERY LAST ONE OF OUR BEST AND BRIGHTEST CITIZENS WOULD AT LEAST GO INSIDE AND TURN ON THE RADIO!? I was in my basement, listening to the radio, and found out that my daughter's neighborhood was leveled.
The point to this long and seemingly off topic segue is that I personally was in a tornado in the early 70s. I know dozens of people who were directly affected by them in the past. I know dozens of people who were injured and/or lost homes or property in this one. My employer, my daughter, another coworker, several of my doctors, and so on, all had their homes and or businesses destroyed. not damaged; utterly destroyed. Erased from the earth. One of my friends who is a doctor here lost his practice (housed in the hospital) and his home. Of the 10 or so houses I have occupied here over my lifetime, one was damaged, one completely vanished. yet, think about it, every one of these people were lucky enough to be the 1 in 300,000,000 people who die, are injured, or lose a home to a tornado.
The point is, that over 50 years, I have learned, you take measures. You get in the basement. You carry your gun. You carry your mace, you wear your seat belt, and you put on your shooting glasses. You don't walk around smugly thinking that the chances of trouble are slim, ignoring potential dangers.
Sorry, long and arduous post. I'm tired. It does illustrate the problem of statistics quite well, though. simple measures save lives. relying on a false sense of security fed by optimistic risk assessments kills people every day.
youngunz4life
New member
good posts,
not to mention statistics like: "america's crime rate has gone down in the last ten yrs" means nothing to the guy living in the so-called 'combat zone' of the city
unless of course you end up being a statistic yourself in your relatively, crimefree community
not to mention statistics like: "america's crime rate has gone down in the last ten yrs" means nothing to the guy living in the so-called 'combat zone' of the city
unless of course you end up being a statistic yourself in your relatively, crimefree community
AND
Scouting today is nothing like it was, even when my son was a scout in the 1980's.
My grandson is in Scouts & I can't even begin to tell you how horrible the attitude is these days towards "being prepared".
They should change the motto to:
"Let's pretend if we ignore it, it will go away".
It wouldn't surprise or shock me one little bit if found out that the Boy Scouts of America was giving money to anti gun groups.
The local chapter here is very much against the idea of private gun ownership.
richardcorey
New member
Two quotes come to mind on the two parts of the situation:
1) Statistics of crime Up/Down - (Quote) FIGURES OFTEN LIE, AND LIARS OFTEN FIGURE !!!
2) Being prepared - (Quote) IF YOU EVER NEED A GUN, YOU WILL NEED IT MORE THAN ANYTHING YOU HAVE EVER NEEDED !!!
Nuff Said...
1) Statistics of crime Up/Down - (Quote) FIGURES OFTEN LIE, AND LIARS OFTEN FIGURE !!!
2) Being prepared - (Quote) IF YOU EVER NEED A GUN, YOU WILL NEED IT MORE THAN ANYTHING YOU HAVE EVER NEEDED !!!
Nuff Said...
WANT A LCR 22LR
New member
" Very few people die in tornados. Very few. This comforting statistic caused some very stupid people to die, and many more to be injured, because they relied on the false sense of safety that comes with hearing statistics like this.
"
Here is another real world example of the above.
In general , auto racing has become worlds safer than in the 60's. This has lead some to be lax in car prep / safety equipment because they feel racing has become safer and they can get away with short cuts.
Those that have modern safety equipment survive crashes uninjured that would otherwise killed someone with 60's level equipment. So, when someone gets lax with safety equipment, they are actually running at 60's levels and relaying on those with the proper safety equipment to make the odds better for those that run 60's level safety! This just can't work.
For this example there are two "stats" , the odds of having a crash and the odds of surviving the crash.
Same goes with the tornado warning. The odds of having a tornado are low, but what are the odds of a unprepared person surviving a tornado when it does occur?
"
Here is another real world example of the above.
In general , auto racing has become worlds safer than in the 60's. This has lead some to be lax in car prep / safety equipment because they feel racing has become safer and they can get away with short cuts.
Those that have modern safety equipment survive crashes uninjured that would otherwise killed someone with 60's level equipment. So, when someone gets lax with safety equipment, they are actually running at 60's levels and relaying on those with the proper safety equipment to make the odds better for those that run 60's level safety! This just can't work.
For this example there are two "stats" , the odds of having a crash and the odds of surviving the crash.
Same goes with the tornado warning. The odds of having a tornado are low, but what are the odds of a unprepared person surviving a tornado when it does occur?
A flash mob is a coordinated gathering where members of the mob seem to suddenly coelesce - seemingly out of nowhere.
This is not the same as a gang of thugs roamign the beach front (which happens).
I talked to a relative who is a Chicago cop and he said that they got the flash mobbing under control by harrassing kids coming in on the train or L. So yes, probably there was racial profiling going on - but when the cops saw 3 or more of them they began to hassle them and unless they could prove they had business downtown - they were told they better turn around and go back from where they came from. A lot of them were held, checked for IDs, and their records were run. I'm betting that most of the punks and thugs who were responsible for the flash mobbing in Chicago in the early summer were not first time offenders. I'm betting that many of them had long juivenile records and maybe even warrants out for them.
I think they had the flash mob thing basically under control by end of summer. That's not to say that crime went away- it's just not flash mob variety.
This is not the same as a gang of thugs roamign the beach front (which happens).
I talked to a relative who is a Chicago cop and he said that they got the flash mobbing under control by harrassing kids coming in on the train or L. So yes, probably there was racial profiling going on - but when the cops saw 3 or more of them they began to hassle them and unless they could prove they had business downtown - they were told they better turn around and go back from where they came from. A lot of them were held, checked for IDs, and their records were run. I'm betting that most of the punks and thugs who were responsible for the flash mobbing in Chicago in the early summer were not first time offenders. I'm betting that many of them had long juivenile records and maybe even warrants out for them.
I think they had the flash mob thing basically under control by end of summer. That's not to say that crime went away- it's just not flash mob variety.
wild cat mccane
New member
So lots of people here don't realize stats is an actual math.
That's great and all (probably need to go back to school. Quantitative analysis is a core class for all bachelor's of science degrees in most schools).
But I still didn't get my ONE peer reviewed paper saying dangerous crime/violent crime/any sort of crime has gone up in the US.
That's great and all (probably need to go back to school. Quantitative analysis is a core class for all bachelor's of science degrees in most schools).
But I still didn't get my ONE peer reviewed paper saying dangerous crime/violent crime/any sort of crime has gone up in the US.
You are so ridiculously off topic from the original post and every post here discussing the original topic that you should be ashamed of yourself.
You're mocking people here who are staying on topic and discussing the realities that stats are misleading and disregard the reality that eventually, there will be one person who will be the unlucky one, and preparation would have prevented it.
you're talking about us as a bunch of uneducated people while you drop names like ebsco and imply that you are a highly educated and credentialed person, when you can't even stay on topic in simple discussion, can't put together a cogent statement, can't do anything but toss in an occasional demand for proof that you are wrong, when the fact is, your assertion has nothing to do with the discussion at hand. Heck, you talk like you don't even use english as a primary language, regarding your earlier post of "peer review" studies.
Once again, don't take offense unless it will help you grow. You strike me as a poor example of a "university student;" a simple mind without a whole lot of substance. What program or affirmative action program put you there?
Since you won't stop this nonsense, heck, there is an ignore function. You have nothing of substance to say here, so I doubt you will in the future. I'd suggest that others block your posts too.
You're mocking people here who are staying on topic and discussing the realities that stats are misleading and disregard the reality that eventually, there will be one person who will be the unlucky one, and preparation would have prevented it.
you're talking about us as a bunch of uneducated people while you drop names like ebsco and imply that you are a highly educated and credentialed person, when you can't even stay on topic in simple discussion, can't put together a cogent statement, can't do anything but toss in an occasional demand for proof that you are wrong, when the fact is, your assertion has nothing to do with the discussion at hand. Heck, you talk like you don't even use english as a primary language, regarding your earlier post of "peer review" studies.
Once again, don't take offense unless it will help you grow. You strike me as a poor example of a "university student;" a simple mind without a whole lot of substance. What program or affirmative action program put you there?
Since you won't stop this nonsense, heck, there is an ignore function. You have nothing of substance to say here, so I doubt you will in the future. I'd suggest that others block your posts too.
wild cat mccane
New member
Wait, did you just say affirmative action put me into my law school and joint MPP program? Only white, non affirmative action students are smart?
If you have never been called a racist in your life, here is your first time.
I am mocking people for spreading lies and having the inability to back up their lies. They are trying to move the issue by attacking me (ad hominem), proving they have nothing to back it up.
If you have never been called a racist in your life, here is your first time.
I am mocking people for spreading lies and having the inability to back up their lies. They are trying to move the issue by attacking me (ad hominem), proving they have nothing to back it up.
Dear wild cat, I am sure you are telling the truth that you couldn't find a single study showing crime going up. Yet, what is the basis for those statistics you are so in love with? Simple, the towns and cities publish that data. Unfortunately, I don't believe that they publish the true numbers since they compete against other towns for business. Like I said, one of my patients told me straight up that our city did not publish the real stats. I don't believe that they are the only city to do that.
If you want to believe those stats, go for it, but the rest of us are skeptical.