I think primer and ammo shortage close to an end!

I don't think it's close to an end yet. We're looking at a situation where the public (by my SWAG) has bought easily a 12 month supply (at last year's rate of demand) in less than 6 months.

The metals and raw chemicals are easy enough to get, but then they have to squeeze through the bottlenecks involved in turning them into components/powder/primers/cartridges. Those bottlenecks have opened as wide as they can for now. Most years ammunition is nowhere near as good a business as it is now so there won't be much new production capacity coming on line. The demand for ammunition is usually pretty predictable from year to year and even for times of the year (like hunting season). Manufacturers anticipate that this level of demand won't last more than a year, possibly two before things return to normal. They don't want to borrow for additional PPE until it's clear that the level of demand has shifted up.

Incidentally: I've noticed that Walmarts in my area always have hunting rifle ammo. This probably won't be a good year for the hunters who shoot one box of shells for practice over the summer and then buy another the week before their hunting trip.
 
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DC has passed legislation and spent money in ways i would have laughed at a year ago. If they turn their eyes towards the guns/ammo and it becomes a legislative free-for-all like banks, auto, carbon etc, who knows what they will settle on?

Back to writing your name down when you buy a box and/or laws limiting purchases(as have been proposed in localities), or permits to store over a certian amount of hazardous/explosive materials for the common good of society? Who can say.

So...until they pass legislation, i will buy a little more, and shoot a little less. No investment, but it already has been a hedge against this shortages prices. The boxes of .380 bought one box at a time over the years at yesterday's prices...aren't hurting me any, as far as i can tell.

Edit: Point being...for me...the shortage won't end until they do whatever and hopefully they do nothing. So when these percieved hoarders dump it at bargain prices(if they ever do), i will get some and it all averages out. But i suspect most will just go to the range and shoot it up like water, i won't think mall ninja is gonna put his case of .45 he paid too much for, on gunbroker for cheap.
 
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I went into my local Wal-mart yesterday early morning to discover that there was actually some ammo on the shelves.

I was talking to the nice older lady behind the counter and she told me that they'd been getting ammo for a little while now but that one of the local gun-shops had been buying them out (whereupon that shop would mark the ammo up and put it on their own shelves).

When the manager found out what was happening he instituted a policy of a 5 box limit per customer per visit to try and stop that nonsense.

According to the counter lady, now the manager is taking heat from some customers for "restricting the right to buy ammo".

So I guess the manager is between a rock and a hard place right now but at least there's a little ammo for the average joe to buy now.
 
That is interesting, i have seen similar but actually bought two boxes of .45 at walmart last week, first i had seen since november.
One walmart about 10 miles down the road, i figured out....had cases and cases under the counter out of view. 9,45,40,380 and so on. People's names on the boxes...turns out they have a "list" taped to the computer monitor, i asked about 380, guy looks under the counter and says, nope...i said what about all those boxes right there?? Lot's of phone numbers from other area codes on that list. Evidently some really take the walmart purchase seriously...i left. If people need it that bad they can have it.
 
I have and try to keep 500rds of ammo for my family for each type of weapon.

Trust me, if I'm ever in a situation where 500 rounds of ammo aint enough, I'll be albe to strip ammo from the dead bodies in the street.
 
I have and try to keep 500rds of ammo for my family for each type of weapon.
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Is that each caliber?

That just does not seem like much. Many of us shoot up 500 rounds in a session.
 
I think it will all blow over after a while and prices will go back down to what they were. People will just be sitting on piles and piles of overpriced ammo. I think we will see alot of ammo for sale in your local paper down the road.
 
I really hope that the ammo shortage is coming to an end. I was discussing this shortage with a friend of mine who shoots a heck of a lot more than I do. He was saying that it was just a matter of time before the ammo companies ramped up production to meet the demand. I believe that some manufactures added another shift and started running production around the clock. I can see prices increasing as copper and fuel prices increase, but short of ammo bans and the hoarding that occurre due to fears of bans, there was no real reason for ammo to have spiked the way it did. With that said, I still plan to maintain a decent stock pile to hedge against future ammo shortages and price hikes. After all, a gun without ammo is just an expensive paper weight!
 
The clerk at Walmart said they had a huge shipment come in the other day and some guy bought $2200 worth the same morning.

As long as that's happenning there will be a shortage. I think that's going to continue happening until the market improves enough for the well off to have another place to invest their money.
 
I don't think any of the big ammo companies are stupid enough to make large expenditures to produce more ammo. Bringing in a few more people is easy but don't expect them to invest in more machinery or facilities.

This bubble will burst and they don't want to be left with a huge mortgage and lower sales. I doubt seriously the government will bail them out.
 
I was talking to the nice older lady behind the counter and she told me that they'd been getting ammo for a little while now but that one of the local gun-shops had been buying them out (whereupon that shop would mark the ammo up and put it on their own shelves).

When the manager found out what was happening he instituted a policy of a 5 box limit per customer per visit to try and stop that nonsense.

According to the counter lady, now the manager is taking heat from some customers for "restricting the right to buy ammo".
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More like restricting the right to be a bonehead. At least we get to watch these idiots dump their 'investments' cheap in a few months. And the manager who put an end to local gunshops buying ammo from Walmart retail only to mark it up again? BRAVO! If more people would step up like this we'd see this fad end faster.

I'm already laughing at a local gun shop that immediately marked every AR/AK/M1A they had up to $1500+ in December, and is still sitting on almost all of them because a competing shop kept normal pricing and sold boatloads of them.:D Now that semi-auto rifles aren't that hard to find they both have the same amount of stock, and guess who made the most money?
 
My favorite place has over 1 million primers on order, still waiting. I hope they arrive soon because I'm getting low on .38's...
 
illbob, I dont have that kind of time. but I do have time to shoot a box (maybe two on the weekend to keep skills fresh. It's easy to replace 50 or 100 rounds of ammo and it keeps the stock fresh.;)
 
No no no!!!!! Not now! I'm dominating the IDPA local matches cause I reload and have lots of 9mm slugs, power, and primers! I wanna stay at the top of the heap. Why now!!!!

Speaking of ammo, I was at Wal-mart Saturday and they actually had some Blazer Brass 9mm and .45s. Even several boxes of .357 Sigs.

And the Blazer 9mm were $8.45 or something like that (not all that bad a price.)

Oh, well, looks like the rest of the gang will catch up with me! Rats.
 
Its not over by a long shot, but I think some of the panic is. people are realizing its not so much you can't get it as you can't get it cheap and conveniently.
 
Keep dreaming...

I was on the phone with Grafs, Powder Valley, and a couple others.

Folks, the end to the shortages is not even on the horizon.

I have had 5K of small pistol, large pistol, and large rifle on order for over 2 months.

Grafs mentioned thats its "spotty" in their shipments and they have backorders for the next 5-6 months.

If you didn't stock up last fall, be prepared for a good long wait on primers. Powder, I can get. But, I am down to my last 2K of primers for the different sizes.

Best of luck to all of you.
 
As far as ramping up production by the manufacturers, its not possible. They are operating at full capacity. Problem is raw materials and supply. It all rolls down hill. Fact of the matter is supply cannot keep up with demand at this pace and in all reality until demand slows, supply cannot catch up. I'm not sure when demand will slow, but no time soon, of that I'm sure. Personally, my on hand stock will keep me shooting at the same rate I have been (1000 rounds per month) thru 2010.;) I haven't stopped buying when I find it at the right prices and don't see myself doing so any time in the near future. I haven't reached that comfort level.:p

What I won't do is pay exorbitant prices but if I find it at the right price...well, I buy it.;)
 
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