How good of a shot are most BG's?

How good??

Armed and Considered Dangerous is a study by Wright and Rossi. This study was done in prisons and the interview people were long term convicts.

Among the subjects was their gun knowledge, training, and when they carried, what they carried, and how they planned to use their guns. Sources of guns and ammo, etc. A long read, but great information.:D
 
Well DTakas, you would be one of those who underestimates your opponent because of a gross generalization that simple can't be counted on to be representative of the sampling of bad guys you are dealing with in a given situation.

281 Quad Cam's point is very good. You have to assume they are excellent shots and treat the situation appropriately. As noted, they may not be good shots, but they can still be lucky shots. So the question of whether or not they are good shots is immaterial.

I think it is short sighted to base a lot of self defense-related issues on the percentages of historical events. Historical events are mutually exclusive from the event you are in. When you encounter a bad guy, it isn't that you have a 95% chance that he is a crappy shot and 5% that he is a good shot as evidenced by the large numbers of bad shot bad guys out there. At best, the odds are 50-50 that he is a good shot. Its binary and it does not matter what type a shot he is relevant to the rest of the bad guy population as you are only dealing with this guy, not the whole population. Whether or not the rest of the bad guy population is good or bad shots has no bearing on his skills. Once again, it is mutually exclusive. So at best for you, odds are 50-50 he is a good shot. At worst, he is 100% a good shot.

As a park ranger commented on grizzly attacks of hunter in our national parks, he said the incidents were quite low, something like one attack for every 250,000 hunters or hunting excursions, but when a grizzly is attacking you it is 100%. In other words, the 1 in 250k sounds good until it is you who is being chomped on by a bear, then the stats don't matter.

In following up with some of the ideas already expressed, the bad guy does not have to be a good shot. He is not encumbered with being bothered by the legal hassles of shooting a bystander. So he is free to spray and pray. As a good guy, you need to be a good shot and you do care if you hit a bystander..

If you want to put faith into the percentages and go with the notion that most bad guys are bad shots, then why not apply the percentages across the board. Chances are that at any given time, you will not be attacked by a bad guy. If you are attacked, chances are you won't have to draw your gun or won't be able to draw your gun. If you are able to draw your gun, chances are you won't have to shoot your gun. So at any given time, the odds are nearly zero that you will need to shoot your gun in self defense, so why carry a gun?

You carry a gun because even though the odds are hugely in your favor, you know that there is still the potential that you may need it. My guess is that the odds are much higher that the bad guy you encounter will be a good shot, even higher if you add in those who end up as lucky shots, than the odds of you having to deploy and shoot your gun.

And what is a good shot? The bad guy may not be a good enough shot to pass the shooting qualifications for a concealed handgun permit, but he can probably hit you 9 times out of 10 at mugging distance and mugging distance is about half the distance or less of the shortest distance used in Texas CHL shooting qualifications (which is 3 yards).
 
281 Quad Cam, great post.

The most vital thing to remember about a BG, IMHO, is that he is indeed a Bad Guy. He has his mind set on violence, robbery, murder, ect. and is most likely experienced at it. He does not care who gets hurt or how bad, as long as its not him. He only cares about carrying out his task, with the least amount of personal risk to self. Make no mistake, this is a very dangerous mindset, and makes for a very dangerous opponent....
 
Proximity negates skill. If a bad guy targets you specifically, he's going to be so close (like in an elevator) that marksmanship is a lesser concern than tactics (and no, I'm not saying marksmanship isn't important). Can you recognize the threat before if gets that close? If it is that close, can you deal with it? Tight, slowly fired groups at 25 yards won't help much in that situation.

Knowing how to punch is only one component of a fist fight. Knowing how to shoot is only one component of a gun fight.
 
The bad guy is the best shot on earth, he reads shooting journals in the bathroom, and practices point shooting coins at 25 yards in the dark.

He does 800 pushups and situps a day, and can run 2 miles in 5 minutes. His idea of a vacation is attending Ranger or SEAL training.

He is armed with the very best equipment, not that he needs it. He is skilled in several martial arts, and has extensive experience with violence. He does not hesitate, he performs.

He is not recognizable, he is ordinary. He makes time in his training for fitting in, and being dismissed by his victims. He has an average, well kept wardrobe and hairstyle. He makes small-talk on elevators. He does not threaten, he does not assault. He always gets the jump on his victims before they know whats coming.

Train for him.... Than you will be ready.
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isnt that the guy from american psycho?


remember the DC sniper he was a BG, and a pretty good shot too.
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not really, he wasnt really much of a sniper, the media just labeled him as one. didnt really do as much damage as he could have either (thank god). most of his victims were just wounded, as i recall
 
He doesn't have to be good enough to kill you, only lucky enough to hit you :)

That said, don't train to some dreamt-up specs of an imaginary BG....train to push your limits and develop your skills.
 
Bad Guys........good Shots

My career has led me to the firing range more frequently than most. I am on the range at least two or three times a week. I instruct and train law enforcement officers both veterans and rookies. The sad thing that I see is that most of them only shoot once or twice a year during a departmental required requalification round. Now I am sure that a lot of the bad guys are shooting much more than that. As most of you will testify when it comes to shooting, practice makes perfect. How many times have I had the priviledge (yeah right) to have a veteran street officer on the range and have to give him basic pointers on shooting? To me that is so sad. I realize this forum is made up of every God fearing, gun toting, red blooded American that has the guts to stand up for our second amendment. But take a second and ask yourself, how many times do I actually go to the range and work on just basic shooting principles. Once maybe twice a month? A couple times a week? Gee maybe I shoud start a thread with this question. The more often you shoot the more instinctive it becomes. Instinct works well in most situations of survival. I also have to opportunity to see the hardest criminals in society once they are imprisioned. I can truthfully say that most of them are quite stupid, timid and scared. I can't see them being any different on the street when they were committing their crimes. Except for the fact that all of their fortitude and feeling of formidability was due to the neatly stacked rounds in the magazine of whatever gun they had just stolen from one of us. So think about the bad guy who is armed. Remember he is also scared and stupid. That is a bad combination against the untrained civilian.
 
From reading reports in the news, it seems like the bad guys are not well trained. Their shooting is slightly worse than that of trained LEOs. At least they dont festoon themselves in 'tactical gear' like SOME folks do. :)
 
There is no difference in the trauma between a well aimed shot and a lucky shot.

I'd prefer to go into it with the mindset that I can't lose. Confidence is key. If you think you might lose, you will lose.

Plus one on what 281 said though. .... "Sweat now or bleed later".
 
There was some study done (maybe the above mentioned book was involved) that I was told about at a class some time ago. The study revealed that many of the deadly force bad guy interviews revealed that many of the bad guys studied disarming techniques, defensive tactics, and fired more rounds than an average officer per year.

The point is to never underestimate your opponent unless you want to lose (and probably die).
 
Some BG's are Good, Some are Lucky, and on the worst day of your life they are Good and Lucky.

When someone is "tossing rounds" at you, do you care if they are good? At that point all that matters is how good your cover is and how well YOU react. Hopefully you can be Good, Lucky, or ---
 
I guess it depends, a BG could be completely green and never fired his weapon ever or the BG could be someone who had military training and is a closet gun nut that could have been an IDPA champ. My worry is the luck of the draw...even a young green BG holding his "piece" sideways can get you with a lucky shot and kill you dead.
 
Consider this:
Michael Carneal, the fourteen-year old boy who walked into a Paducah school and opened fire on a prayer group meeting that was breaking up, never moved his feet during his rampage. He never fired far to the right or left, never far up or down. He simply fired at everything that popped up on his "screen." It is not natural to fire once at each target. The normal, almost universal, response is to fire at a target until it drops and then move on to the next target. But most video games condition participants to fire at each target only once, hitting as many targets as possible, as quickly as possible in order to rack up a high score. It's awful to note that of Michael Carneal's eight shots, he had eight hits, all head and upper torso, three dead and one paralyzed. And this from a kid who, prior to stealing that gun, had never shot a real handgun in his life.

Stop Teaching Our Kids to Kill
Grossman and DeGaetano
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I am a crim def lawyer and...

I currently have a client charged w/ murder. I believe what a BG lacks in training he make ups for w/ the "nothing to live for" mentality.

I think a cop vs BG advantage goes to the cop if he takes his job seriously.

BG vs gun toting citizen the advantage goes to BG. IMO

BG are NOT going to hesitate and consider the consequence of pulling the trigger.

When you are NOT LEO it is VERY different toting a gun. I am NEVER at ease when I am toting a gun. When I see the posts on here by non-LEO I wonder if they REALLY could take out BG and if they do what would be the consequences. Will a district attorney review the facts and decide whether to indict?

It is a VERY complex decision to shoot BG.
 
Most criminals that use weapons decide before the fact they are going to use it. The ranges they fire are very close. So between having already deciding to shoot and close range, their skill level need not be high.

A LEO or civilian with CCW knows they can get in big trouble if things go wrong and someone is hurt, plus they have to react to a criminials overt act. That complicates things hugely.

The typical criminal is not a good shot, they don't go to IPSC or IDPA or tactical classes. Oh, they usually know which end of the gun the bullet shoots out, and at 4 yards or less they don't have to be good anyway.

The main trouble is most good guys are at 'O' of OODA, while the criminal is at 'D' or 'A', as in Decision or Action. Winning while behind the curve is a hard way to win. That is what the color code is about. Always stay in Yellow and keep aware, least you be caught in 'Observe' while the criminal is at 'Action' of the decision making cycle.
 
You also have to take into account the physiological and psychological effects of people under the fight or flight effect.

Here is an bullets excerpted from a class Marines are given
"EFFECTS OF A GUNFIGHT: PHYSICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL

Factors Involved
Combat Mind Set
Leadership
Training Level
Confidence
Personal Experience
Physical Conditioning
Fatigue: Mental/Physical
Camaraderie
Sense of Duty/Honor
Recognizing/ID Threat
Proximity to Gunfight
Intensity of the Gunfight

The Presence of Fear
Fear Effects Everyone Differently:
Three Types of Fear:
Fear of Death
Fear of Killing
Fear of Failure to Perform

Stages of Fear
Basic Fear
Panic
Hysteria/Lock-Up

Controlling Fear
Fear can be Contagious and Progressive
Fear cannot be conquered, but it can be controlled
Redirect Fear by turning it into Anger, Rage, Hatred and Violence.
“When flight is not an option, identifying and hating an enemy has evolutionary value for survival.”

Physical Effects
Going into the Gunfight:
Difficulty Breathing
Heart Rate Goes Up
Adrenaline Starts Pumping

“Calm Breeds Calm, Fear Breeds Fear!”

AT SOME POINT FEAR COULD & SHOULD TURN INTO ANGER!!

Physical Effects
When Shooting Starts:
Chemical Cocktail:
Adrenaline
Cortisol
Dopamine
Blood diverts from extremities to large muscles.
Loss of Dexterity and fine Motor Skills


Tachypsychia:
Eyes Dilate
Tunnel Vision
Auditory Exclusion
Blood Vessels in Ears dilate
Nausea
Time/Space Distortion
Things Slow Down

Physical Effects
Heart Rate:
60/80 BPM is Normal
300 BPM has been recorded
200 BPM has been recorded sustained
115-145 BPM is Optimum Combat Performance
At 145 BPM Complex Motor Skills Go Down
At 175 BPM Gross Motor Skills Go Down

Physical Effects
Heart Rate of 175 BPM
Fore Brain Shuts Down and Mid Brain Takes Over
Mid Brain does only four things: Fight/Flight/Eat/Sex
Mid Brain sends signal for perseverance shooting…shoot until it works (NSR)
All senses but vision shuts down
(Touch, Taste, Smell, Hearing, 6th sense)

Physical Effects
Out of 10 Shooters expect:
9 to have auditory exclusion
2 to hear intensified sounds
8 to move on auto pilot
6 to have higher vision of clarity
1 to experiences paralysis
2 to have memory distortion
2 to experience the world moving in fast motion
4 to experience intrusive/distractive thoughts (family, loved ones)

Effects on the Shooter
Shoot Faster & Less Accurate
Will Think & Perform Tasks with less Accuracy
Experience Some or Complete Memory Loss
Experience Loss of Feeling:
Pain may or may not be felt
Denial
Altered Decision Making Process
Do things never done or been trained to do

Remember
Learn to fight out of intent and will, not out of panic and fear
Order and Simplification are the first steps towards mastery of survival
Focus on Ability, not Vulnerabilities.
Focusing on vulnerabilities will cause fear.
YOU ARE NOT GOING TO RISE TO THE OCCASION, YOU ARE GOING TO DEFAULT TO YOUR LEVEL OF TRAINING!!!
 
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