Gigantic pictures aside, 16 grains of H110 is .7 below MAX for a jacketed 158 grain rifle load. As daft as it sounds, 2 grains isn't that far over max. A different powder lot, test conditions, rifling twist and a bunch of other variables will change the max load.
A chronograph won't help or make any difference.
"...could maybe hide..." Nope. Velocities don't mean a lot as you're not using the exact same components as Hodgdon did. Pressures
"...what they really mean is..." Pistol calibres. Nothing crazier than hunting regs, anywhere. In parts of Ontario, you'd be arrested for using a .357.
Salmoneye's jug is a different powder lot than what was used by Hodgdon or anybody else. Half a grain more now gives 163 fps more velocity with a below current max load.