Gun sales

From everything I can see, the gun industry is in a slump, but just doesn't want to admit it. Admitting this means lower prices and a number of the gun manufacturers, like S&W are still pushing for higher prices. There's LOTS of product out there not getting bought!
 
They make a good point about potential new restrictions not causing people to want a gun, but simply impacting when they buy them. Interest in guns and carry permits has grown and everyday it seems I’m surprised to hear people I never thought had an interest in owning a gun discussing it. Yes, I suspect some is the concern about regulation, but there are other concerns driving these purchases. We see an ever-growing unease about violence in this country whether it comes from the traditional criminal element, religious zealots, political looneys or the mentally ill there is a certain amount of fear among a lot of folks.
 
Well, try going on line and pricing the S&W M&P9 Shield 7+1/8+1 9mm from Buds. They sell it for $329.00 and after rebate for $254.00.

I'd say that somebody is hurting.
 
Demand at brick and mortars are anything but strong where I live. I work at a shop with nearly nonexistent gun sales. We do LOTS of transfers and that's where the activity is. When places like Palmetto State, KyGunCo, GunBuyer, etc., are selling guns far below what your mom and pop store can buy them for BEFORE the rebates, well.....Two stores in my area have went out of business completely and one other refuses to even carry firearms and opts to only do transfers since he can't compete.
 
Well, try going on line and pricing the S&W M&P9 Shield 7+1/8+1 9mm from Buds. They sell it for $329.00 and after rebate for $254.00.

I'd say that somebody is hurting.
Click to expand...
I bought a .45 acp Shield from a local dealer.
All he had in stock was the no safety model.

He called his supplier while I was in the store and asked about the status of ordering one.- a different model..
His supplier said they were on a very spotty basis & had no idea of any possible date one could ship.

Next I had him ask about the new 2.5" M69 - same story, none in stock at the supplier and no idea when.

I went through about a half dozen of my "wants" with the same story - nothing & no idea when.

I'd say off hand, someone is having no trouble at all as far as demand goes.
 
I manufacture gun parts (powder metallurgy), along with parts for a number of other industries. Orders for gun parts are non-existent. There was a real run up of inventories prior to the last election, and manufacturers are still working through those.

In the meantime, enjoy the rebates and lower prices.
 
I will note this non-scientific survey from work, and believe there is a "role reversal" to some degree supporting new gun sales. Since the election:
Most of the hillary supporters who didn't have a gun have purchased or are talking about purchasing a handgun or shotgun. (Not getting into their reasons)
Most of the non-hillary group are already gun owners, and are enjoying lower prices.
If anything gun purchases in this company are probably up slightly.
 
At a retail level, at least in my area, nothing is selling in any meaningful quantities.
ARs, in particular, are absolutely dead.
We've had almost half of the local gun shops fold up within the last year -- most of them since October. When people stopped buying guns, they also stopped buying ammo, holsters, slings, gun cases, extra barrels, magazines, etc...


The only things keeping my preferred LGS in business right now are:
1. Using Gunbroker to part out his stockpile of "junk" guns that he had stored in the back room.
1.a. GB consignments for customers that don't want to set up a seller's account.
2. Transfers - primarily from people like me that find cheap crap on the internet, or have a friend make a crazy low offer to sell their old projects, because they want them to go to a good home.


Today, I did see a new Heritage Rough Rider get sold to another customer. That was the first new firearm sale that I have seen anywhere in town since ... December(?).
(I was trading a Cobra derringer for a Tacticooled-out H&R 58 .30-30 "long range sniper rifle". :D)
 
Quite a few shops have closed up in my area over the last year.
All pretty much lousy shops I hated to go in to. Most of them pretty new, but a few older ones.
 
Here's my theory—some opinion and speculation included. :)

There is a definite supply glut right now, particularly in so-called "tactical" items, with AR stuff at the epicenter.

This has caused large-volume sellers and gunmakers to slash margins to the bone in an effort to move product. It's working—product is moving. But it's only moving at large-volume low-price sellers, and much of what's selling is existing stock being drawn down.

Many independent shops can't compete on price with the big boys, and they're suffering, particularly if they're weighed down with inventory that they don't want (or can't afford) to sell basically at cost. Their woes are compounded by the proliferation of Internet sellers that allow savvy buyers to check prices on the spot using their smartphone. ("Dude, I'm not buying that for $550. Bud's has it for $475 with free shipping, and I know this guy 2 blocks from my house who does $10 transfers!")

I expect that the supply glut will resolve itself over the next few months and prices will creep back up. However, the major mechanism by which this will happen is that gunmakers will cut production as sales run out of steam. (Hal's observations of total non-availability of selective items may be an early indicator of this.)

The major players can weather this. However, some minor players are going to see sales drop below survival level, and they're going to go under.

This is another buying boom that's potentially bad for small shops that depend on new-gun rather than used-gun sales. It's going to be even worse for AR "cottage industry" suppliers.
 
Last edited:
My Son-In-Law works at a major manufacturer of AR15 components. They make everything but the barrels for 6-8 major companies. They went from 54 hours per week pre election, to 40. And now are starting lay-offs. So it appears the AR market has slowed down.
 
When the boom was on during the Obama years, I kept wondering how many more variations of plastic auto pistols and manufacturers can there be, how many manufacturers of ARs can there be and how much aftermarket stuff can be wanted or added on to those rifles?

By now everyone who has wanted the newest gee-whiz-bang plastic pistol or AR has multiple copies with enough extra magazines and hoarded ammo
for a few years.

What will be seen is people trying to sell one or two or three of their multiple purchases and wondering why they can't get any money back on them. Their surplus will just add to the stagnation for some time.

At a pawn shop I frequent I see several rows of those cheaply made/cheaply sold used plastic wonder pistols sitting. But in the 1911/other steel auto/steel revolver section, product moves pretty well. The "old school" market may not be huge but it remains steady and I think healthy.
 
I haven't seen any significant reduction in prices corresponding to the glut of guns and ammo on the market.
 
I don't know if the sales have technically slumped or not.. but Im seeing some of the cheapest prices on guns ever.. even ammo has come down somewhat.

Maybe they're keeping sale numbers up with low prices and rebates to move inventory.. I dunno.. all I know is right now a lot of goods deals are going on.

Snyper said:
It's Summer.
People aren't thinking so much about guns as they will in September.
Click to expand...
Why is that?
I mean me personally I can't say the weather makes a difference as I'll wait for a deal on something and when ever that comes is when I buy, snow or sunshine.

having said that, I really prefer outdoor ranges and I don't like snow on the ground when I go.
 
Snyper said:
It's Summer.
People aren't thinking so much about guns as they will in September.
JoeSixpack said:
Why is that?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
The most popular hunting seasons open in the fall.

That said, the burgeoning number of gun-buying city-dwellers focused on SD/HD has made gun sales less seasonal. Most of the current glut seems to be in "tactical" guns that are intended primarily for this market.
 
Where I am, budget ARs and semi-auto handguns don't seem to be moving; transfers of online orders seem to be the only activity in those categories. However, three-gun competition is popular around here, plus more and more high schools are fielding teams, so there are still sales in those segments.

I don't mean anyone ill, but if your business model depended on panic buying due to real or perceived political threats, and those threats didn't yield any bans or buying restrictions, then your long-term planning was pretty poor. That's not limited to the little guys either. I don't know what the negative impact has been so far, but what were Savage and Springfield thinking, introducing their own AR lines in 2017? How many startups bet the farm on surging demand for plain-vanilla ARs and ended up getting to market just in time for the bottom to fall out? If they were really banking on Hillary Clinton being elected and taking a tough anti-gun stance, they had to be counting on a short-term uptick. (I don't consider four years "long-term" when launching a business, just to be clear.)
 
Why is that?
I mean me personally I can't say the weather makes a difference as I'll wait for a deal on something and when ever that comes is when I buy, snow or sunshine.
Click to expand...
Hunting seasons drive gun sales to a large degree.

People are often spending discretionary money on vacations in Summer when their kids are out of school.

Christmas is also a big time of the year for gun sales.
 
Inazone said:
plus more and more high schools are fielding teams, so there are still sales in those segments.
Click to expand...
Really? I thought that was a relic before my time, How do they get around guns on school property? or do the strictly practice off property?

Inazone said:
I don't mean anyone ill, but if your business model depended on panic buying due to real or perceived political threats, and those threats didn't yield any bans or buying restrictions, then your long-term planning was pretty poor.
~(I don't consider four years "long-term" when launching a business, just to be clear.)
Click to expand...
It's not their fault.. it's become a way of life.
To be clear It's been much longer then 4 years.. I'd say more like 9 going back to the start of the Obama administration.. we've suffered 2 ammo shortages the 2nd of which rim fire still does not seem to have fully recovered from.
I mean I quite litterly have not seen 22lr or 22mag in walmart for like 5 years.. of course they get some but I don't camp walmart.

If you was ill and the doc's had you on morphine for 9 years is it really a surprise you're an addict after they take you off?

Everyone expected more of the same, No one expected Hillary to loose against Trump.

This countries insatiable appetite as consumers drove the industry to the way it is.. right now we're reaping the spoils of a overstuffed system.
It's like a half left over pizza at a party.. everyone's full.. those of us still buying (eating) are getting the rewards, Oh I suspect there is still plenty of money being made though, just not the fat profits the system is use to.

Honestly a lot of this fantastic plastic guns are finally at numbers where I think they should have been all along.. we're just finally getting those material savings that have been pocketed as profits before now.

And hey there's always another high profile shooting a month or two from now to reignite gun debates and spark sales.. don't worry.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top