Given historical precedent, how likely is McCain's victory?

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Saab1911

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I would love for the Republicans to retain power, but how likely is it?

We have an unpopular war that was started on false pretenses. Let's be
honest here.

We have an economy that is not doing so well, and for the first time in
30 years, we have real inflation.

We have an unpopular president.

The usual response of the people to this set of circumstances is to
throw the bums out, and in this case the bums are Republicans.

It happened with the Republicans during the Great Depression.
It happened after Truman.
It happened after Nixon.
It happened to Jimmy Carter.

How big of an upset would be McCain's victory?

The population is upset and want someone to pay. I don't think the war
is nearly as much big a deal as the economy. The war has finally turned
a corner. But the economy touches everybody, whereas the war really
doesn't touch everyone's life.

Cheers,

jae
 
Check the Electoral Map, Jae. I'd say he's got better than even odds.

Currently winning in Ohio and Florida. NOBODY wins without 2 of 3 in PA, FL, OH. Plus the Republican typically gains 13 points in the time from the DNC to election day. If that happens Obama will be toast.
I'm sticking with 65-35 and 35 states for McCain.
I could be wrong but I doubt it.;):rolleyes:
 
Recent Gallup polling data has bHo at 49 or 50%.

At the same point in the campaign back in 1988, Gallup polling data had Dukakis at 55%.

Go check the state-by-state results for Dukakis.

McCain's got a great chance.

possum
 
peetzakilla said:
Check the Electoral Map, Jae. I'd say he's got better than even odds.

Currently winning in Ohio and Florida. NOBODY wins without 2 of 3 in PA, FL, OH. Plus the Republican typically gains 13 points in the time from the DNC to election day. If that happens Obama will be toast.
I'm sticking with 65-35 and 35 states for McCain.
I could be wrong but I doubt it.
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If that happens and I hope it does, how big of an upset will it be?

Rumble in the Jungle?
Miracle on Ice?
That Chinese chick beating three Korean women to get the Archery gold medal? :eek:
 
If that happens and I hope it does, how big of an upset will it be?
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There WILL be riots. Not everywhere, but riots just the same. Mostly, I suspect, by Code Pink and others of their ilk. You know, the peace activists.
 
Originally Posted by peetza
There WILL be riots. Not everywhere, but riots just the same. Mostly, I suspect, by Code Pink and others of their ilk.
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Thankfully, none of them will be packin'
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No, but the police will probably beat them down anyway.
 
Personally, I think Obama doesn't have a chance.

1) He should* be up by HUGE numbers right now. (Given economy, war, etc.)

2) He has no real substance to his rhetoric. People will stand in the booth and go "Do I REALLY see this man as Pres?"

3)Repub usually gains 13 points after DNC

4)McCains VP choice will seriously energize the base

5)McCain does have substance to his rhetoric. He has a long and well understood record.

6)Obamas VP choice energizes no one. He is extreme left, his base is already behind him. Biden can only hurt.
 
If McCain wins, the left wingers are gonna cry foul. They sure will celebrate if its as close as the last 2 elections and Obama wins.

McCain has gotta win
 
Given historical precedent, how likely is McCain's victory?
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Not very likely, really.

1. If elected, he will become the oldest elected president in our history.
2. In order to be elected, he will need a tremendous turn-out from the conservative base (and we know how excited conservatives are about john mccain)
3. McCain has a serious problem because Bob Barr presents a "real" conservative message to voters and will hurt mccain's chances in several key states.

McCain's strategy all along has been to turn his back on conservatives and to court independents and liberals. And all I can say is.... good luck with that.:rolleyes:
 
FireMax said:
2. In order to be elected, he will need a tremendous turn-out from the conservative base (and we know how excited conservatives are about john mccain)

McCain's strategy all along has been to turn his back on conservatives and to court independents and liberals. And all I can say is.... good luck with that.
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But we like Sarah Palin don't we?
 
McCain + Palin is a viable ticket that can win. Will they? I suspect they will but not by much. It is going to be an uphill slog for Republicans from here on out given the demographic momentum and the cultural hegemony of the Left in America. We are going to have to change one or both of those to prevail in the future; either that or form our own nation.
 
Be careful. JuanCarlos will be here shortly to employ his Junior High School
sophistry in accusing you of being a racist for capitalizing BO's middle initial.
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He isn't the only one that will point out the racist and childish nature of such behavior. Some people are real winners. Who's idea was it to start installing data connections in tar paper shacks anyway. :barf:
 
PbP said:
He isn't the only one that will point out the racist and childish nature of such behavior. Some people are real winners. I rue the day they started installing data connections in tar paper shacks.
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tar paper shacks? I gotta write that down.

I have to ask. Why do you support a party that will take all of your guns
away, all 10,000 of them?
 
I have to ask. Why do you support a party that will take all of your guns
away, all 10,000 of them?
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I do not fall prey to scare tactics such as "their a'gonna take yer guns!"

I think the chance of my guns being taken away is a very remote one...while the chances of my friends dying in unnecessary wars, my family loosing their jobs, my friends loosing their healthcare, and my civil rights being eroded are pretty much a done deal and I do not want it to continue.

Anytime anyone resorts to "guns, gays, or gog" in a ploitical argument I shut them out immediately since they obviously have nothing worthwhile to say.
 
He isn't the only one that will point out the racist and childish nature of such behavior.
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Yep, almost as childish as some people still claiming that Palin faked her pregnancy. I'm glad none of the Dems here are wacko enough to do that.
 
Yep, almost as childish as some people still claiming that Palin faked her pregnancy.
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We will see where that ends up. There is way too much evidence in support of it for it to be baseless. I guess there are a hundred different reasons you can come up with why she was not showing one month before giving birth, has no pictures of herself pregnant before the week she supposedly gave birth, and why her daughter missed almost five continuous months of school in the same time frame. I know I tend to look at things with suspicious mind, since that was my job, but this smells fishy to anyone that cares to actually look into it.
 
saab 1911
Originally Posted by FireMax
2. In order to be elected, he will need a tremendous turn-out from the conservative base (and we know how excited conservatives are about john mccain)

McCain's strategy all along has been to turn his back on conservatives and to court independents and liberals. And all I can say is.... good luck with that.
Click to expand...
But we like Sarah Palin don't we?
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Palin seems okay, though I know very little about her really. What I do know is, I might vote for Palin if she were running for Prez, but if she chose McCain for VP, there is no way I would vote for that ticket. McCain is a liberal and I don't vote for liberals.

hkuser
Yep, almost as childish as some people still claiming that Palin faked her pregnancy. I'm glad none of the Dems here are wacko enough to do that.
Click to expand...

Maybe you spoke too soon. :)
 
Saab1911 said:
Be careful. JuanCarlos will be here shortly to employ his Junior High School sophistry in accusing you of being a racist for capitalizing BO's middle initial.
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Juan doesn't need to gripe about it. I will.

Capitalizing only the "H" in Obama's initials, emphasizes the name Hussein. Now I have to ask myself, why do some people do this? I believe it to be of the same sophomoric play, on calling him "Osama." It's to denote a connection to a known terrorist.

Now that is neither racist nor bigoted. But it does display a juvenile attitude that does not reflect well upon adults in general and Responsible Gun Owners in particular. <-- You know, our stated mission and purpose?

I urge everyone to reflect upon the above. Those that continue to display such childish antics will be shown the door. This forum is for adults (age not being a requirement).
 
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