"Is the surge working" is the wrong question.
Yes, when you put more American troops in an area, you get more security in that area. But does that really matter?
When the Iraqi military is almost completely Balkanized along sectarian lines, when the Interior Ministry units are controlled by Shi'ite militias, and are killing Sunni civilians, and there is no trust by any group for any other group, and every bunch of three or more people with at least two guns between them are trying to take over the whole darned country...
I don't think it does.
Why has there been no progress on "national reconciliation?" Because they don't want to reconcile. They (speaking mostly of the large Sunni and Shi'ite factions) want to control the country, and the fewer of the other group that's left, the better.
I guess I've just given up all hope. Not that I had much in the beginning. There will be civil war until somebody wins. Based on the numbers, that's likely to result in a pro-Iranian Shi'ite theocracy, and an independent Kurdistan.
I just don't see any likely outcome in Iraq that would be worth the cost in American tax dollars, let alone the cost in American blood.
It's not a question of will. Wishing and trying really hard aren't enough. You've got to look at the likely results, and make the best choice. I think that our best bet now is to let the Sunnis and Shi'ites fight it out, and make our deals with whoever wins. We only have one strategic interest over there anyway, and we can certainly buy it from people we don't like... we do that now, just ask the Saudis.
Do we really even need to care who wins?
--Shannon