CarbineCaleb
New member
Hypotheses and Occam's razor
Regarding what may be written in a book that is written for mass consumption... I spent 5 minutes on Amazon, and here are some of the books that I found. These are real books, by real authors, and real people buy them and buy into them.
"Black Helicopters over America: Strikeforce for the New World Order"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...f=sr_1_2/103-4464076-3096663?v=glance&s=books
"Virtual Government: CIA Mind Control Operations in America"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...2/103-4464076-3096663?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance
"Blood Lines of the Illuminati"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...=sr_1_21/103-4464076-3096663?v=glance&s=books
... that one may not be obviousm, but the Illimunati are an elite Satanic cult, genetically related, that have been controlling the world for a long time (most of our business, political and civic leaders around the world are actually members of this secret cult). The goal of this cult (being Satanic, after all) is to destroy Chistianity.
"Rule by Secrecy: The Hidden History That Connects the Trilateral Commission, the Freemasons, and the Great Pyramids"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...1/103-4464076-3096663?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance
"Alien Agenda: Investigating the Extraterrestrial Presence Among Us"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...1/103-4464076-3096663?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance
A common refrain in marketing these type of books is (paraphrased): "Find out what the authorities don't want you to know - Dare to find out the truth!"
My point is, just because something is out there in a book, in and of itself lends no creedence to the idea. The goal of publishers is to make money. While it's not important, I don't know if these authors even believe what they write - they, after all, profit by getting people to buy their book, which is motivation enough.
Even if they believe them, critical thinking, if employed suggests that you evaluate any hypothesis critically - FWIW, some questions I like to use are: how much information is carefully cited? what is the reliability of those sources? how much evidence is there? How immediately and how logically do conclusions follow from observations? Are there any important postulates needed to support the hypothesis that are simply asserted, without strong evidence? Any significant (rather than trivial) internal contradictions? What other motivations might the author have for positing this? What other explanations exist for the same phenomenon?
There is a centuries old and very powerful concept when it comes to formulating and more importantly, evaluting hypotheses. It's called Occam's Razor, and was attributed to the 14th century philosopher and logician William of Ockam. Basically, it says that when comparing multiple hypotheses that *may* explain the same observations, the simplest explanation is the best. This is used throughout science and mathematical modeling, and although it's beyond the scope of a forum like this, there are very profound reasons supporting this principle (nothing Satanic though! ).
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_Razor
Regarding what may be written in a book that is written for mass consumption... I spent 5 minutes on Amazon, and here are some of the books that I found. These are real books, by real authors, and real people buy them and buy into them.
"Black Helicopters over America: Strikeforce for the New World Order"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...f=sr_1_2/103-4464076-3096663?v=glance&s=books
"Virtual Government: CIA Mind Control Operations in America"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...2/103-4464076-3096663?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance
"Blood Lines of the Illuminati"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...=sr_1_21/103-4464076-3096663?v=glance&s=books
... that one may not be obviousm, but the Illimunati are an elite Satanic cult, genetically related, that have been controlling the world for a long time (most of our business, political and civic leaders around the world are actually members of this secret cult). The goal of this cult (being Satanic, after all) is to destroy Chistianity.
"Rule by Secrecy: The Hidden History That Connects the Trilateral Commission, the Freemasons, and the Great Pyramids"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...1/103-4464076-3096663?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance
"Alien Agenda: Investigating the Extraterrestrial Presence Among Us"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...1/103-4464076-3096663?_encoding=UTF8&v=glance
A common refrain in marketing these type of books is (paraphrased): "Find out what the authorities don't want you to know - Dare to find out the truth!"
My point is, just because something is out there in a book, in and of itself lends no creedence to the idea. The goal of publishers is to make money. While it's not important, I don't know if these authors even believe what they write - they, after all, profit by getting people to buy their book, which is motivation enough.
Even if they believe them, critical thinking, if employed suggests that you evaluate any hypothesis critically - FWIW, some questions I like to use are: how much information is carefully cited? what is the reliability of those sources? how much evidence is there? How immediately and how logically do conclusions follow from observations? Are there any important postulates needed to support the hypothesis that are simply asserted, without strong evidence? Any significant (rather than trivial) internal contradictions? What other motivations might the author have for positing this? What other explanations exist for the same phenomenon?
There is a centuries old and very powerful concept when it comes to formulating and more importantly, evaluting hypotheses. It's called Occam's Razor, and was attributed to the 14th century philosopher and logician William of Ockam. Basically, it says that when comparing multiple hypotheses that *may* explain the same observations, the simplest explanation is the best. This is used throughout science and mathematical modeling, and although it's beyond the scope of a forum like this, there are very profound reasons supporting this principle (nothing Satanic though! ).
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_Razor