Shadi Khalil
New member
If I'm out and about, one mag in the gun and thats it. Same goes with my revolver. Soemtimes, I'll bring an extra mag but I'll ussually leave it in the car.
Firepower???
- Thread starter drail
- Start date
Playboypenguin
Moderator
One question...how do you get a mag to stay in your revolver? They always fall out of mine.
rounds capacity
The biggest problem with Double naught's coin flip example is not its "simplicity". It is the fact that a coin toss is a binomial distribution, not a normal distribution. With a fair coin we know the probability of each possible outcome on each toss is exactly 0.5
Let's get real; we always use past events to predict likely future events. That's what probability is all about. If I had a choice of two medications to treat the same condition, oh let's say Naproxen or Vioxx, are you saying I should not consider the fact that the FDA issued a warning on Vioxx based on past observed adverse events?
The biggest problem with Double naught's coin flip example is not its "simplicity". It is the fact that a coin toss is a binomial distribution, not a normal distribution. With a fair coin we know the probability of each possible outcome on each toss is exactly 0.5
Let's get real; we always use past events to predict likely future events. That's what probability is all about. If I had a choice of two medications to treat the same condition, oh let's say Naproxen or Vioxx, are you saying I should not consider the fact that the FDA issued a warning on Vioxx based on past observed adverse events?
Boris Bush
Moderator
Firepower? I do not think firepower means amount of rounds, or weapons carried. Brainpower (I think) is firepower. If someone is smart enough to be aware of what is going on around them and avoid a situation then they used the ultimate firepower.
Thats what I am getting from PBPs posts.
That said I just tallied up what I just carried to the store and ouch, I wont even, but. I do carry 2, one for me and one for the wife, and she shoots almost as well as I do......................
Thats what I am getting from PBPs posts.
That said I just tallied up what I just carried to the store and ouch, I wont even, but. I do carry 2, one for me and one for the wife, and she shoots almost as well as I do......................
Double Naught Spy
New member
Actually Doc, due to the fact that it is probability, non-normal distributions of flips can and do occur.
Since you want to get real, your FDA example will not tell you one way or the other whether or not YOU will have the reaction/problem to Vioxx. Your event is independent. They are looking at trends, not individual events when it comes to prediction.
The OPer's gunfight will be a mutually exclusive event.
For a "defensive" situation I think the answer varies too much because of the nature of the question. If I was attacked my a lone individual with a knife. A single stack 45 with a spare mag would be very comforting. If a disaster were to happen and I had to round up my children from school before heading back to the safety of my home, the extra ammo I carry could be needed. After Katrina, when we witness how people can turn into animals at the first sign of trouble, I bought a spare ammo carrier and I routinely carry my M&P 9C with a spare magazine of either 12 or 17 rounds. I doubt I will ever regret that I had too much ammo on me.
Playboypenguin
Moderator
That is when your "ruck gun" and the ammo stored with it comes into play.
Bazooka Joe71
New member
HA, you beat me to it! Well, my saying is slightly different, but the same point.
Playboypenguin
Moderator
Oh yeah, what if you are charged by killer bees and you are so waited down by excess ammo that you cannot get away in time?
Glenn E. Meyer
New member
Learn more stat and probability!
How much ammo would you carry on the Titanic when you had to abandon ship?
Geez!
How much ammo would you carry on the Titanic when you had to abandon ship?
Geez!
firepower
Actually, binomial means that the probability of a "success" remains the same in each trial. It has nothing to do with a normal or Gaussian distribution, that's why there are different statistical tests used for binomial events than for continuous events. But enough of that.
The concept of "probability" is directed toward the relative likelihood of various outcomes. Of course my using Vioxx versus Motrin does not guarantee I am am going to have an adverse event. But if choosing a particular drug increases the likelihood of having a bad outcome compared to an alternative drug, I know which one I am going to take (or prescribe to patients). Your opinion may differ.
Opinions as to appropriate round capacity are personal interpretations of probability estimates. FYI I have attached a portion of a NYPD study of police-perp shootings covering more than 6000 cases.
"NYPD SOP 9 - ANALYSIS OF POLICE COMBAT
Rapid Reloading
The average number of shots fired by individual officers in an armed
confrontation was between two and three rounds. The two to three rounds per
incident remained constant over the years covered by the report. It also
substantiates an earlier study by the L.A.P.D. (1967) which found that 2.6
rounds per encounter were discharged.
The necessity for rapid reloading to prevent death or serious injury was not
a factor in any of the cases examined.
In close range encounters, under 15 feet, it was never reported as necessary
to continue the action.
In 6% of the total cases the officer reported reloading. These involved
cases of pursuit, barricaded persons, and other incidents where the action
was prolonged and the distance exceeded the 25 foot death zone."
Actually, binomial means that the probability of a "success" remains the same in each trial. It has nothing to do with a normal or Gaussian distribution, that's why there are different statistical tests used for binomial events than for continuous events. But enough of that.
The concept of "probability" is directed toward the relative likelihood of various outcomes. Of course my using Vioxx versus Motrin does not guarantee I am am going to have an adverse event. But if choosing a particular drug increases the likelihood of having a bad outcome compared to an alternative drug, I know which one I am going to take (or prescribe to patients). Your opinion may differ.
Opinions as to appropriate round capacity are personal interpretations of probability estimates. FYI I have attached a portion of a NYPD study of police-perp shootings covering more than 6000 cases.
"NYPD SOP 9 - ANALYSIS OF POLICE COMBAT
Rapid Reloading
The average number of shots fired by individual officers in an armed
confrontation was between two and three rounds. The two to three rounds per
incident remained constant over the years covered by the report. It also
substantiates an earlier study by the L.A.P.D. (1967) which found that 2.6
rounds per encounter were discharged.
The necessity for rapid reloading to prevent death or serious injury was not
a factor in any of the cases examined.
In close range encounters, under 15 feet, it was never reported as necessary
to continue the action.
In 6% of the total cases the officer reported reloading. These involved
cases of pursuit, barricaded persons, and other incidents where the action
was prolonged and the distance exceeded the 25 foot death zone."
Double Naught Spy
New member
That is great Doc. So how much ammo will you need in your gunfight?
You are talking about trends. No doubt that whatever amount of ammo you use in your gunfight will not change the trend.
If you want to play the historic probability game for a justification to not carry much ammo, that is fine. However, understand that the history probability game is the same one used by the antis to justify the reason why folks won't need to use guns or why Glen and I have noted that you don't need any ammo at all.
You are talking about trends. No doubt that whatever amount of ammo you use in your gunfight will not change the trend.
If you want to play the historic probability game for a justification to not carry much ammo, that is fine. However, understand that the history probability game is the same one used by the antis to justify the reason why folks won't need to use guns or why Glen and I have noted that you don't need any ammo at all.
Playboypenguin
Moderator
Double N
No one is trying to discredit your belief in being prepared for the worst. We all do that to a certain degree just by carrying a gun that we will most likely never need in the first place.
We are just saying that "most" confrontations that involve a gun are not going to become running gun battles. In the case of such a prolonged battle other factors will also probably come into play such as cover and retreat, arrival of law enforcement, etc.
If we are ever in the mall and the SHTF I will have to either make do with my 10 rounds and then crap my pants or hope that you or somebody equally as prepared in somewhere nearby.
No one is trying to discredit your belief in being prepared for the worst. We all do that to a certain degree just by carrying a gun that we will most likely never need in the first place.
We are just saying that "most" confrontations that involve a gun are not going to become running gun battles. In the case of such a prolonged battle other factors will also probably come into play such as cover and retreat, arrival of law enforcement, etc.
If we are ever in the mall and the SHTF I will have to either make do with my 10 rounds and then crap my pants or hope that you or somebody equally as prepared in somewhere nearby.
Stevie-Ray
New member
I've never felt undergunned with the normal 8 rounds I usually carry. Sometimes 10 with the 9mm, and sometimes I have a BUG, but generally I don't have a reload. In certain situations, like travel to a wilder area, I may take along a reload but not normally. In times of high tensions, I stay home more or take alternate routes to the norm, but never, say, opt for the PLR-16 on a sling rather than the common H&K or Kimber. I suppose that's possible, but I hope to have the sense to be out of here before it ever gets that bad.
If I lived in Detroit proper, I'd carry about 5 reloads.
I suppose that's possible, but I hope to have the sense to be out of here before it ever gets that bad.If I lived in Detroit proper, I'd carry about 5 reloads.
allenomics
New member
Five or more rounds is probably the minimum.
TexasSeaRay
New member
Long time ago, I walked into harm's way every day with nothing more than a Model 19. No speed loaders, no tactical flashlights, tactical knives--all of that would've given me away as a cop pretty quick. And cell phones were barely getting started back then and were only in your car.
Nowadays, I try very hard not to walk ANYWHERE where I think having a gun is not such a bad idea, let alone needing spare magazines and speedloaders and backup guns.
Depending on what I'm in the mood to carry on what day and what I'm wearing, I either have six rounds, eight rounds, or sixteen rounds.
There are two types of situations you can find yourself in when you pull your weapon.
You're either in a defensive situation where you're pulling your weapon in order to terminate an immediate threat to your life or well-being, or that of someone in your immediate proximity. If you're prepared, you shouldn't need more than a couple of rounds.
Or you're in an offensive situation where someone has started shooting, robbing, beating or whatever and you decide to intervene. You damn sure better know what you're doing if decide to intervene.
But it also sounds like some folks are drooling over the prospects of being able to "intervene." I know of two such people right here in the DFW area. One is an acquaintance, who I don't particularly think much of in the first place and who has no idea what my background is. He goes on and on after shooting incidents such as Omaha, VA Tech, etc.
He dreams of being the hero who kills the bad gunman, saves the innocent bystanders and is lavished with respect, praise and admiration by envious gun-owners who wished THEY could've been there and taken the shot.
I don't think this guy goes to the crapper without two guns, six magazines, knives, flashlights and tactical toilet paper.
The other guy I know from one of the ranges I shoot at. He's always lecturing other shooters on "what they're doing wrong." He normally only lectures new/novice shooters. Experienced shooters politely shrug him off, and when he doesn't leave them alone, they tell him to (coitus) off. He runs in place, does pushups, jumping jacks, hits himself in the gut and actually slaps himself --hard--on the head, then grabs his gun and BAM BAM BAM BAM BAM BAM at the targets that have actual photographs of hokey looking actors holding knives.
Then he tells us "that's how REAL combat is."
We ask him what combat he's seen, and he gives us the sly wink and grin and says, "Can't tell you, 'cause we were never there." wink wink.
Damn right he was never there. If he had been, he would sure as hell be able to shoot a lot better.
And, he wouldn't be so anxious to "mix it up," as he calls it, here in the States with some street criminal or store robber or mall shooter.
At a unit reunion several years ago, several of us were talking about what we carry. Buddy of mine put it best, "I only carry what I need to get the job done."
That's pretty much how I feel.
Jeff
Nowadays, I try very hard not to walk ANYWHERE where I think having a gun is not such a bad idea, let alone needing spare magazines and speedloaders and backup guns.
Depending on what I'm in the mood to carry on what day and what I'm wearing, I either have six rounds, eight rounds, or sixteen rounds.
There are two types of situations you can find yourself in when you pull your weapon.
You're either in a defensive situation where you're pulling your weapon in order to terminate an immediate threat to your life or well-being, or that of someone in your immediate proximity. If you're prepared, you shouldn't need more than a couple of rounds.
Or you're in an offensive situation where someone has started shooting, robbing, beating or whatever and you decide to intervene. You damn sure better know what you're doing if decide to intervene.
But it also sounds like some folks are drooling over the prospects of being able to "intervene." I know of two such people right here in the DFW area. One is an acquaintance, who I don't particularly think much of in the first place and who has no idea what my background is. He goes on and on after shooting incidents such as Omaha, VA Tech, etc.
He dreams of being the hero who kills the bad gunman, saves the innocent bystanders and is lavished with respect, praise and admiration by envious gun-owners who wished THEY could've been there and taken the shot.
I don't think this guy goes to the crapper without two guns, six magazines, knives, flashlights and tactical toilet paper.
The other guy I know from one of the ranges I shoot at. He's always lecturing other shooters on "what they're doing wrong." He normally only lectures new/novice shooters. Experienced shooters politely shrug him off, and when he doesn't leave them alone, they tell him to (coitus) off. He runs in place, does pushups, jumping jacks, hits himself in the gut and actually slaps himself --hard--on the head, then grabs his gun and BAM BAM BAM BAM BAM BAM at the targets that have actual photographs of hokey looking actors holding knives.
Then he tells us "that's how REAL combat is."
We ask him what combat he's seen, and he gives us the sly wink and grin and says, "Can't tell you, 'cause we were never there." wink wink.
Damn right he was never there. If he had been, he would sure as hell be able to shoot a lot better.
And, he wouldn't be so anxious to "mix it up," as he calls it, here in the States with some street criminal or store robber or mall shooter.
At a unit reunion several years ago, several of us were talking about what we carry. Buddy of mine put it best, "I only carry what I need to get the job done."
That's pretty much how I feel.
Jeff
Double Naught Spy
New member
A firearms instructor from TDSA (Tulsa) told me that I will fight like I train and so should train like I fight. I told him I could not pee that much in a range session.
Historical trends are heuristically interesting, insightful, but that is about it.
Playboypenguin
Moderator
I could not train the way I fight if I wanted to either. There are seldom any obese women or baby strollers at the range that I can hide behind.
