Some interesting points in the op, which seem to make sense at first glance, but a bit of careful thought points out where some of the are...less than fully factually inclusive.
(I'll define "vital" as a large artery, heart, spine or brain.)
1. The bullet expands and comes in contact with a vital. (A mid to high powered cartridge (1000fps+), with excellent expansion design)
2. The bullet expands and doesn't penetrate deep enough to come in contact with a vital. (A low to mid powered cartridge (1000fps-), with excellent expansion design.)
3. The bullet doesn't expand and misses a vital due to the bullets smaller diameter. ( A mid powered cartridge (1000fps).)
4. The bullet doesn't expand and hits a vital due to accurate shot placement.
( A mid powered cartridge (1000fps).)
5. The bullet over penetrates and potentially causes collateral damage. ( A mid to high powered cartridge (1000fps+).)
Seems sensible, but reality is that any of the possible outcomes is possible with any cartridge, low, medium or high velocity. More likely with some, but possible with all. (and I think #3, is particularly misleading, as written, implying that the bullet missing a vital has anything to do with the power level of the round)
Studies are great things, and sometimes actually deliver useful information. But drawing correct conclusions, even from fully accurate data is tricky. One can determine general trends, but general trends are just that, general. You can find cases where everything failed. You can find cases where everything worked. What you cannot find is any way of knowing in advance if the shooting you get involved in will follow the general rule, or be an exception.
A mid powered hollow point could teeter between no expansion and under-penetration
or it could do something else, like completely penetrate....
A mid powered full metal jacket could teeter between missed vitals and over-penetration.
How big a part does FMJ construction play in "missing a vital" anyway? I think that would be a shooter function, not the bullet.
It seems that a non-expanding bullet in a high powered cartridge would be the most reliable. Relying only on the shooters ability.
That would be military FMJ rifle ammo, widely recognized for its stopping power, right?
And doesn't everything rely on the shooter's ability, as a baseline?
1. FPS alone does not tell you how much damage will be caused but it can tell you if the bullet will expand.
Nice to know, I suppose, but really only tells you if you should expect the bullet to expand. Real world variables in addition to the FPS determine if the bullet will perform as expected.
2. A 124 grain FMJ 9mm fired from a barrel which delivers 1,000+ fps should provide adequate penetration to hit a vital with the chance of over penetration
Which, incidently is the original loading for the 9mm Luger. A 124grFMJ @ 1050fps (later increased to 1100fps).
Stopping power discussions are certainly more informative than ones about angels dancing on the heads of pins, but putting all one's faith in any theory being the absolute truth every single time doesn't seem to square with observed real world results. There are no magic bullets.....