EOTWAWKI scenarios and the survivability of mankind

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The collapse of the oil economy will be gradual (though perhaps painful) but in the end we'll find something to fill in the gaps. When the SHTF we always come through. And when oil hits $100 a barrel suddenly many other ways of generating power will seem worthwhile.
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Its already collapsing.

Alternatives are already here. They just arent widespread yet.

Im more worried about the asteroids. The japanese just sent a probe to one, bet they are putting a motor on it to send it to hit us!

WildswmboisinscrutableAlaska
 
dont worry WA, the survivors of the apocalypse will only be wanting those with SUPERIOR genetics to propogate the species. now between you and me, whose genetics are better? yours with your poor eyesight, bad heart, and shape like an upside down top? or svelte me, with excellent eyesight, good internals, and built like a brickhouse?

spacemanifyoubegnicelyimighttossyousomesloppysecondsspiff
 
Um, Spaceman. In the long term and early history of Man WA's figure was more prone to survival than some ripped dude with no body fat and no staying power. You sir are toast or in some cases dinner. :D
 
The japanese just sent a probe to one, bet they are putting a motor on it to send it to hit us!
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Probably targeted at Pearl Harbor?

In terms of alternative fuels ... we'll always have a need for oil for plastics and etc. But no matter what we do there will be enough of a supply for minimal needs for many, many generations -- certainly long after anyone reading this is long since turned to dust. It may be expensive oil pumped in small amounts from fairly exhausted fields and small new finds very deep in the Earth, but it will be there. And there is also oil shale and oil sands in Canada that have HUGE amounts of oil (the problem is getting them out, which takes almost as much energy as you get back). You can also pretty much make oil from coal with sufficient energy intensive processing, and we do have lots of coal.

So ... when the oil taps begin to dry up or just can't produce enough for developing countries, the other technologies, such as solar/fission/fusion etc. (pretty good list above) will take off. There are also some other ones that are a little too "science fiction" at this time to mention, but which serious scientists are at least considering as possibilities. And when the US gets desperate intelligent people come out of the woodwork to solve the problems (mostly because they get rich for doing it).

You're right, though -- nothing beats oil/gas for easily transportable energy. I read that all the batteries in an electric car have about the same energy potential as like a gallon of real gasoline! And the batteries wear out and are full of nasty acids and chemicals. AND you have to charge them, which means burning fuel someplace to make electricity (unless you have an alternative source) and the process of making electricity to charge the batteries causes a lot of energy loss.

An interesting thing -- if you look around on the internet you'll find there is a growing acceptance that oil may come from non-biogenic sources (i.e. instead of decayig dinosaurs it may be left over hydrocarbons from the formation of the Earth). If this latter is true (and I personally believe it, but the science can't prove things either way) there may be massive quantities of oil deeper in the earth.

Of course ... if theories the earth is warming from greenhouse gasses like C02 are true (and the science is still out on that one, as well) we just can't afford to keep burning huge amounts of oil no matter how much we find.

So again ... don't panic. Humans, and especially Americans, always find a way to get by.

If you don't have to re-roof your house for another 10 years, you may be re-roofing it with shingles that are wired together and are also cheaply printed photovoltaic cells.
 
You forgot one key ingredient to stockpiling women.... you'll also need some lambskins sos you don't have all those extra crying mouths to feed!

Ever wonder why steam was replaced by coal engines, and coal replaced by oil/gas? Because steam and coal engines just don't cut it and coal creates alot of pollution... not that one would care much, but it doesn't burn cleanly.

Alternative energies are great for running small appliances or small cars, but they are worthless when it comes to the heavy lifting of earth movers, jet planes, semi-trucks, and other things that are the backbone of the economy.

The world financial markets don't react when more or less solar power is available; they immediately move in concert with the price of oil. If you have investments in the market, this should concern you very very much. The tendency for the stock markets to go down as the price of oil goes up is an evident trend. Think about the companies for which you own stock or your mutual fund owns stock.... Airlines. Two of them just filed Chapter 11 due to rising fuel costs. Think that's good for your stock? Computer chip makers. Rising costs of chip makers reduces their profits and your stock portfolio. The auto makers Ford and GM. Coincidence they are busting their butts to sell some autos in the last few quarters. They are losing ground bigtime and trimming their wastebands because less people are buying less autos than ever before, or at least buying small autos that are less profitable. It goes on and on and on. When people are spending all their money on oil products and inelastic goods, their elastic capital errodes and so does the value and stock price of those companies that aren't necessities.

Be scared. Be very very scared! :D
 
The earth will never run completely dry of oil. The point is that oil at $900 a barrel is just not available to anyone but the most powerful nations and the elitest people of the world. We'll still see vehicles, planes, etc. They'll just be the familiar military vehicles and planes.

Ask YOURSELF, at what point will gas have to reach when you can no longer afford a vehicle for pleasure; Is it $5 a gallon? How about $10? How about $20. Then ask yourself at what point will you no longer be able to afford gas period. Crazy. The price of oil was about $20 (give or take) a barrel in the late 90's. It's now tipped the scales near 70. So, it has trippled in the last 5-6 years!

And, if you individually can't buy gas, then why are you keeping your auto? But by then, everyone will have concluded the same thing AND the price of your $20,000 vehicle will be nearly worthless, meaning that you'll take a huge hit against your assets. Imagine that muliplied by every auto owning household in America. The values of anything that uses gasoline will plummet due to overnight obsolecense, and the carpet will be pulled out from under us.

Will this happen tomorrow or in 10 years or 30 years is the real question. Many experts (not just my opinion) believe that we have reached the peak.
 
Sounds like leadcounsel needs to start buying the longest crude oil futures he can lay his hands on. If the earth runs out of oil in his lifetime, he will be so rich from cashing in on his futures contracts that he will be able to pay for $900-a-barrel oil.

GCaguywhomissedbuyinggmat10in198770
 
There are many dark scenarios for the short term. But for the long term things always get worked out.

Alternative energies are great for running small appliances or small cars, but they are worthless when it comes to the heavy lifting of earth movers, jet planes, semi-trucks, and other things that are the backbone of the economy.
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Not really. Take diesel train locomotives, for instance. The diesel engines are actually generators, and the motors that drive the train forward are electric. So a diesel locomotive could run on an alternative power source if a small enough one was available (and like has been talked about, current technologies just don't fit the bill). But, you could run it like in town trains, off of wires along the track. Or from highly focused microwave radiation beamed down from orbiting satelites with huge solar arrays -- again, not stuff we can do now, but if the SHTF the smart guys think things up.

Just like diesel locomotives, any of the big systems you are talking about could be run off of electricity. We just have to figure out a way to generate it.

In terms of remaining oil ... just recently a large discovery was made in Utah over an area thought to be dry. A small company used some new technology and found what could be a billion barrels of oil (or less, no way to know until we start producing more). A billion barrels isn't a lot for the whole world, but it's pretty damn good. And Iraq has large areas that are believed to have oil but have not been fully explored. If a large percentage of these areas pan out, many geologists say that Iraq will have more oil than Saudi Arabia.

And with an alternative means of generating/storing electricity on things like big earth movers (which doesn't exit yet) we can spend the necessary energy to develop the canadian oil sands or US oil shale. That will provide the energy for planes and other things that can't be made to run on whatever alternative energy sources we discover/develop.

As for the stock market ... if you uninvest in the stock market and get 4% in bonds, when oil does go wildly up, bringing at least temporary runaway inflation, your $$ will be toilet paper when it's over.

So don't worry about it. We have decades before lack of oil really causes a problem -- possibly many decades -- and at some point we'll just have to start drilling the West Coast and other places "off limits" due to legislation.
 
Leadcounsel,

First of all I'm not a Mormon, or Latter Day Saint as they prefer to be called. So this is an outsider's viewpoint of their culture, based in large part on having been put in a 12 man group with several of them on a military survival camp. They taught me a lot about their culture and their philosphy.

The Mormons are a religious group which settled in the West and Northwest after severe religious persecution in the mid 1800's. So they know a lot about how to maintain a viable society in adverse circumstances. They recommend that all their people keep a year's supply of food on hand and maintain sufficient skills to last for a year of hardship. They have a cohesive community which is self repairing and self reliant and their members are highly altruistic in their behavior toward outsiders as well as themselves.

One could do well by patterning their TEOTWAWKI survival plan after Mormon culture.
 
...if the world ends..it ends on God's expectation and it is not another passing chapter of history but the end of all nations....sometimes referred to as a the cleansing of the earth....all of your so-called preparations will be in vain if you are on the wrong side...nothing will save those people from death once their fate is sealed and things are in motion....
 
leadcounsel

Ever wonder why steam was replaced by coal engines, and coal replaced by oil/gas? Because steam and coal engines just don't cut it and coal creates alot of pollution... not that one would care much, but it doesn't burn cleanly.
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Well, since pollution isn't real healthy, I think a lot of people actually do care. Most of those who don't, don't understand the connection between pollution and their own health. I don't know too much about the process, but I believe that coal can be transformed to shorter chain hydrocarbons ("oil"), so although it's finite as well, we are not actually stuck with using the coal as coal...

Alternative energies are great for running small appliances or small cars, but they are worthless when it comes to the heavy lifting of earth movers, jet planes, semi-trucks, and other things that are the backbone of the economy.
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Well... no offense, but I think you are suffering from a lack of imagination. Just because you don't see these things done now, doesn't mean there is any law of physics that prevents it. For example, hydrogen may be burned very simply and cleanly to yield harnessable energy, without any complex equipment. It's also a dense form of energy storage though. Now, hydrogen needs to be produced from expenditure of some other form of energy, but that doesn't need to happen on board your semitruck. The hydrogen can be generated economically where the output of electrical generation is used. Similarly, hydrocarbon fuels can be generated through biosynthetic routes, as I mentioned above.

Airlines. Two of them just filed Chapter 11 due to rising fuel costs.
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Well, yes and no. There are still plenty of airlines out there. It's just that those that were ineffecient and on the ropes to begin with may have been pushed over the edge by the surge in fuel costs. In general, the airline industry isn't going anywhere.

The auto makers Ford and GM. Coincidence they are busting their butts to sell some autos in the last few quarters. They are losing ground bigtime and trimming their wastebands because less people are buying less autos than ever before, or at least buying small autos that are less profitable.
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At least in the short term, oil prices may recede, but there is no doubt that in the long run they will have to rise as supplies become tighter due to reserves being drawn down eventually. The Americans shifted production to where the fattest profits were - gas guzzlers... and now are being hurt for that. This market stress should encourage them to diversify their product offerings better, anyway, and to consider the big picture a little more.

And, if you individually can't buy gas, then why are you keeping your auto? But by then, everyone will have concluded the same thing AND the price of your $20,000 vehicle will be nearly worthless, meaning that you'll take a huge hit against your assets. Imagine that muliplied by every auto owning household in America. The values of anything that uses gasoline will plummet due to overnight obsolecense, and the carpet will be pulled out from under us.
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Don't panic, I think you're getting a little ahead of reality. Try reading the information at the Department of Energy and the US Geological Survey. Yes, oil is a finite resource. Yes, it will probably be for practical purposes gone for bulk burning by the masses as cheap fuel within this century. The estimates I saw (at the above resources) seemed to indicate that the oil production should peak and begin to decline in 30-50 years. Not yesterday. Of course, even before then, if demand continues to rise faster than supply does, the price can continue to rise. To some extent, this will be self-correcting over a matter of years though. People will buy more fuel efficient vehicles. Manufacturers will respond to the demand and offer more fuel efficient vehicles. Using less energy is good all around. If you were hungry enough to buy an 8000lb, 11 mpg, Ford Behemoth the last time, you might like to take a different choice the next time, at least if you are a careful person.

You forgot one key ingredient to stockpiling women.... you'll also need some lambskins sos you don't have all those extra crying mouths to feed!
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Are you sure that you are a leadcounsel, leadcounsel? :rolleyes:
 
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Id say the closest thing right now to the world ending would be Yellowstone popping her top. Theres been a rise in activity over the last year or two too :rolleyes: . Id be somewhat ok here where I live. At least until we all freeze from the ice age caused by the dust blocking out the sun. Then again I short 4-5 hour trip may put me into a safety area :P.

Meteors is nothign worth worrying about. Its not like we have a giant .44 Mag to shoot it out of the sky and a nuke would just break it up and cause more damage. So what can I say? Live life normally. Don't worry about the end of the world till it comes.

Now when it comes to having our empire fall... welll..... that ill have to save for another time.. :rolleyes:
 
...if the world ends..it ends on God's expectation and it is not another passing chapter of history but the end of all nations....sometimes referred to as a the cleansing of the earth....all of your so-called preparations will be in vain if you are on the wrong side...nothing will save those people from death once their fate is sealed and things are in motion....
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Yep... That's why my BOB has a pocket Bible... :D

Wolfe
 
Only a question of time.....

before this thread devolved into a discussion of saving souls and Revelations.

Unfortunately it has nothing to do with Firearms or the Bill of Rights.
Rich
 
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