Editorial on Ammo Shortage

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Prof Young

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In the March 2021 issue of Midwest Fish and Game, Editorial Director Adam Heggenstaller writes, in part, about a phone call to Hornady with queries about the ammo shortage. He was assured by Hornady that they were working at full capacity and were even up 1/3 over last year's production.

Also saw an on-line video from the CEO of Berry's Bullets. They too are cranking it out as fast as they can.

I think we are the ammo shortage. We are buying it and stashing it as fast as we can. I know this shortage will affect my future buying habits just as the Obama shortage did. (That's why my ammo closet is still looking good.)

Life is good
Prof Young
 
Prof Young said:
Also saw an on-line video from the CEO of Berry's Bullets. They too are cranking it out as fast as they can.
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This video from Berry's?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QatEZ4UrDx0

The guy who gave the pep talk at the end isn't the CEO. That's Justin Taylor, the Sales and Marketing Manager. In the "blurb" for the video they promise to explain where all the bullets are going -- which is an important question, since they have virtually NO bullets available on their web site.

Berry's said:
After reading through some feedback, our sales & marketing manager will explain where our bullets are going and why we can't keep up with demand.
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I watched the video -- twice. He did NOT explain -- not in any way, shape, or form -- where all the bullets are going. He said they are making more than ever, but he didn't explain why there are none available on their site, and haven't been any for several months.

Frankly, if they don't get their act together soon, they are going to lose me as a customer.
 
They're shipping out to vendors I guess. I just bought some Berry's plated round nose 9mm on MidwayUSA a few weeks ago. Had to set up an in-stock notification to snag them, but I got them.
 
Nothing new to report here. As long as people frantically continue to sit and stare at their laptop with items in their shopping cart ready to checkout at a moments notice of an in stock item the panic will never end. Or the other panic buying term I always read is "I bought it just because".
 
Road Clam said:
Nothing new to report here. As long as people frantically continue to sit and stare at their laptop with items in their shopping cart ready to checkout at a moments notice of an in stock item the panic will never end.
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True ... or not true ... or maybe ... or maybe not.

It all depends. If a person routinely buys (make that past tense) 1,000 or 5,000 or 10,000 rounds every six months, and has done that routinely for the past 'X' years, then (even though that may sound like a lot of ammunition) that person waiting to place an order for any amount up to what he/she usually buys is not contributing to the shortage. On the other hand, if someone who normally buys 50 or 100 rounds every six months is now buying 1,000 or 5,000 or 10,000 rounds per month, then yes ... that would contribute to the shortage.

Let's face it -- there were a LOT of new gun buyers in 2020, and all those new gun buyers need ammunition to shoot. As of early November the NSSF figures showed 6.9 MILLION guns sold to first-time buyer in 2020. If every one of those 6.9 million new owners bought just 50 rounds (one box) per month for six months, that alone would add up to 2,070,000,000 rounds. Make it 100 rounds per month for six months and you're at 4,140,000,000.

That's right -- we're talking 2 BILLION to 4 BILLION rounds just to give the newbies something to practice with. That's in addition to however much the existing population of gun owners would normally buy over the course of the same time period. Turning again to NSSF figures, they reported that the industry produced 8.1 billion rounds for 2017, and 8.7 billion rounds for 2018.

What does that mean? It means that new shooters could account for DOUBLE the ammunition consumption over the course of a year. Of course, they didn't all buy their guns on January 2, 2020, which is why I used six months as a time frame. Even at that, if all those new owners bought just 100 rounds per month for six months -- that's 50 percent of the TOTAL annual production for two prior years.

No wonder there's a shortage.
 
There are many new gun buyers, that is a fact. But the question is, how many are new shooters? New gun owners and new gun shooters are two different things.

I think we are in another Obama era hoarding situation and that is driving demand and costs upward more than any other market force.
 
I agree with all of you with the "new shooters" comments. This current panic unlike the past panics since 2012 has prompted 7 million+ NEW gun owners, and the serious problem is there is NOT a relatively proportionate increase in ammo production. So basically too many guns , too little ammo .
 
I just called Hornady a couple of days ago to try to get some background on the shortage, and this is what they told me: Runs like this are virtually automatic with a election cycles, but this one is unique in that it's also coupled with the "pandemic apocalypse scare" (my words, not exactly their's). In addition to unprecedented demand from existing gun owners, there are also 20 million new owners added to that pool since last March. They are still trying to catch up with orders that go back as far as last March.
 
I'm not one to panic buy, but I am trying to maintain a normal pace at the hobby. Recently got into .300 AAC/Blackout, and had nothing but primers and brass. Diving out into the fray right now to find components has been tricky; hate that I have to compete on the clock just to get what I'm looking for, because I have an honest need. 147gr 9mm to play with some subsonic 9mm.. 220gr 30 cal pills to play with the .300 blk.. and powder (oh my). I've consciously NOT bought a big pile of whatever, because there's others in the same boat, and I don't shoot "a whole lot". I recently bid on some small pistol primers on an auction site and set my maximum bid at a number that I thought I could stomach (with hesitation), and got outbid immediately. They're up to $110(?) per 1k? Nah man. I ain't doing that.
 
stagpanther said:
I just called Hornady a couple of days ago to try to get some background on the shortage, and this is what they told me: Runs like this are virtually automatic with a election cycles, but this one is unique in that it's also coupled with the "pandemic apocalypse scare" (my words, not exactly their's). In addition to unprecedented demand from existing gun owners, there are also 20 million new owners added to that pool since last March. They are still trying to catch up with orders that go back as far as last March.
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There is another factor at work, which was mentioned specifically by Pete Brownell when he was interviewed on a podcast several weeks ago, and which some of the ammo makers will admit to if pressed but mostly prefer not to mention. That is that when the last panic came around many of the ammo manufacturers invested in tooling up to expand capacity. Then Trump was elected President and the industry was hit with the "Trump slump." They had all that new capacity, and suddently demand fell off so they didn't need the capacity.

So, this time around, the ammo makers have basically decided to ride it out. They'll run more shifts, because if/when demand normalizes they can lay off workers, but they aren't spending money on expensive new equipment and putting additions on their factories to house expensive new equipment. New equipment and new buildings are hard costs that have to be paid off whether or not there's a boom market, so one can't blame them for not wanting to get caught in that cycle again. So they are doing the best they can without incurring the expense of adding machinery and square footage. Unfortunately for us, that's just good business.
 
Kreyzhorse said:
There are many new gun buyers, that is a fact. But the question is, how many are new shooters? New gun owners and new gun shooters are two different things.

I think we are in another Obama era hoarding situation and that is driving demand and costs upward more than any other market force.
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7,000,000 new gun owners just buying two 50 round boxes of ammo...
Equals about 14,000,000 boxes, or 700,000,000 cartridges
That alone is a MASSIVE amount of the market
Roughly 14,000,000 cartridges per week
 
I think we are the ammo shortage. We are buying it and stashing it as fast as we can
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This is pretty much it, plus the millions of new/first-time buyers. I stopped buying ammo about 4-5 months ago once I was able to get some. Now, I'm just riding this one out. Not saying I wouldn't buy ammo at my LGS if they had some for a decent price, but at current online prices no way.
 
So, this time around, the ammo makers have basically decided to ride it out. They'll run more shifts, because if/when demand normalizes they can lay off workers, but they aren't spending money on expensive new equipment and putting additions on their factories to house expensive new equipment. New equipment and new buildings are hard costs that have to be paid off whether or not there's a boom market, so one can't blame them for not wanting to get caught in that cycle again. So they are doing the best they can without incurring the expense of adding machinery and square footage. Unfortunately for us, that's just good business.
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That is only a part of the picture--this makes it sound like the only factor is return on investment when demand slacks off. The other big factor is that even if they had the additional equipment--they still don't have enough trained manpower to ramp up production quickly.
 
Self-fulfilling prophecy; create a shortage to avoid a shortage.
I watched a video by a guy who drove around to stores, where he'd find a line of people, some sitting in camp chairs, as if it were a line to buy tickets for the Beatles reunion, waiting for the store to open so they could buy every round available.
If nobody did that, everyone would have ammo.

One guy posted on a forum I frequent, "I have three lifetimes' worth of ammo, should I sell some?"
Maybe trade some for TP, so you and your foil-hat buddy can both be prepared?
 
Aguila Blanca said:
There is another factor at work, which was mentioned specifically by Pete Brownell when he was interviewed on a podcast several weeks ago, and which some of the ammo makers will admit to if pressed but mostly prefer not to mention. That is that when the last panic came around many of the ammo manufacturers invested in tooling up to expand capacity. Then Trump was elected President and the industry was hit with the "Trump slump." They had all that new capacity, and suddently demand fell off so they didn't need the capacity.

So, this time around, the ammo makers have basically decided to ride it out. They'll run more shifts, because if/when demand normalizes they can lay off workers, but they aren't spending money on expensive new equipment and putting additions on their factories to house expensive new equipment. New equipment and new buildings are hard costs that have to be paid off whether or not there's a boom market, so one can't blame them for not wanting to get caught in that cycle again. So they are doing the best they can without incurring the expense of adding machinery and square footage. Unfortunately for us, that's just good business.
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I personally think this is not the same era as when it went from Obama to Trump. I do not believe the ammo manufacturers are not " invested in tooling up to expand capacity. Then Trump was elected President and the industry was hit with the "Trump slump." They had all that new capacity, and suddently demand fell off so they didn't need the capacity."

The demand now is the Highest in US history and rising more every day. I believe they are using it as a excuse. The real reason is the fact that the Liberals have been building and growing all the time to kill the 2nd amendment and the manufacturers are not rebuilding because of this. Will there ever be a slump again? I seriously doubt it. Unless the Democrats completely unravel, which seems to be the case now there is no chance for a slump. You will be lucky to even own a firearm. Most will be paper weights.
I believe the ammo manufacturers are playing both sides of the political fence. We all know the real reasons why the Demand is up and it "Ain't because it is a election year or the virus. Again that said, I believe the US is already started on a down hill course like a freight train to hell and America will wake the heck up and come to their senses as they watch this train in the coming years. And only then will the worm turn. But by then the damage will be staggering and God only knows were we will all be.
HOLD ON TO THE AMMO YOU DO HAVE NOW!
 
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A couple of months ago I clicked on the "Notify me when the ammo is available" button on Midway for about 40 different 9mm ammo brands and varieties. Every one that I looked at said "Not available" and to date I have not been notified about even one of those products available for me to buy. A friend told me he was able to buy two boxes of 50 of 9mm JHP's at a local gun show, at $80 a box! I'm not that desperate, at least not yet.
 
74A95 said:
What does "get their act together" mean?
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To me, it means reserving some of all these bullets they claim they're making to sell to their established [former] customer base. If they are truly making more bullets than ever, they could keep say one-third or one-half to sell on their own web site, and sell the rest to retailers like Midway. But they aren't doing that. I have been a direct-buy customer for more than fifteen years and, as far as I'm concerned, they have thrown me under the bus.

44 AMP said:
Just curious, if they don't have any bullets to sell to you, how can you be a customer???
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Yeah -- that's the point. Berry's doesn't seem to comprehend that. They keep sending me e-mails about their chintzy plastic ammo boxes. I don't want chintzy plastic ammo boxes -- I can buy those from MTM Case-Gard. What I want from Berry's is bullets.
 
FWIW, I was able to order 9mm at $26 a box of 50 from MidwayUSA today. Don't really need any but didn't want to pass up the opportunity so I ordered two boxes.
 
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