Grey Pilgrim:
The problem with McCain is that while he may get some support from the middle, he has already made enemies from the traditional, old line Republicans, who need only to be reminded of McCain-Feingold (AKA The Incumbent Protection Act) to just stay home or vote 3rd party. In other words, he'll never get nominated, no matter how much the media loves him. He's viewed as too much of a maverick.
Personally, I'm pulling for Condi. Since her fate resides on how well she does at State, I'd say that right now she's looking pretty good, based on what's been happening lately.
Again, the ABB'ers were already against Bush & crew, they are a known bunch. Yes, they will flock to Hillary (their true darling), but they won't be enough. Condi has more credibility, IMHO, and is an effective leader with real Foreign Policy (more so as her tenure at State progreses) and Intel creds, and doesn't have the closet skeletons that Hillary does. Condi also doesn't have the articulation problems that GWB has, and would be a good antidote to the GWB "idiot" meme that the 'Crats keep bouncing around (incorrectly, I might add).