Assuming that the error is evenly distributed and that there is no fraud in the hand count. You can pull the exact machine counts for each of the three counties ( cnn.com ) and note that as of this posting, Broward has counted 277 of 609 precincts, with Gore picking-up 68 votes. One must assume that on average, there are the same number of voters in each counted precinct as each uncounted one and that on average the counted and uncounted approximate the final Gore/Bush vote ratio. When you do the math for the other two counties, using the second machine count for a basis, Bush should have a 719 vote margin when the hand count is over. This assumes no fraud and that the machine to hand count tendency remains constant. The exact machine vote count for each county must be used, because both parties pick-up votes due to incompletely punched ballots. We assume that both pick-up votes at the same rate, but Gore has many more votes in these counties, so he gets the net gain. It is possible that my math was faulty, but the basis is sound. A major deviation from this is fraud, or the assumptions are wrong.
Do the Math on These Hand Counts Bush Will Win After Hand Counts
- Thread starter Gary H
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George Hill
Staff Alumnus
Never underestimate your enemy.
Bruce Dane
New member
Given the objective of the hand count, how in the world can you assume a random distribution of the count error and no fraud????? Quoting from Peggy Noonan’s excellent piece in the 11/17 issue of the Wall Street Journal – “they are not using hand-counting to determine who won, they are using hand-counting to win.” The outcome is clear to me: On Monday the Florida Supreme Court will allow the hand counting to continue and Gore will count until he “finds” enough votes to win. I fear this election is lost.
George Hill
Staff Alumnus
You may be right - thats Gore's sole purpose.
However - If you read FOX NEWS, there are detailed accounts of fraud in the handcounts. Bush's team has outright made the accusations that speak not to "human errors" like he did before... but calling a spade a spade and calling the handcount fraudulent.
I think the Supreame Court will acnowledge that (if there is ANY justice in Florida) and will not force Harris to certify these fraudulent recounted numbers.
The GOP has plenty of evidence to back up this claim while the Liberals can only retort that the GOP is "Ratcheting up the Rhetoric". While that might sound like a good legal case to the Liberal Media - that does not stand the light of truth legally in court.
Bush has won 4 times already... He'll be the winner in the end.
If not...
We can always have our Repubican students do SIT INS...
(all refrences to throwing lit molotovs edited out)
However - If you read FOX NEWS, there are detailed accounts of fraud in the handcounts. Bush's team has outright made the accusations that speak not to "human errors" like he did before... but calling a spade a spade and calling the handcount fraudulent.
I think the Supreame Court will acnowledge that (if there is ANY justice in Florida) and will not force Harris to certify these fraudulent recounted numbers.
The GOP has plenty of evidence to back up this claim while the Liberals can only retort that the GOP is "Ratcheting up the Rhetoric". While that might sound like a good legal case to the Liberal Media - that does not stand the light of truth legally in court.
Bush has won 4 times already... He'll be the winner in the end.
If not...
We can always have our Repubican students do SIT INS...
(all refrences to throwing lit molotovs edited out)
Actually, my point is that if you objectively look at the numbers that should reasonably arise from a hand count, it should be impossible for Gore to win. The fact that they are going through this must mean that they have a plan which drastically tilts things in favor of Gore. Judging by the recent past, most of this fraud will occur in Palm Beach. Remember, they are heavily watched and the Republicans are fighting every ballot. It will be hard, with these conditions, for them to make-up such a large number of votes.
George Hill
Staff Alumnus
True - But...
They have already FOUND 2,200 votes...
I suspect a hat-trick.
They have already FOUND 2,200 votes...
I suspect a hat-trick.
New numbers in take this estimate down to a Bush win by 692. I'm getting the hand count results from AP and then projecting as per the post. Over half the votes are in (Borward county). Here is latest report:
http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/national/ap141.htm
http://www.newsday.com/ap/text/national/ap141.htm
I believe that your math is accurate, but the powers that be do not concern themselves with such trivial things as the rules of mathematics. If rules of any kind applied, this election would have been over two Wednesday's ago.
I believe that the "re-count" numbers that are being released are intended to give the Bush team a false sense of security (why else would the Democrats be telling us that things look bad for them
). The Gore team does not want Bush to push the issue of the wrongly uncounted military absentee ballets (40% of those received) or any of the other instances of fraud. When the "official" re-count numbers are released, they will be whatever number Gore needs to steal this election.
I believe that the "re-count" numbers that are being released are intended to give the Bush team a false sense of security (why else would the Democrats be telling us that things look bad for them
). The Gore team does not want Bush to push the issue of the wrongly uncounted military absentee ballets (40% of those received) or any of the other instances of fraud. When the "official" re-count numbers are released, they will be whatever number Gore needs to steal this election.I don't believe that Gore will be able to easily dial in the number that he needs. Your suggestion regarding strategy may be correct, but so far AP has been fairly accurate. The biggest problem is that Gore wants to count the dimpled ballots which would be sufficient to overcome Bush's margin.
I guess that if that doesn't work, Gore will hire independent psychics who will be able to independently determine the will of the people.
Gore needs the Supreme Court decision to go his way and I suspect that it will not. This court has traditionally fought the Republicans on every issue, but this one is very public. I doubt that the decision will be 7-0. I think it is better than 50-50 that Bush gets the nod. Of course, conventional wisdom is against me on this one. Not only must they go against state law, but they must violate the equal protection clause of the very document that Clinton-Gore hate in order to side with Gore. I sure hope that these justices aren't in the Clinton FBI files!
I guess that if that doesn't work, Gore will hire independent psychics who will be able to independently determine the will of the people.
Gore needs the Supreme Court decision to go his way and I suspect that it will not. This court has traditionally fought the Republicans on every issue, but this one is very public. I doubt that the decision will be 7-0. I think it is better than 50-50 that Bush gets the nod. Of course, conventional wisdom is against me on this one. Not only must they go against state law, but they must violate the equal protection clause of the very document that Clinton-Gore hate in order to side with Gore. I sure hope that these justices aren't in the Clinton FBI files!
I still think Bush will win. The strategy:
1. Win in the Fla. SC--hand ballots do not count, election results certified, Bush wins.
2. SC rules against Bush. Mandate count of all overseas ballots (2000 not counted), Bush may win.
3. Overseas ballots not counted/not enough. Hold Gore's feet to the fire, demand entire state recount as he suggested, hopefully Bush can pick up the votes in the rest of the state.
I'm not giving up on this one.
1. Win in the Fla. SC--hand ballots do not count, election results certified, Bush wins.
2. SC rules against Bush. Mandate count of all overseas ballots (2000 not counted), Bush may win.
3. Overseas ballots not counted/not enough. Hold Gore's feet to the fire, demand entire state recount as he suggested, hopefully Bush can pick up the votes in the rest of the state.
I'm not giving up on this one.
George Hill
Staff Alumnus
2,200... That was the number of votes they "found" since the first recount.
How many do you think they could "find" again by hand? I bet they can find "just enough".
I suspect they were just waiting to see the overseas totals.
How many do you think they could "find" again by hand? I bet they can find "just enough".
I suspect they were just waiting to see the overseas totals.
Tom Matiska
New member
Gary H posted:
.....Oh ya, these figures also assume the same error rate for Palm Beach/Dade County machines as the Broward machines....
That is where the first recount went so wrong. The original vote in Palm Beach County went 63% Gore (less than 2-1)
The first Palm Beach recount found 751 new votes for Gore, 108 for Bush.( 6.95 to 1, let's say and even 7 to 1).
Other counties across the state found 5 votes here , 7 votes there, but Palm Beach found over 800 new ones in a pro Gore ratio that is not to be blieved.
Bush should probably be ahead by over 2400 if not for the suspicious first recount.
Tom
.....Oh ya, these figures also assume the same error rate for Palm Beach/Dade County machines as the Broward machines....
That is where the first recount went so wrong. The original vote in Palm Beach County went 63% Gore (less than 2-1)
The first Palm Beach recount found 751 new votes for Gore, 108 for Bush.( 6.95 to 1, let's say and even 7 to 1).
Other counties across the state found 5 votes here , 7 votes there, but Palm Beach found over 800 new ones in a pro Gore ratio that is not to be blieved.
Bush should probably be ahead by over 2400 if not for the suspicious first recount.
Tom
TheBluesMan
Moderator Emeritus
The Law
I think the rule of law needs to be followed, and nothing else.
If it is Gore's right to demand a re-count, then let him do it. If he is allowed by law to name the counties that do a recount, then let him do it. Like it or not, there is a system in place for doing this. That system, however flawed, must be followed; by the rules in place on election day. There are people who are empowered to oversee this effort. Regardless of who appointed or elected them, they need to be allowed to do their job, unencumbered.
The judicial branch of the government, IMO, should have nothing to do with the election. Nothing!
I think the rule of law needs to be followed, and nothing else.
If it is Gore's right to demand a re-count, then let him do it. If he is allowed by law to name the counties that do a recount, then let him do it. Like it or not, there is a system in place for doing this. That system, however flawed, must be followed; by the rules in place on election day. There are people who are empowered to oversee this effort. Regardless of who appointed or elected them, they need to be allowed to do their job, unencumbered.
The judicial branch of the government, IMO, should have nothing to do with the election. Nothing!
Broward has counted another seventy-six precincts and if AP is correct, they have failed to pick-up a single vote.
Prediction after 445 of 609 precincts: Bush wins by: 723
I don't know why their move to counting dimples has not produced more votes. Looks good. Of course, the real crooks are in Palm Beach and they aren't releasing their vote totals.
Prediction after 445 of 609 precincts: Bush wins by: 723
I don't know why their move to counting dimples has not produced more votes. Looks good. Of course, the real crooks are in Palm Beach and they aren't releasing their vote totals.
Will Beararms
New member
The toilet scum have vowed to take today's Palm Beach County revote decison to the their Supreme Court in Fl. Right now any assuming will make an ass out of you and me.
I think the toilet scum want to keep this thing tied up so that the FL tally won't be in for the 12/18 Electorial College vote.
I have dealt with others like the toilet scum and the only way to get through to them is to beat the crap out of them-------nothing else works. Toilet scum will not shut up and they will not obey anything that does not have brute force consequences tied directly to it.
I think the toilet scum want to keep this thing tied up so that the FL tally won't be in for the 12/18 Electorial College vote.
I have dealt with others like the toilet scum and the only way to get through to them is to beat the crap out of them-------nothing else works. Toilet scum will not shut up and they will not obey anything that does not have brute force consequences tied directly to it.
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