Defensive Shooting Statistics

For example, statistics for a Los Angeles, CA surburb wouldn't be germane to Spartanburg, SC. The areas are just to different.
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Not really. Human nature is human nature, behavior is behavior, and we don't see that much variation based just on location. A store robbery is much the same whether it be in LA or SC. Personal interactions tend to be quite similar assuming similar cultural imperatives. As Glenn points out the stats aren't real broad, but what stats there are tend to reflect certain commonalities.
 
Glen

I don't see moderator beside your name. You won't tell me what to post and what not to post. Mind your own business and if you don't like my posts, don't read them. If you are reading this Glen, please tell us what your credentials are that make you think that you are so important. Even if you do have good credentials, you never learned very good behavior. You are rude and condesending to others on this board. Nuff said.
 
Ummm, Glenn is one of the more sensible and informed posters around here, and was right. The info you want is not a public forum issue and not relevant to this topic. So I have sent you a PM.
 
Good forum behavior consists of staying with the thread and not to thread hi-jack.

I should not have to ignore posts that pollute a thread with some personality conflict.

Even this reply violates this principle and I regret it. However, my comment on your behavior was embedded in my intelligent discussion of statistical prediction. In that I am well trained. Thus, I wasted a few electrons.

The OP wanted some info - a legitimate request. From being a scholar of the issue - I contribute:

1. Similar stats to the SOP-9 really don't exist. Experts in civilian DGUs say that.
2. Some methodologies exist that could determine such. Like I said, such work is starting in small defined areas - I've seen two studies on the shotgun and rifle homocides. But they aren't useful in determining tactical decisions, they were more for forensic usage by medical examiners.
3. I extrapolate on where folks will go with the statistics - overuse of central tendency as a predictor most situations and not taking into account extremes and multivariate interactions.
4. Folks overvalue one or two cases - they are good cautionary tales but aren't great grounds for generalities.

I regret for Tincup Al - that we don't have good data.
 
David

Thanks for the PM. Very informative. As far a Glenn goes. Whether he is a good poster on this board or not, whether your personal information that I asked for was pertinent to this thread or not, nothing excuses poor behavior. Information can be communicated in a manner that does not involve the use of condesending or insulting language. The value of his contributions to this board become diminished when this type of behavior is excercised. Common courtesy has not gone out of style and should be excercised on this board or in any other aspect of life. I'm sure that I'm not the only person that frequents this board thinks that what I am saying has merit.
 
Nobody asked for your "factual statement". That is the job of the board staff. As I said, you do not have moderator by your name. If you want to be a moderator, maybe the staff would welcome you. Until such time, keep your opinions to my posts to yourself or PM the mods and let them handle it. I don't tell you what to post and what not to post and I certainly think that David is capable of handling himself.
 
My thanks to everyone who has contributed to this this thread. There have been some good points brought up. I would like to share the information that I have gathered and the conclusions that I have made up to this point.

I have been looking for just some basic info such as the average shots fired during an encounter, distance, hits or misses, time of day, etc. . Most of the information that I have been able to come up with has involved law enforcement. Other than the fact that LEO's are more likely to be involved, and in some cases don't have the obligation to retreat, I think that the information is very relevant to the general public. I think the information is about the same no matter who is pulling the trigger.

For example, I have determined that the majority ( there are exceptions ) of gunfights are over in 5 shots or less. More shootings occur at night. The majority of gunfights are at a distance of 10 feet or less. The average hits per shots fired is 50 percent. ( and that is at the 10 feet or less distance )

To summarize. The majority of gunfights are at 10 feet or less, with 5 shots or less being fired, and half of those 5 shots hitting their target. Now, there are a lot of other variables, but this is good information to know. These are statistics that are not new to some people, but are to others. I was looking for actual documents that prove these are true. I found what I was looking for with the help of the people on this thread. Thank you.

If anyone has anymore insight into this, I would appreciate hearing it. Thank you.
 
Al,

I believe you’re pretty close about the 50% hit ratio for civilian shootings. Oddly enough, the hit ratio for police is much lower and for BGs it’s much higher – 90%+. That’s because the BGs don’t start shooting unless they’re sure the fight is going to go their way. Their goal is to get close and use surprise.
Cops and civilians usually start shooting as a response to attack. When you start “behind the power curve”, your accuracy suffers.

In this society, if someone is looking at you in a hostile manner, the normal reaction is to look away. You think you’re saying, “I don’t want any trouble”. The BG is hearing, “I won’t fight you. I’m a victim”.

Stay alert. If someone looks suspicious, watch him and make sure he knows you’re watching him.
It’s rude to stare. Tough. He’ll get over it and you’ll get to go home.
 
There is actually quite a bit of information in the last few years of the New York Police Department's Firearms discharge report. The 50% hit ratio is an eye opener. Not to start the whole semi versus revolver debate, but that 5 shot revolver that suddenly has 2 to 3 good shots in it will make you think. I know that the reports that I have been reading includes a lot of 5 shot revolvers, but it still makes you think that a few more rounds could be comforting.

Japle, where did you find your statistics ? Thanks
 
What is your exact title? What field experience do you have with criminal violence? Are you a military veteran with any combat experience? If you have been involved in some type of use of firearms what was that experience and what was the long term ramifications of that action such as department investigations, civil or criminal charges, or personal problems as a result of that activity?
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The staff is not interested in expending the effort to investigate and generate dossiers on "experts" in order to verify that they are who they say they are.

Therefore such inquiries are largely pointless. If the person wishes to respond and attempt to set himself up as an expert based on his credentials and experience then he may make the attempt, but by so doing he opens himself to more personal criticism than is generally acceptable at TFL.

If the person does not wish to respond then that's the end of it.

Given that the person has not responded I'd say that's the end of it.
 
Try downloading some video clips from live leak.com or some other youtube type source. You can see real footage of shootout, robberies and assaults. Most are very close like 3 yards, very fast with both side exchanging rapid fire until they are empty. Most shots dont hit anything, and most of the people are firing without aiming. They are ducking and firing over their heads. And the bad guys are usually the ones that shoot first.

One good one I saw was a robberie in a Thailand gold shop. Not that this was good, but the video was very clear, it showed tactical errors and it showed good effect of what happens when people get shot. 3 guys come in blasting with pistols. A cop/security gaurd is in the back office. He comes out shooting and drops 2 guys in the shop right away. He runs out the front door to go after the 3rd guy. As he runs past the 2 guys on the ground, one isn't dead yet. He's laying on his back and fires one shot above his head. It hits the cop in the side of the ribs. The cop falls down imediately and his body slid a little it. He didn't even twitch. It looks as if he died instantly before he even hit the ground. The guy that shot him lowers his arm and dies just about 5 seconds later. They all were using FMJ or round nose bullets. Everything happend at a distance of about 2-4 yards. It lasted about 5 seconds with about 12 rounds total being fired. Everyone droped immediately after being shot. The one bad guy was only able to move one arm just a few seconds, but unfortunatley thats all it took. A shop girl who was behind the counter was also shot and killed. In all 4 people died and one bad guy got away. Sad the they didn't ask for anything, they just came in shooting intending to kill everyone inside.
 
history lessons

While history might teach us about what already happened, it is unreasonable for us to expect it to teach us what will happen.

History taught me I will not get to decide what happens.
What happens will be unique to my immediate circumstance.
Why we "prepare for the unexpected".

I have lived all over this great country, and in my actual experience there is a definite difference in human behavior based on region.


There are no statistics for what happens to me, and history will be decided by the survivors.
I am an expert at surviving; my credentials are that I am still here.
 
Japle, where did you find your statistics?
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Mas Ayoob, Dave Spaulding, Gabe Suarez, John Farnam and other places I can’t remember offhand.
Of course, as my wife will tell you, sometimes I just make stuff up!!
 
Originally posted by Japle:
I don’t believe that police and civilian shootings are similar enough to be of much help. Cops often get into gunfights because they’re searching for BGs, doing raids, working under cover, etc. Civilians, at least the smart ones, do their best to stay away from situations where they might get into trouble. Cops run toward the sound of gunfire. We run the other way.
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Or get into a safe place and let the threat come to us.

I think that's an extremely good comment, relevant not only to the question at hand but also to many other discussion topics regarding firearm choice, tactics and strategy, etc. Same comment applies to SEALS, Special Operations Command forces, FBI....
 
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Oddly enough, the hit ratio for police is much lower and for BGs it’s much higher – 90%+.
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Not so odd when you consider the police role and how it impacts the shooting decision. Also, if you look at the BG hit rate in actual gunfights with the police, the hit rates are very similar.
 
While history might teach us about what already happened, it is unreasonable for us to expect it to teach us what will happen.
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But it is quite reasonable to expect that history will teach us what is likely to happen, and thus it can guide our training and our planning. That is the essence of this kind of stuff. While we might not be able to predict events with a 100% success rate that doesn't mean that we can't or shouldn't make any predictions at all.
 
Past history is useful as it gives us a range of possibilities. Not to beat a dead horse, IMHO - the problem is the use of central tendency to assume that is close to what always happens and that folks need to take a serious looks at what extreme situations do you deal with.

For example, thinking about this thread going to the office - I pondered the average distance of a gun fight. It's said to be short. However, that's the usual single mugger, dude in the living scenario.

It is a rare but not impossible situation to face a rampage shooter. The length of our hallways, leading to a target rich classroom, from my office is about 50 yards. IIRC, an AF MP took down a rampage shooter with an M9 at 75 yards. So, does the average distance based on mostly property crime distance aid me in thinking about a work place nutso scenario?

The reports of central tendency is what you typically get from gun rag stats. Ayoob, Farnam, etc. may mention the average and but having met and trained with them - they are also aware that isn't the only game in town.

Forensic literature found that with rifle homocides - 85% or so took place at a significant distance. However, there are more handgun homocides. So is a simple distance average enough?
 
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