Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu

T

TheBluesMan

Moderator Emeritus
Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
By GARDINER HARRIS
October 8, 2005

WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents that would justify quarantines. Written by health officials, the plan does yet address responses by the military or other governmental departments.

The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

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Read the rest of the article here

Question: Has there ever in history been a flu pandemic in which two million or more people died? I honestly don't know, but it seems unlikely.

I can't help but focus on the words of H.L. Mencken: The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed - and hence clamorous to be led to safety - by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

-Dave
 
Here is another one:

"Low levels Francisella tularensis detected by air monitors in Washington DC area" as reported by the CDC. Not that I would care much if DC was ummm..... :eek:


As I would see it the biggest threat from the bird flu, would need to be handled at the local level, more specifically at an international ariport. Get one person infected on one flight, and just think how many people could come in direct/indirect contact with that one person in say 24 hours? Just food for thought when it comes to trying to control outbreaks.
 
The last flu pandemic occurred around WWI, with the Spanish flu. It killed thousands in the U.S.

The problem with influenza is that it's a constantly mutating creation. As pointed out, international travel spreads it far and wide. Remember the SARS virus of just a few years ago.

Our problem is that the various companies producing the vaccines are also in the business of making money. They have limited capacities to manufacture this substance. The plan will allow the United States to develop the capability to quickly manufacture massive doses of this material in short time-spans.

This is the FIRST actual attempt to do so. Nobody ever gave it a thought prior to this. How can it be a bad thing? The President is trying something new here, actually being prepared. :eek:
 
1. Yes, there was an epidemic in 1918 that killed at least 20 million(including 675,000 Americans)http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
2. We can never be ready for such an incident--the best they could do is quarentine using the military
3. This is hysteria at this point. The "bird flu" is currently in the Asian continent. It has killed a total of 65 people. The strain has only been transferred from bird to human(so only people in direct contact with sick birds) and the ONLY way this "could" become more serious is if the strain ever became transferable from human to human--not likely but possible.
4. At this time when there is no epidemic, we have enough vaccine for about 2% of the population---however since it hasn't gone from human to human it leaves enough time to develop much more vaccines.
 
Great link, MoW. Thanks! :) There's a small cemetery on the shores of Seneca Lake in SE Ohio that has about two dozen headstones in it. Many of them are from the fall of 1918 and mark the graves of people who died in their first two decades of life. This would be consistant with the information at MoW's link.

With the increased population of the United States, I suppose a similar outbreak is possible. I don't believe that it would be as deadly, though, due to the advances in medicine since 1918.

JR47 said:
How can it be a bad thing?
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Well, they're talking about spending billions of dollars preparing for something that is a rather doubtful possibility. I'm not convinced that it is a necessary or prudent expenditure of my tax dollars.
 
I don't believe that it would be as deadly, though, due to the advances in medicine since 1918.
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Bird flu is deadlier than the 1918 strain and would probably kill more folk despite advances in medicine.

There is an excllent book on the 1918 pandemic, cant recall the title, but based on what I read in that book, Im not gonna complain about Uncle Sammy prepping

WildachooAlaska
 
The CDC is actually reviving the 1918 strain to research if it can provide clues to the new strain.

One thing that you have to remember is that antibotics have been so abused since it was created that the strains are starting to become "immune" to them.

And you have to remember that since the advance of medicines, that everytime that we get a sniffle or a small virus we go running to the doctors who give us pills, which the body starts to depend upon moreso than it's own immune system.

So it's very plausible that a new strain could be just as deadly as the 1918 strain even with our advance medications.

Wayne
 
Oh, forgot to add:

If you buy those dog treats at Costco that are made with real chicken breasts, the chicken that it's made from is from China.

Gives you something to think about doesn't it.

Wayne
 
There will be another great pandemic, it's inevitable.

And it will start in China, where people live in close proximity to pigs and chickens, where a virus can jump from species to speces mutating the whole time. Eventually one will develop that will rival or surpass the Spanish influensa in deadlyness, and with modern transportation and dense urban areas, will spread faster than anything in history.
 
The 1918 pandemic was the big one.

But, there have been TWO pandemics since that time, the Asian flu in 1957, and the Hong Kong flue in 1968.

Both were MUCH milder than the 1918-1919 flu, but both still killed thousands of people in the United States.

The 1970s Swine Flu scare was just that, a scare, but initially the virus showed every hallmark of being a virulent pathogenic flu, which propted the disasterous vaccination program.


USP:

"One thing that you have to remember is that antibotics have been so abused since it was created that the strains are starting to become "immune" to them."

Influenza is caused by a virus. Viri are immune to the effects of antibiotics; they do absolutely nothing. Antibiotics are only effective again bacteria.

Viri mutate extremely readily, and do so without any influence from antibiotics.

The overuse of antibiotics in cases where they are not called for (flu, common cold) has been a major reason for why resistent bacteria are now proliferating.
 
The ability to produce huge quantities of vaccines is useful for more than a flu outbreak. Today, with the advent of international terrorism, it's all too probable that they will attempt to purchase, or develop, a biological weapon. Some of these fruitcakes actually believe that Allah will spare the faithful, so are MUCH more dangerous.

The ability to respond to such an evolution will require that the ability to manufacture immense quantities of vaccines in short periods of time.

No matter what we do, somebody won't like it. If the government, which isn't in the pharmaceuticals business, doesn't have the ability to vaccinate the population against a flu epidemic, then it's not doing it's job. If that same government wishes to develop a means to manufacture literally hundreds of millions of doses of vaccine, then it's just wasting the tax-payers money. You can't have it both ways. There are over 275,000,000 people in the USA. NOTHING can be done in a half-assed manner that will protect them. The money, by the way, is scheduled to be invested over the next 5-10 years.
 
Rapid production of vaccines is probably a pipe dream.

Current flu vaccines are a cocktail of current and previous virus'.

If and when the bird flu mutates to be able to spread human to human, it may be a different base type. By the time the virus is isolated it will be on our shores. By the time the chicken egg method is used to grow the virus to produce a vaccine, the bodies will be piling up and those not destined to die will be recovering on their own and watching the virus complete its cycle of decimating Africa and South America which are less travelled.

The end.

PS: Wait till AIDS figures out how to survive as an aerosol. aah, aaaaahhhh, aaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
 
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Rapid production of vaccines is probably a pipe dream.
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'Nuff said. Anyone who believes it's just a question of some fat-cat manufacturers retooling for a different "run" is dreaming.

Life is dangerous, People. If not, we wouldn't die. Get over it and protect your own as best you can.
Rich
 
You can't be prepared for a genetic mutation that has not taken place and will be utterly unique. When it happens, I suggest you have an intact and vigorous immune system.

Wearing a surgical mask and washing your hands often helps too.

When it breaks out, I am going to keep my mouth and nose buried in the cleavage of a solid gold stripper and disinfect my throat with massive amounts of alcohol.
 
Bird flu isn't transmitted from human to human at all nor from bird to human in less than filthy living conditions.

Best way to protect from bird flu is 1) don't let the chickens and ducks nest under your bed 2) don't thicken your soup with bird doo doo 3) wash your hands every week or two whether you need it or not 4) don't eat birds that drop dead in your front yard.


Next thing you know they'll find out that GWB isn't ready for the zombie attack nor TEOTWAWKI either! :eek:
 
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