Munir:
I don't think you should be too astounded by such large numbers. Figure out some time the odds of flipping a coin 1,000,000 times and getting heads every time. Its a very big number. "But that's unrealistic, that's not ever going to happen!" That's the point -- it is so unlikely that this data is real that it is unimaginably remote and unreasonable to believe it.
After making my original post, I read the footnote (too late) that indicated that Dr. Carroll Peters, Professor of Engineering at the University of Tennessee, did not, in fact, publish an article based on his analysis. I apologize that I did not read the footnote before posting the quote. However, I find your suggestion that such men as Dr. Fackler and Dr. Carroll Peters are "wacko" to be highly insulting. I suggest you look into their education, list of publications, background and memberships in professional organizations and find out what their peers think of them before making such accusations. What, exactly, are your qualifications for judging such men and on what do you base your judgements?
Keep in mind, however, that his analysis is one of many. The pages of the quarterly journal put out by IWBA have many such articles. Here is a (rather lengthy -- my apologies) quote from probably the least technical of those articles. No big numbers, just some simple statements based on simple math that even I can follow (I am not trained in statistics). The original article, "Discrepancies in the Marshall & Sanow "Data Base": An Evaluation Over Time", By Maarten van Maanen, can be found in full
here. It is a reprint from Wound Ballistics Review; 4(2), 1999: 9-13.
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...negative numbers mean that fewer cases are reported in a later Reference, which is in total contradiction to everything that Marshall & Sanow have claimed in developing their "data base." ...why has no mention of this manipulation of the "data base" ever been mentioned? Any kind of secret reevaluation of the results is a clear-cut violation of any form of doing research because it is one form of "fudging" the data.
Obviously, most of the caliber/load combinations which show a "one-shot stop" percentage of 100% do not seem realistic. ...the .380 ACP Federal 90-grain JHP, which has a sudden jump from 65% to 100% between the second and third data sets and a 41% difference between the first and third data sets. ...why are rounds like the .357 Magnum, .45 ACP or .44 Magnum not showing the same results?
.... Look at the .45 ACP CCI 200-grain JHP ammo. From 74% in 1988, the 1988 to 1992 data set shows 19 stops in 16 cases, a 119% effectiveness. This, of course, is simply impossible. Yet, Table 2 shows there are eight caliber/load combinations in which such impossible greater than 100% ratings have been produced by Marshall & Sanow during one of the data taking intervals.
These greater than 100% stopping percentage or negative numbers (showing mysterious disappearing shootings) are fairly described as misrepresentations because they demonstrate conclusively that the Marshall & Sanow "data base" is not as it has been claimed to be. Specifically:
Marshall & Sanow have claimed to have continuously collected their "data base" of shootings over time; this makes having fewer shootings in particular caliber and load combinations at later dates impossible, but eight such conditions exist in their "data base."
Marshall & Sanow have eight particular caliber and load combinations that show a completely impossible greater than 100% "one-shot stop" percentages in their "data base."
Conclusion
The simple analysis procedure I have used show a clear basis for claims of unreasonable characteristics in the Marshall & Sanow "data base" in earlier reviews. ....
I believe the Marshall & Sanow "data base" is completely discredited by the impossible conditions shown to exist in it.
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Based on such a simple analysis of the M&S data, why should anyone take their conclusions seriously? If I told you a martian landed in my backyard tonight and told me silver bullets will result in 99.99% one-shot stops, would you think that maybe I'm half right so maybe you should alternate silver bullet rounds with lead bullet rounds? It just makes no sense.
Again, I want to say to those who believe in light/fast 9mm based on experience, other data or other analysis (or even a gut feeling!), my point does not apply to you. You may or may not be right, but at least you're not basing your decision on a bogus "data base"!
[This message has been edited by adad (edited June 05, 2000).]
[This message has been edited by adad (edited June 05, 2000).]