Alito Confirmation begins.

Al Norris

Moderator Emeritus
Going on this morning (right now, in fact) is the Senate Judiciary Committee's final speeches and then the vote to recommend (or not) the confirmation of Judge Alito.

Tomorrow will start the full Senate hearings, should the committee pass the confirmation on. I predict that the vote today will be 10 - yea and 8 - nay. Straight down party lines. Sen. Leahy (D. VT) has already said he will oppose the nomination in a speech he gave to Georgetown U. last week.

Regardless, this will go to the full Senate.
 
Not a bad prediction ...

I predict that the vote today will be 10 - yea and 8 - nay. Straight down party lines.

The New York Times, The Associated Press

TUESDAY, JANUARY 24, 2006
WASHINGTON

Alito nomination heads to vote by full Senate

The Judiciary Committee favorably recommended Samuel Alito's Supreme Court nomination to the full Senate on a party-line vote Tuesday, ensuring prospects that the conservative jurist will join the high court bench.

All 10 Republicans voted for Alito, while all 8 Democrats voted against him. The partisan vote was almost preordained, with 15 of the 18 senators announcing their votes even before the committee's session began.

The full Senate expects to take a final vote on Alito's nomination before the end of the week. That vote is also expected to follow party lines, with only one Democrat - Ben Nelson of Nebraska - coming out so far in support of Alito. Republicans hold the balance of power in the Senate, 55-44, with one independent. (AP)

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/24/news/notes.php

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Any guesses on the Senate vote?

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I understand the vegas odds are: 58-42. But I think a more realistic 54-46 is much more likely. That and some minor party jumping.
 
Alito seems totally qualified to sit on the Supreme Court. The judiciary committee hearings were a farce. I hope Bush gets to nominate another Supreme Court justice, things would get interesting fast. The Democrats are an embarrassment and the Repubicans pretty much rubber stamped Bush's nomination. I always wondered why the firearms issue didn't come up?
 
The current debate has Yeas = 45 Nays = 21

So far, Nelson (D-NE) has indicated he will vote Yea. No Republicans have indicated they will vote Nay.
 
Well as long as you are predicting then what effect will he have on the 2nd amendment?

25

then I will give you mine LOL:D
 
For those who dont care to watch heres the debate: Various Democrats will get up and pander to their special interst group constiuencies by alleging that Alitos confirmation means the total destruction of the American way of life...coathangers, pink ribbons and Red flags will be bandied about, Cindy Sheehan will marry Cesar Chavez and Ted kennedy (if it isnt into cocktail hour ands hes incoherent) will rail about Alitos record on women while Mary Jo Kopechne turns over in her grave

Alito will be confirmed and the circus will move on to the next issue

WildhaveimissedanythingAlaska
 
model 25 said:
Well as long as you are predicting then what effect will he have on the 2nd amendment?
Alito has already said that as long as the Congress ties gun control to the Commerce Clause, he's fine with it. What's to predict?

The ONLY way to affect the Second Amendment (for the better) is to get the Court to recognize limits to the Commerce Clause itself. Without overturning Wickard v Filburn, there's little hope in that respect.
 
Alito has already said that as long as the Congress ties gun control to the Commerce Clause, he's fine with it. What's to predict?

The ONLY way to affect the Second Amendment (for the better) is to get the Court to recognize limits to the Commerce Clause itself. Without overturning Wickard v Filburn, there's little hope in that respect.

So what social effect will he have?

25
 
So what social effect will he have?


He will have a vote on the outcome of every case brought before the Supreme Court for the next 25 years +/-. This is not like a vote in Congress or the Senate. This is one vote in 9. His term will never expire (until he does) nor will he face re-election. Rulings of the court often balance on 1 vote. IMHO the importance of the politics of a Supreme Court Justice trumps that of the President. Appointment of Justices is what made a Bush win in the last election so important to us avid Red Staters.
 
He will have a vote on the outcome of every case brought before the Supreme Court for the next 25 years +/-. This is not like a vote in Congress or the Senate. This is one vote in 9. His term will never expire (until he does) nor will he face re-election. Rulings of the court often balance on 1 vote. IMHO the importance of the politics of a Supreme Court Justice trumps that of the President. Appointment of Justices is what made a Bush win in the last election so important to us avid Red Staters.
__________________


so is this a good thing?

25
 
hope you guys are right

I am afraid of a lopsided court:eek: Alot can happen to topple our rights or take the American life and put it into turmoil. Too far right is just as bad as too far left and I am hoping that things will be ok for us. Having seen what extreems the left court goes to I hate to think of the extreems the right is capable of.

25
 
Filibuster?

Kerry, Other Democrats Threaten Alito Filibuster
Thursday, January 26, 2006

WASHINGTON — Massachusetts Sens. John Kerry and Edward Kennedy, along with a small number of other Senate Democrats, have threatened a filibuster to block the vote for Judge Samuel Alito's confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court, FOX News has learned.

"Judge Alito has consistently made it harder for Americans to have their day in court. He routinely defers to the power of the government, no matter how extreme. And he doesn’t believe women have a right to privacy that’s protected by the Constitution," Kerry said in a statement.

"The president has every right to nominate Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court. It’s our right and our responsibility to oppose him vigorously and to fight against this radical upending of the Supreme Court," he added before announcing he would return to Washington early on Friday from Davos, Switzerland, where a Senate delegation was attending the World Economic Forum.

But a senior Democratic leadership aide told FOX News on Thursday that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and a majority of Democrats "do not support this action by Kerry and Kennedy. It is not politically advantageous for us."

The Senate's No. 2 Democrat said earlier in the day that while he opposes Alito, he thought it unlikely that Democrats would try to mount a filibuster.

"Having made a count, I have come to the conclusion that it is highly unlikely that a filibuster would succeed," said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

"There's been adequate time for people to debate," Reid added.

But on the Senate floor late Thursday, Kennedy said support is growing for a filibuster, and Durbin, along with Sens. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and Paul Sarbanes of Maryland would back an attempt.

Republicans, however, have already said they'll have the 60 votes needed in the Senate to break a filibuster and end the debate, so such a threat probably won't have an impact.

"When you have the number of senators who have stated their intention to vote for cloture plus the number of senators who stated their intentions to vote for Judge Alito, you come to 60 or more," said Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa.

A cloture vote, which would end a potential filibuster, is scheduled for Monday at 4:30 p.m. EST; if cloture is approved, the final vote would be scheduled for Tuesday at 11 a.m EST.

"It is time to establish an end point" in the debate over President Bush's selection, Frist, R-Tenn., said.

If confirmed, Alito will be replacing retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. His swearing-in could come within an hour of confirmation.

Earlier Thursday, Alito picked up two new Democratic supporters, Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia and Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota. They join Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, along with 52 Republicans, who have so far publicly pledged to vote for the conservative judge.

"His obvious intelligence, his obvious sincerity lead me to believe him to be an honorable man, a man who loves his country, loves his Constitution and man who will give of his best," Byrd said.

FOX News' Trish Turner, Brian Wilson and Catherine Donaldson-Evans contributed to this report.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,182933,00.html
 
Kerry I think, has sealed his fate. Even if he gets a nomination in 2008, there is no way he will win another presidential bid. The democrats have pretty much become irrelevant in todays politics, and this charade with the Alito nominations has proven that they are spiteful and vindictive when they don't get their way. It has been a huge turn-off to Americans in general.

Besides, even the Dems are getting tired of his constant whining.
 
If there is a fillibuster, I'm not so sure that the Republicans would exercise the "nuclear" option, at least not for awhile.

Let Kerry, Kennedy, or another fillibuster. The Senate will grind to a halt. No voting on anything else. Let the fillibuster-er (:p ) whine and attack, hour after hour after hour. Meanwhile, no other important legislation can be debated and/or passed; the President will make great hay out of this ("the security of our Country is being threatened by this fillibuster..."), while television and print commercials will show alternating cuts of the fillibuster-er endlessly whining and attacking, and Judge Alito's wife crying.

My prediction? The Republicans will allow the fillibuster to occur for a good period of time. It will be a public relations disaster for the Democrats, including those Democrats who don't necessarily agree with the fillibuster.
 
Fremmer, they changed the rules on filibusters, quite a while back.

Nowadays, time is alloted for the current debate(s) and other time is spent on usual business. So in effect, what we get is an hour or two a day on the debate that is being filibustered, while the rest is business as usual.

I like the old way, myself. You want to hold the floor... Then hold it as long as you can!
 
:eek: Dang....and I thought that I learned everything I needed to know about parlimentary procedure from Mr. Smith goes to Washington.....:p No prolonged speech until passing out, wetting pants, etc? How boring is that?

I still think the democrats did a lousy smear job during the Alito Hearings. I mean, come on!!! I expect better that a half-hearted, "we respect you, but we're 'deeply troubled' and 'seriously concerned' (and by the way, we'll go ahead and imply that you're racist and sexist because you belonged to that terrible group in college)." Perhaps the democrats can redeem themselves the next time. ;)

Edited to add: you do realize that Karl Rove [:eek: KARL ROVE :eek: ] planned the whole wife-crying thing, don't you? :D
 
Fremmer, they changed the rules on filibusters, quite a while back.

Nowadays, time is alloted for the current debate(s) and other time is spent on usual business.
Somebody on some message board said that Frist has promised no other business in the event of a filibuster. It might be true, and he might even stick to it. It would be great political theatre, if nothing else... ;) (Are the Dems dumb enough to step in that steaming pile?)
 
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